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Introduction

The EU and the Euro, which were once seen as key to its economic strength have contributed to some major problems over the last five years which have destabilized the region. Although the EU has now recovered after the recession and most countries are posting some minor growth, in many countries the traditional parties are losing votes to new parties arising both on the right and the left.

Scope of this research
Find out how Europe's economy is fairing at the start of 2015.
Assess which countries are expected to experience some unusual voting behavior in 2015.
Look at how certain sovereign credit rating have fared in Europe.
Learn what is causing instability in Europe.
Establish what the risks for businesses and investors might be.

Research and analysis highlights

There are a number of factors developing in Europe which are making the EU project less stable. A poor economy, less tolerant attitudes towards immigration, rise of the new left, fluctuating energy prices and the threat of separation from the EU are all contributing to concern over the region’s future.

Europe was particularly tumultuous in 2014 with a number of economic, political and social issues causing discussion as to the future of the economic trading bloc. The Ukraine crisis, economic woes of Greece and Spain, changing attitudes to immigration and the EU in Germany and the UK, and unpredictable elections culminating in a difficult 2015.

The economy is the most crucial factor affecting and exacerbating some of the other destabilizing elements. Work needs to be done to jump start the European economy, and perhaps in the long run low oil and consumer prices may help to achieve this.

Key reasons to purchase this research
Why is Europe's economy growing slowly?
Why are voters turning to more unconventional parties?
How likely is a separation within the EU?
Could 2015 see wholesale change in Europe?

Table Of Contents

Instability in Europe: Changing situation in Europe may cause problems for business in 2015
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Overview 2
Catalyst 2
Summary 2
Current destabilizing elements 6
Poor state of Europe's economy 6
Immigration and new steps toward the right 6
Anti-austerity and anti-capitalism movements formed 7
Energy prices are likely to be a hinge factor in Europe's future 7
Countries with expected problems in 2015 8
UK 8
Scottish Independence 9
Ukraine 9
Sweden 10
Greece 10
Spain 13
Catalonia Independence 14
Germany 14
France 14
Conclusions 15
The economic situation is the exacerbating political factor 15
This could be bad for business in Europe 15
This instability may be beneficial in the long term 15
Appendix 17
Sources 17
Further Reading 17
Ask the analyst 18
About MarketLine 18
Disclaimer 18


LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Russian sovereign risk credit ratings 10
Table 2: Greece sovereign risk credit ratings 12
Table 3: Spain sovereign risk credit ratings 13


TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Pablo Iglesias Podemos party leader 7
Figure 2: UK change in party membership 8
Figure 3: Greek polling data to January 2015 12


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