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Operators need to focus on driving data usage and using bundles to retain customers.

Front cover of mobile services in Europe
Mobile service revenue and subscriber numbers are declining, which poses significant challenges for mobile operators.
Mobile data represents a growth opportunity for operators – they must concentrate on retaining customers and driving data usage.

This report and data annex provide:
a 5-year forecast of almost 64 mobile key performance indicators (KPIs) for 2 regions (Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe), and 14 countries.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) — countries modelled individually: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey
Western Europe (WE) — countries modelled individually: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, UK

Table Of Contents

The Mobile services in Europe: forecasts and analysis 2014-2019

Table of contents


About this report


Executive summary


Mobile revenue is declining in Western Europe as operators compete for customers, and 4G service take-up will not prevent this


Mobile revenue will decline in most countries in Central and Eastern Europe because of OTT substitution and mobile termination rate cuts


Revenue and connection trends in Europe


Mobile handset service revenue and ARPU will decline in Europe between 2014 and 2019


Mobile subscriber numbers in Europe will be flat because multiple-SIM ownership is declining but the population is increasing


Handset ASPU will decline in Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe, despite increased usage of mobile data


Western Europe


Summary of mobile market KPIs for Western Europe


Population penetration of handset and mobile broadband SIMs is peaking in many Western European markets


Most mobile connections in Western Europe will be 4G by 2018


Users in Western Europe will continue to migrate to mobile next-generation networks


Smartphone and LTE take-up will be key factors in preventing further decline in mobile handset ARPU in Western Europe


The number of mobile broadband connections in Western Europe will increase between 2014 and 2019, driven by connected tablets


Central and Eastern Europe


Summary of mobile market KPIs for Central and Eastern Europe


Mobile service revenue will decline in five of the six Central and Eastern European countries featured in this report - Turkey is the exception


4G will become the main mobile technology by 2019 in three of the six countries in Central and Eastern Europe


Take-up of LTE in Central and Eastern Europe will be slow in 2014-2015, but will gain momentum to account for 37% of connections in 2019


Smartphones will account for 80% of handsets in Central and Eastern Europe in 2019, and 37% of connections will be 4G


Mobile broadband connections will peak in Central and Eastern Europe in 2016 as tethering becomes a viable option


About the authors and Analysys Mason


List of figures


Figure 1: Mobile service revenue (excluding M2M) and ARPU, Western Europe , 2014-2019


Figure 2: Mobile service revenue (excluding M2M) and revenue change by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014 and 2019


Figure 3: Mobile handset service revenue and ARPU, by region, 2014-2019


Figure 4: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe , 2014-2019


Figure 5: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2019


Figure 6: Mobile ASPU by type, Western Europe, 2014-2019


Figure 7: Mobile ASPU by type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2019


Figure 8: KPIs for Western Europe, 2014 and 2019


Figure 9: Mobile service revenue (excluding M2M) and revenue change by country, Western Europe, 2014 and 2019


Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share, Western Europe, 2009-2019


Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation by country, Western Europe, 20191


Figure 12: Smartphone and 4G penetration of mobile handset connections, Western Europe, 2014 and 2019


Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections and 4G penetration, Western Europe, 2014-2019


Figure 14: KPIs for Central and Eastern Europe, 2014 and 2019


Figure 15: Mobile service revenue by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2014 and 2019


Figure 16: Mobile connections by technology generation by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 20191


Figure 17: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2009-2019


Figure 18: Smartphone and 4G penetration of mobile handset connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014 and 2019


Figure 19: Mobile broadband connections and 4G penetration, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2019

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