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Tanzania Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 76 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Tanzania continues to be an attractive East African country for investment in its gas-richoffshore resources. A 'lower-for-longer' oil price scenario and sustained downward pressure on LNG pricespose risks to FID on Tanzania's LNG export project. Continued fiscal and regulatory uncertainties are alsoa threat and could push first exports beyond our 10-year forecast period. Without the project, it is unlikelythat a significant portion of the country's offshore assets will be developed in the near or medium term.Consumption growth looks strong for both refined fuels and gas, albeit from a comparatively low base. Gasconsumption will be met domestically, but a lack of refining capacity will see an increased reliance onimported fuels.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

-Ongoing uncertainty regarding the country's oil and gas regulations remains a key hurdle for investors,despite significant offshore gas resources. Based on the new model production sharing agreement,companies may expect higher taxation, an expanded role for the state and more stringent local contentmandates.

-Major gas discoveries offer significant upside to the country's gas production outlook. However, delays tofinal investment decision (FID) on the LNG export terminal may push back first production outside our10-year forecast period. Progress over the site for the LNG export facility in early 2016, however, is amodestly positive sign for project partners as they can now begin pre-FEED activities.

-Although domestic oil and gas consumption is relatively limited, consumption is set for strong growthacross our forecast period, supported by an expanding population and economic development. Oilconsumption continues to outstrip gas, although development of the country's substantial gas resourcescould tip the balance, as the power sector reorients its generating capacity.

Table Of Contents

Tanzania Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 13
Table: Tanzania Major Upstream Projects 13
Upstream Production - Gas 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Gas Production (Tanzania 2014-2019) 19
Table: Gas Production (Tanzania 2020-2025) 19
Refining 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Refined Fuels Consumption 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Tanzania 2014-2019) 24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Tanzania 2020-2025) 24
Gas Consumption 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Gas Consumption (Tanzania 2014-2019) 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Tanzania 2020-2025) 28
Trade - Oil 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Tanzania 2014-2019) 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Tanzania 2020-2025) 32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Tanzania 2014-2019) 36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Tanzania 2020-2025) 36
Industry Risk Reward Index 37
Africa - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 37
Table: BMI Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 37
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 40
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 40
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 43
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 43
Tanzania - Risk/Reward Index 45
Market Overview 46
Tanzania Energy Market Overview 46
Regulatory Structure 46
Fiscal Regime 47
Table: Tanzania MPSA Main Fiscal Terms 47
Licensing Regime 48
Table: Tanzania MPSA Main Contract Terms 48
Licensing Rounds 48
Table: Fourth Tanzania Licensing Round, 2013 48
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 49
Oil and Gas Pipelines 49
Table: Tanzania - Main Oil and Gas Pipelines 49
Oil Storage Facilities 49
Table: Tanzania Main Oil Storage Facilities 49
Oil Trade Facilities 50
Table: Tanzania Main Oil Terminals 50
LNG Terminals 50
Table: Tanzania Main LNG Terminals 50
Competitive Landscape 51
Company Profile 53
Statoil 53
Table: Discoveries In Block 2 And Gas-In-Place 54
ExxonMobil 55
Shell 57
Table: Shell (BG Group) Assets in Tanzania 59
Regional Overview 60
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 60
Table: Africa Oil and Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 68
Glossary 69
Table: Glossary Of Terms 69
Methodology 71
Industry Forecast Methodology 71
Source 73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 73
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 75
Table: Weighting 76

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