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Executive Summary


The report titled “Indonesia Thermal Power Market Outlook to 2018 - Led by Increasing Electricity Coverage and Private Producers” provides a comprehensive analysis of various aspects such as market size, segmentation and future projections of the thermal power market in Indonesia. This report also offers prevalent trends and developments in the industry, government regulations, SWOT analysis, STEEP analysis, Porter’s five force analysis and challenges in the thermal power industry in Indonesia. The report also covers the competitive landscape of the industry, complemented with the market share of private and public sector companies. Report also includes information on the major macroeconomic indicators affecting the market. Moreover, the report also offers information regarding the new technologies that are coming up in the market and the cost analysis for different types of technologies to produce power.

Thermal power remains the major contributor to the global power production and is the most extensively used form of power production in Indonesia as well. The thermal power generation method uses steam to run turbines and generate electricity. In the thermal power segment, coal remains the major contributor to power production. Indonesia is yet to achieve an electrification ratio of 100% and thus has a vast untapped market for thermal power. A rise in the production capacity of thermal power will be seen over the coming years to satisfy the rising demand and to enable wider access to the national electricity grid.

The Fast Track Electricity Program initiated by the government to ensure steady electricity supply has certainly helped to boost the electricity market, particularly the thermal power market. The major power plants coming up in the two phases of the FTP are thermal based. FTP phase-I has mostly coal fired power plants and FTP phase-II has a huge portion dedicated to geothermal power production.

Over the years, several laws such as Law No. 30/2009 and Geothermal Energy Law have been introduced in the country to support the rising demand of power by the growing economy and its units. These laws have helped boost the market and are expected to play an important role in the coming years with respect to increasing power supply. The production capacity of the market in the period of 2008-2013 grew at a CAGR of ~% to reach ~ MW in 2013. The production volume on the other hand grew by ~% in 2013 and reached a total output of ~ GWh. The consumption volume of Indonesia’s thermal power was equivalent to ~ thousand BOE in 2013, up from ~ thousand BOE in 2012.

Majority of the market is controlled by PLN with a market share of ~% in production in 2013. Coal is expected to remain the most used source of energy to produce power by producing ~ GWh of power in 2013. It was the highest contributor during the past few years as well. Households have remained the highest consumers of thermal power over the period of 2008-2013 with their consumption level at ~ thousand BOE in the year 2013. The consumption value of thermal power market in Indonesia is expected to augment at a CAGR of about ~% over the period of 2013-2018 reaching revenue worth USD ~ million in 2018. PT PLN is expected to maintain dominance in the market backed by the government and coal is expected to maintain its status as the highest contributor to the production total in the coming years.

Key Topics Covered
in the report

- The market size of Indonesia Thermal Power Market in terms of Production Capacity
- The market size of Indonesia Thermal Power Market in terms of Production Volume and Value
- The market size of Indonesia Thermal Power Market in terms of Consumption Volume and Value
- Market segmentation of Indonesia’s Thermal Power Market on the basis of Types of Sectors of Consumption
- Market segmentation of Indonesia’s Thermal Power Market on the basis of Types of Fuel Source
- Market segmentation of Indonesia’s Thermal Power Market on the basis of Types of Producer – Government and Private
- Trends and Developments in Indonesia’s Thermal Power Market
- SWOT analysis of Indonesia’s Thermal Power Industry
- Porter’s 5 Force Analysis of Indonesia’s Thermal Power Industry.
- Government Policies and Regulations in Thermal Power Market of Indonesia.
- Cost Analysis for Power Production from Different Sources.
- Competitive Landscape of IPPs in Thermal Power Industry in Indonesia
- Indonesia’s Thermal Power Market Future Outlook and Projections

Table Of Contents

Indonesia Thermal Power Market Outlook to 2018 - Led by Increasing Electricity Coverage and Private Producers
TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Indonesia's Thermal Power Market Introduction
Scenario of the Global Power Market
2. Supply Chain Analysis of Thermal Power in Indonesia
Stakeholders in the Industry
Supply Chain of Power in Indonesia: Before and After Law No. 30/2009
3. List of Major Thermal Power Stations in Indonesia
4. List of Upcoming Thermal Power Projects in Indonesia
5. Cost Analysis for Power Production from Different Sources
Assumptions
6. Indonesia's Thermal Power Market Size, 2008-2013
6.1. By Production Capacity, 2008-2013
6.2. By Production Volume, 2008-2013
6.3. By Production Value, 2008-2013
6.4. By Consumption Volume, 2008-2013
6.5. By Consumption Value 2008-2013
7. Indonesia's Thermal Power Market Segmentation
7.1. By Types of Sectors, 2008-2013
7.2. By Types of Fuels, 2008-2013
7.3. By Government and Private Sector
7.3.1. By Production Volume, 2008-2013
7.3.2. By Production Value, 2008-2013
8. Trends and Developments in Indonesia's Thermal Power Market
9. SWOT analysis of Indonesia's Thermal Power Industry
10. STEEP Analysis of Indonesia's Thermal Power Industry
11. Porter's 5 Force Analysis of Indonesia's Thermal Power Industry
12. Government Policies and Regulations in Thermal Power Market of Indonesia
13. Snapshot of Auxiliary Industries for Thermal Power Market in Indonesia
14. Recent Industrial Activities in Thermal Power Market in Indonesia
15. Historical and Current Challenges in the Indonesia Thermal Power Market
16. Market Share of Major Players in Thermal Power Industry in Indonesia, 2008-2013
17. Snapshot of Major Companies in Thermal Power Market in Indonesia
17.1. Distinction between PLN and IPPs
17.2. PT PLN (Perusahaan Listrik Negara)
17.2.1. Overview
17.2.2. Dominance in Power Industry
17.2.3. Key Financials
17.3. Competitive Landscape of IPPs in Thermal Power Industry in Indonesia
18. Indonesia Thermal Power Market Future Outlook and Projections by Consumption Value, 2014-2018
18.1. Impact of High Growth Targets
18.2. Impact of Subsidies
18.3. Impact of Fast Track Electricity Programmes
18.4. Geothermal Energy Law
18.5. Promotion of PPP Projects in Power Generation Market
18.6. Advent of Clean Coal Technology
19. Macroeconomic Factors of Indonesia's Thermal Power Industry
19.1. Number of Households in Indonesia, 2008-2018
19.2. GDP of Indonesia, 2008-2018
19.3. Electrification Ratio in Indonesia, 2008-2018
19.4. Energy Intensity in Indonesia, 2008-2018
19.5. Infrastructural and Capital Spending in Indonesia, 2008-2018
20. Appendix
20.1. Market Definitions
20.2. Abbreviations
20.3. Research Methodology
Data Collection Methods
Approach
Variables (Dependent and Independent)
Multi Factor Based Sensitivity Model
Final Conclusion
20.4. Disclaimer

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Global Power Consumption in Thousand TWh, 2008-2013
Figure 2: Stakeholders in Thermal Power Market in Indonesia
Figure 3: Supply Chain in Power Industry in Indonesia before Law No. 30/2009
Figure 4: Supply Chain in Power Industry in Indonesia post Law No. 30/2009
Figure 5: Indonesia's Thermal Power Market Size by Production Capacity in MW, 2008-2013
Figure 6: Indonesia's Thermal Power Market Size by Production Volume in Thousand BOE, 2008-2013
Figure 7: Indonesia's Thermal Power Market Size by Production Value in USD Million, 2008-2013
Figure 8: Indonesia's Thermal Power Market Size by Consumption Volume of Thermal Power in Thousand BOE, 2008-2013
Figure 9: Indonesia's Thermal Power Market Size by Consumption Value of Thermal Power in USD Million, 2008-2013
Figure 10: Indonesia's Thermal Power Market Segmentation by Types of Sectors (Household, Industrial, Commercial and Transportation) on the Basis of Consumption Volume in Percentage (%), 2008-2013
Figure 11: Indonesia Thermal Power Market Segmentation by Type of Sectors (Household, Industrial, Commercial and Transportation) on the Basis of Consumption Volume in Thousand BOE, 2008-2013
Figure 12: Indonesia Thermal Power Market Segmentation by IPPs and PLN on the Basis of Contribution to Production Volume in Percentage (%), 2008-2013
Figure 13: Indonesia Thermal Power Market Segmentation by IPPs and PLN on the Basis of Production Value of in USD Million, 2008-2013
Figure 14: Price of Crude Oil in Indonesia in USD per Barrel, 2008-2013
Figure 15: Imports of Generators by Indonesia in USD Million and Contribution in Percentage (%) to Total Global Imports, 2008-2012
Figure 16: Imports of Steam Boilers in Indonesia in USD Million and Contribution in Percentage (%) to Total Global Imports, 2008-2012
Figure 17: Imports of Steam Turbines in Indonesia in USD Million and Contribution in Percentage (%) to Total Global Imports, 2008-2012
Figure 18: Distribution of Thermal Power Production Value in Indonesia between IPPs and PLN in USD Million, 2008-2013
Figure 19: Distribution of Thermal Power Production Value in Indonesia between IPPs and PLN in Percentage (%), 2008-2013
Figure 20: Power Production by PLN by Type of Sources in Thousand BOE, 2013
Figure 21: Income/Loss of PLN in IDR Billion, 2008-2013
Figure 22: Indonesia Thermal Power Future Projections on the Basis of Consumption Value in USD Million, 2014-2018
Figure 23: Number of Households in Indonesia, in Thousand, 2008-2018
Figure 24: GDP of Indonesia in USD Billion at Current Prices, 2008-2018
Figure 25: Electrification Ratio in Indonesia, 2008-2018
Figure 26: Energy Intensity in Indonesia in BTU/Year 2005 USD, 2008-2018
Figure 27: Gross Fixed Capital Investment in Indonesia in USD Billion, 2008-2018

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Sources of Global Power Generation in Percentage (%), 2012
Table 2: List of Major Thermal Power Plants in Indonesia
Table 3: List of Major Upcoming Thermal Power Plants in Indonesia
Table 4: Levelised Cost, Capacity Factor, Fixed and Variable OandM, Transmission Investment of Electricity Production from Different Power Plants in USD per MWh
Table 5: Indonesia's Thermal Power Market Segmentation by Types of Sources on the Basis of Contribution to Thermal Power Production Volume in Percentage (%), 2008-2013
Table 6: Indonesia's Thermal Power Market Segmentation by Types of Sources on the Basis of Thermal Power Production Volume in Indonesia in Thousand BOE, 2008-2013
Table 7: Indonesia Thermal Power Market Segmentation by IPPs and PLN on the Basis of Contribution to Production Volume in Thousand BOE, 2008-2013
Table 8: Porter's Five Force Analysis for Indonesia's Thermal Power Industry
Table 9: Negative List for Power Sector
Table 10: Major Industrial Activities Affecting Thermal Power Industry
Table 11: Competitive Landscape of IPPS in Thermal Power Industry in Indonesia
Table 12: Cost Comparison of Different Technologies of Power Projects Using Coal
Table 13: Correlation Matrix of Indonesian Thermal Power Market
Table 14: Regression Coefficients Output for Indonesia Thermal Power Consumption Value

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