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  5. > Thailand Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

Thailand Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 74 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Thailand will maintain its status as a key Asian agricultural provider in the coming years, asthe sector boasts strong export opportunities and government support, as well as an efficientfood producing industry. The sugar and livestock sectors hold promising growth stories. However, thegovernment's interference in the market, especially in the rice sector, will hinder the competitiveness ofThai production compared to its Asian rivals. Rice production will face downward pressure as thegovernment incentivises farmers to switch away from rice towards other crops, mainly sugarcane, in a bidto curb oversupply of rice. That said, Thailand will likely regain its status as the world's largest riceexporter in the coming years as production picks up after the drought recorded in 2015-2016.

Key Forecasts

- Liquid milk consumption growth to 2020: 17.2% to 1.4mn tonnes. Demand for dairy products will berobust through our forecast period, driven by rising incomes and continued interest in functional productsand dairy-based confectionery, such as ice cream.

- Sugar production growth to 2020: 8.9% to 11.8mn tonnes. Sugar output will be driven mainly bygovernment incentives, strong sugar cane yield improvements and improved sugar recovery from cane, aswell as strong export opportunities.

- Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 28.3% to 2.1mn tonnes. The government is aiming to reducethe country's rice oversupply by incentivising farmers to turn to alternative crops. This will limitplantings growth in the coming years.

- 2016 BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD37.4bn (down 0.2% from 2015, growth to average4.9% annually between 2016 and 2020).

- Real GDP growth in 2016: 3.0% (up from 2.8% in 2015, forecast to average 3.7% annually between2016 and 2020).

- Consumer price index in 2016: 0.3% average (up from -0.9% in 2015; forecast to average 2.1%between 2016 and 2020).

- Central bank policy rate in 2016: 1.50% eop (same than in 2015; forecast to average 1.80% between2016 and 2020).

Table Of Contents

Thailand Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Thailand - Corn Production and Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Thailand 2013-2020) 13
Rice Outlook 14
Latest Updates 14
Table: Thailand - Rice Production and Consumption Outlook 15
Table: Risks To Outlook 15
Structural Trends 16
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Thailand 2013-2020) 18
Sugar Outlook 19
Latest Updates 19
Table: Thailand - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 20
Table: Risks To Outlook 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Select Thai Sugar Companies (Current And Expected Production Capacity) 22
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Thailand 2013-2020) 25
Dairy Outlook 26
Latest Updates 26
Table: Thailand - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 26
Table: Risks To Outlook 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Dairy Production And Consumption (Thailand 2013-2020) 30
Livestock Outlook 31
Latest Updates 31
Table: Thailand - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 32
Table: Risks To Outlook 32
Structural Trends 33
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (Thailand 2013-2020) 36
Commodity Price Forecasts 38
BMI Price Forecast 38
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 38
Upstream Analysis 40
Asia Machinery Outlook 40
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 44
Asia GM Outlook 47
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 50
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 52
Downstream Analysis 57
Food 57
Latest Updates 57
Structural Trends 58
Table: Food Sales (Thailand 2013-2020) 59
Regional Overview 62
Competitive Landscape 67
Table: Major Thai Agribusiness Companies 67
Demographic Forecast 68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Thailand 1990-2025) 69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Thailand 1990-2025) 69
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Thailand 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group (Thailand 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Thailand 1990-2025) 71
Methodology 73
Industry Forecast Methodology 73
Sector-Specific Methodology 74

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