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  5. > Uganda Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Uganda Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 83 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We forecast first oil in Uganda in 2020 with risks increasingly to the downside given limitedprogress on the key infrastructure projects required for first oil. A series of limitations, most notably theinfrastructure projects required for oil exports, will see upstream developments proceed slowly, andpreclude oil production until 2020 at the earliest. This is far behind the government's official oil target of2018.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

-With reserves of 2.5bn bbl of crude, Uganda has Sub-Saharan Africa's fourth largest crude reserves,behind Nigeria, Angola and South Sudan. There is limited short-term upside risk to reserves: currentexploration and appraisal campaigns are reaching an end and new exploration will wait until moreconcrete progress is made towards developing existing discoveries. The low oil prices will do little tomotivate short-term exploration in this market, where oil production is still years away. Limited interestin the ongoing licensing round will delay short-to-medium term new exploration.

-In March 2016, the Ministry said it received seven bids for six oil exploration blocks as part of itsongoing licensing round. Not one among Tullow Oil, Total and CNOOC bid for additional blocks. Theabsence of major international oil companies (IOCs) in the bidding highlights the limited attractiveness ofthe Ugandan market after years of regulatory and political barriers which have delayed oil developmentssince 2006.

Table Of Contents

Uganda Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2020) 7
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 16
Table: Upstream Project Database 16
Upstream Production - Oil 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Applications Made For Production Licences In Uganda 19
Oil Production Forecast And Downside Risks 25
Table: Oil Production (Uganda 2014-2019) 26
Table: Oil Production (Uganda 2020-2025) 26
Upstream Production - Gas 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Gas Production (Uganda 2014-2019) 28
Table: Gas Production (Uganda 2020-2025) 28
Refining 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uganda 2014-2019) 32
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Uganda 2020-2025) 33
Refined Fuels Consumption 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Uganda 2014-2019) 36
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Uganda 2020-2025) 36
Gas Consumption 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Gas Consumption (Uganda 2014-2019) 38
Table: Gas Consumption (Uganda 2020-2025) 38
Trade - Oil 39
Crude Oil Trade 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uganda 2014-2019) 43
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Uganda 2020-2025) 43
Refined Fuels Trade 44
Latest Updates 44
Structural Trends 44
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uganda 2014-2019) 46
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Uganda 2020-2025) 46
Industry Risk Reward Index 47
Africa - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 47
Table: BMI Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 47
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 50
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 50
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 53
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 53
Uganda Risk/Reward Index 55
Market Overview 57
Uganda Energy Market Overview 57
Regulatory Structure 57
Political Regime 59
Fiscal Regime 60
Table: Uganda Fiscal Regime 60
Licensing Regime 60
Table: Uganda Licensing Regime 60
Licensing Rounds 61
Table: Current Licences 61
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 62
Oil Refineries 62
Table: Uganda Refinery 62
Oil Storage Facilities 62
Table: Uganda Main Oil Storage Facilities 62
Oil Pipeline 63
Table: Uganda Oil Pipelines 63
Company Profile 64
Tullow Oil 64
Company Overview 64
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Uganda 65
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 66
Regional Overview 67
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 67
Table: Africa Oil and Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 75
Glossary 76
Table: Glossary Of Terms 76
Methodology 78
Industry Forecast Methodology 78
Source 80
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 80
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 82
Table: Weighting 83

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