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Myanmar Power Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 57 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The Myanmar power sector is set to grow impressively over the coming decade and will be oneof the fastest growing markets in the region. We also expect the country's energy mix to change over thedecade and this change will create numerous opportunities.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- We forecast electricity generation in Myanmar to grow by 12.1% in 2016, a significant pick-up fromwhat we estimate to have been a 6.9% expansion in 2015. We believe growth in 2016 will continue to beprimarily driven by hydropower and gas-fired generation, similar to 2015. Myanmar's power sector willbe one of the fastest growing in Asia over the coming decade. We have retained our long-term bullishforecast on electricity generation, with growth set to average 8.0% per annum between 2016-2025. Thisis significantly higher than the regional average of about 5.2%.

- In June 2015, Japanese firm Marubeni Corporation announced it had entered into a memorandum ofunderstanding (MoU) with Myanmar's electric power ministry to conduct a feasibility study for a400MW gas-fired power generation facility in Yangon Region, Myanmar. Marubeni will carry out thestudy in a consortium with Thai firm Global Power Synergy and Eden Group. The project is part ofMyanmar's efforts to boost power generation capacity to meet rapidly growing demand. The facility isbeing developed by a team of Japanese and Myanmar-based firms, including Marubeni. The plant isestimated to cost about JPY40bn (USD325mn), reports NIKKEI Asian Review. Construction is expectedto begin in 2016 and the facility is scheduled to be commissioned in 2019.

- Black & Veatch announced in October 2015 it had secured a contract from Green Earth Power(Thailand) for design and consultancy services on a solar project in Myanmar. Construction will start inQ116. The facility, which will be Southeast Asia's largest solar power plant, will produce up to 220MWpof power and is in Minbu in the Magway region. 'The plant supports the Myanmar government's aim toincrease electricity production from the present 2,500MW to 30,000MW by 2030,' said PitakWangvarangkoon, General Manager of Myanmar business (the Construction Index).

Table Of Contents

Myanmar Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Myanmar 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Myanmar Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Myanmar 2015-2019) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Myanmar 2020-2025) 11
Myanmar Power Forecast Scenario 12
Table: Fact Box: Cancelled Hydropower Projects in Myanmar 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Myanmar 2014-2019) 19
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Myanmar 2019-2025) 20
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Myanmar 2014-2019) 21
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Myanmar 2019-2025) 21
Electricity Consumption 22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Myanmar 2014-2019) 22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Myanmar 2019-2025) 22
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 24
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Myanmar 2014-2019) 24
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Myanmar 2019-2025) 24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Myanmar 2014-2019) 24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Myanmar 2019-2025) 24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 25
Asia Power RRI: China's Score Slipping, India Pushing Ahead 25
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 32
Myanmar Power Risk/Reward Index 33
Rewards 33
Risks 33
Market Overview 35
Key Policies And Market Structure 35
Regulation And Competition 35
Sustainable Energy Policies 36
Pricing 37
Myanmar Power Projects Database 38
Table: Myanmar - 10 Largest Power Projects By Capacity 39
Competitive Landscape 42
APR Energy 43
ACO Investment Group 43
Regional Overview 44
Asia - Asia Power: Shifting Fuel Dynamics, Coal Still King 44
Glossary 51
Table: Glossary Of Terms 51
Methodology 52
Methodology And Sources 52
Industry Forecast Methodology 52
Sources 55
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 55
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 57

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