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Denmark Country Risk Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 25 pages

Core Views Real GDP growth in Denmark will continue to be supported by a steady improvement in external demand, mainly from the eurozone. However, the large debt burden of the private sector will restrain growth over a multi-year horizon. While Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen’s hardline nationalist stance towards Europe’s migration crisis has bolstered public support for the conservative right on Denmark’s political scene, we retain the view that the government will remain unstable. The one-party minority government will have a difficult time passing legislation, making it likely that the government will be ousted before its term ends in 2019. Major Forecast Changes With consumer confidence and exports weakening, we have revised down our 2016 real GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.2%.

Table Of Contents

Denmark Country Risk Report Q3 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Weak Growth On All Fronts In 2016-20178
Danish growth will disappoint in 2016 and 2017, as consumers retrench and private investment remains subdued Additionally, political
risk, particularly the potential for a Danish referendum on EU membership, will dampen both household and business sentiment
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS10
Monetary Policy 11
Steady Policy To 2018 As Krone Speculation Eases11
With speculative foreign inflows ebbing, Danish policymakers will be able to avoid cutting rates further, even as the European Central
Bank considers diving even more deeply into negative rate policy The Danish central bank will maintain deposit rates in deeply negative
territory until 2018, with only slow normalisation thereafter
Monetary Policy Framework 12
Chapter 2: Political Outlook 15
SWOT Analysis 15
BMI Political Risk Index 15
Domestic Politics 16
Brexit Implications: Increased Risk Of 'Danexit'16
The United Kingdom's referendum on membership in the European Union in June will reignite debate over Denmark's relationship with
the bloc We have downgraded our short-term political risk score for Denmark to account for a potential disruption in policy continuity in
the next 12 months, should the 'Brexit' vote lead to schisms in the Folketing over Denmark's ties to its European partners
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW16
Long-Term Political Outlook 18
Welfare Reform, Migration Are Key Long-Term Issues18
Denmark will experience broad political stability over the coming decade, but changes to the welfare state will see divisions emerge
between left and right, and old and young Meanwhile, opposition to immigration will increase The government will continue to face
demands from Greenland for full independence, although this scenario will not play out in our 10-year forecast period to 2025
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook 21
Global Macro Outlook 21
Tentative Stability, But New Risks Emerging21
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS21
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %22
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %23
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS25

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