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Gabon & Congo Brazzaville Country Risk Report 2015

  • May 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 45 pages

Core Views
The debate over a possible change to the national constitution, which would allow President Denis Sassou-Nguesso to run for a third term, has polarised Congo-Brazzaville at the start of 2015 and will heighten political tensions in the run up to next year’s elections. The economic outlook for Congo-Brazzaville remains broadly positive, although the slump in oil and iron ore prices will have an impact on short-term macroeconomic fundamentals.

Core Views
Traditionally one of Africa’s most politically stable countries, Gabon is experiencing unusual turbulence and social unrest amid a deteriorating economic outlook for the oil-rich nation. The slump in oil prices will have a significant impact on Gabon’s short-term economic outlook, with downside risks for the country’s fiscal health and external accounts. This will have stark implications for oil-rich Gabon’s short-term economic stability and the government’s flagship plan for long-term economic transformation.

Table Of Contents

Gabon and Congo Brazzaville Country Risk Report 2015
Executive Summary - Congo-Brazzaville. 11
Core Views.11
Long Term Views...11
Chapter 1.1: Political Outlook - Congo-Brazzaville. 13
SWOT Analysis. 13
Domestic Politics. 14
Constitutional Reform Proposal Will Raise Tensions14
Despite rising opposition to the extension of President Denis Sassou-Nguesso's rule over the Republic of Congo, even among the
ruling coalition, we expect he will press ahead with plans to amend the constitution prior to the July 2016 elections. Our core view is that
political change is most likely to come from within the PCT rather than from a splintered opposition.
Chapter 1.2: Economic Outlook - Congo-Brazzaville.. 17
SWOT Analysis. 17
Economic Activity ... 18
Oil Production Boom Will Shelter Economy From The Worst..18
Although falling oil prices will weigh on the Republic of Congo's current account balance in particular, we expect a surge in production
will offset the worst of this. Growth will remain among the strongest in Sub-Saharan Africa.
ta ble: Econo mic Acti vit y...18
Chapter 1.3: 10-Year Forecast - Congo-Brazzaville 21
The Congo Economy To 2024. 21
Growth Boom, Little Economic Development21
An upswing in oil production and the beginning of iron ore exports will boost headline GDP growth in the Republic of the Congo between
2015 and 2018, but economic expansion will subsequently falter. Growth will be limited to a few sectors and progress on addressing
widespread poverty will be slow.
ta ble: Long -Ter m Macroecono mic Forecasts .21
Chapter 1.4: Operational Risk - Congo-Brazzaville. 25
SWOT Analysis. 25
Executive Summary - Gabon 27
Core Views.27
Chapter 2.1: Political Outlook - Gabon. 29
SWOT Analysis. 29
Domestic Politics 30
Bongo Will Win Despite Rising Dissatisfaction..30
President Ali Bongo will win the 2016 Gabonese elections, but there will be increasing political tension in the run-up to the polls, which
will dampen investor interest towards the country.
Chapter 2.2: Economic Outlook - Gabon.. 33
SWOT Analysis. 33
Economic Activity ... 34
Positive Growth Masks Twin Deficit Danger..34
The fall in the global price of oil will hit Gabon's economy hard, especially given stagnating production in the country. Although real GDP
growth in Gabon will remain positive, twin deficits and escalating levels of external debt will increasingly weigh on economic stability in
the coming years.
ta ble: Econo mic Acti vit y...34
Chapter 2.3: 10-Year Forecast - Gabon 37
The Gabon Economy To 2024. 37
Growth To Continue As Economy Diversifies37
Annual real GDP growth in Gabon will average 5.5% between 2015 and 2024 due to rising consumer spending and high levels of capital
expenditure. President Ali Bongo's efforts to reduce the economy's reliance on oil will be moderately successful.
ta ble: Long -Ter m Macroecono mic Forecasts .37
Chapter 2.4: Operational Risk - Gabon. 41
SWOT Analysis. 41
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook... 43
Global Outlook.. 43
EMs Still Slowing...43
Table: Global Assu mptions ..43
Table: Developed States , Rea l GDP Gro wtH, %44
Table: BM I VERSUS BL OOMB ERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %. 44
Table: Emerging Mar kets , Rea l GDP Gro wth , %...45

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