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Germany Country Risk Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 53 pages

Core Views German economic growth will remain solid over the coming years, as the economy rebalances away from exports and to domestic demand. A rise in domestic consumption will reduce Germany's large national savings ratio, which is one of the largest structural imbalances in the eurozone. Germany will run small budget deficits in the years ahead, but its overall credit risk position will remain very favourable compared to most large eurozone economies. Chancellor Angela Merkel will struggle to retain popular support in the coming months, but will still win the next federal election in 2017 if she decides to run.

Table Of Contents

Germany Country Risk Report Q3 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Economy Set To Weather External Challenges8
Germany's economy will remain in solid shape in 2016 and 2017, as the economy rebalances towards domestic demand
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS10
External Trade And Investment Outlook 10
Eurozone Needs Much Bigger Uptick In German Consumption10
Germany's current account surplus has peaked and will gradually shrink in the years ahead While an uptick in German consumption
bodes well for the health of the eurozone economy, Germany will continue exporting its huge pool of national savings (in the form of
goods) abroad at the expense of less developed eurozone peers for the foreseeable future
Outlook On External Position 13
TABLE: CAPITAL and FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE13
TABLE: TOP 5 IMPORT SOURCES AND GOODS IMPORTS (2014)13
TABLE: TOP 5 EXPORT DESTINATIONS AND GOODS EXPORTS (2014)14
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook 15
Limited Risks Posed By Small Budget Deficits15
Germany will run small budget deficits in 2016 and 2017, as a result of extra spending on security and migrant inflows Despite this,
broad-based political support for fiscal prudence means the country will still have the least sovereign risk of any major eurozone
economy for the foreseeable future
Structural Fiscal Position 17
TABLE: KEY FISCAL DATA17
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES, 201417
Monetary Policy 18
Rising Inflation No Cause For Alarm18
While inflation will pick up in Germany in H216, price growth will remain relatively subdued and stay below the ECB's 20% target over
the coming quarters
Regional Debt Outlook 20
Three Trends In European Private Sector Debt 20
Private sector debt has, on aggregate, risen as a share of GDP in Europe since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), but trends have been
idiosyncratic
TABLE: PRIVATE SECTOR DEBT, % OF GDP21
TABLE: PRIVATE SECTOR DEBT, % OF GDP22
TABLE: PRIVATE SECTOR DEBT, % OF GDP23
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 25
The German Economy To 2025 25
Accepting Slower Growth For Eurozone Stability25
German economic growth will slow over the coming decade as a result of population decline, eroding competiveness and slower
productivity growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS25
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 29
SWOT Analysis 29
BMI Political Risk Index 29
Domestic Politics 30
Merkel Will Cope With Rising Pressure30
German Chancellor Angela Merkel will face further pressure from the electorate over her handling of migrant crisis and the country's
relationship with Turkey Despite this, a healthy economic backdrop and the structure of the country's party system mean she will
remain Chancellor if she decides to run for another term in 2017
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW30
Long-Term Political Outlook 32
Long-Term Political Outlook-Difficult Decisions Ahead32
Although it is one of the most stable countries in the world, Germany must make some difficult political choices over the next 10 years
Some of these, such as how to deal with a rapidly ageing population, will be hard to address without threatening political stability, while
others, such as re-defining Germany's role in Europe, could also prove destabilising
Regional Politics 34
Migrant Crisis: Turkish Deal No Long-Term Solution34
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 37
SWOT Analysis 37
Operational Risk Index 37
Operational Risk 38
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LABOUR MARKET RISK38
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LOGISTICS RISK42
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - CRIME AND SECURITY RISK45
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK47
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 49
Global Macro Outlook 49
Tentative Stability, But New Risks Emerging49
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS49
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %50
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %51
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS53

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