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Kazakhstan and Central Asia Country Risk Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 67 pages

Core Views The Kazakh economy is past the worst, with a rebound in oil prices offering support for the tenge, mitigating inflationary pressures and allowing for monetary policy easing in the coming months. Kyrgyzstan’s economy will struggle to recover in the coming quarters despite the gradual rebound in commodity prices, which will materialise over this period. Regulatory and political uncertainty, subdued remittances from Russia and weak external demand will keep a lid on the country’s recovery. Economic conditions in Tajikistan will continue to deteriorate despite a gradual rebound in commodity prices in the coming quarters. While a credit line arrangement with the International Monetary Fund will help the country avoid a balance of payments crisis, this will come at the expense of huge costs to the economy. A recent government reshuffle and further steps by President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov to solidify his grip on power are a testimony to the inability and unwillingness of the establishment to address the burning economic and social problems in Turkmenistan.

We see the risks of social instability as rising however, the repressive security apparatus of the state will stave off a collapse of the regime. GDP growth in Uzbekistan will continue to slow down in 2016 as the commodity-dependent economy struggles to recover from the decline in commodity prices and Russia’s economic crisis. Nevertheless, with commodity prices soon to recover, the economy will be past the worst this year and poised for stronger growth in 2017.

Table Of Contents

Kazakhstan and Central Asia Country Risk Report Q3 2016
Executive Summary - Regional 13
Core Views 13
Key Risks13
Chapter 11: Economic Outlook - Kazakhstan 15
Economic Growth Outlook 15
Economy Past The Worst15
TABLE: GROWTH TO RECOVER GRADUALLY15
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 16
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS 16
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS16
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 17
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS17
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS17
Chapter 12: 10-Year Forecast - Kazakhstan 19
The Kazakh Economy To 2025 19
Developing Non-Oil Sectors Key To Sustaining Growth19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 19
Chapter 13: Political Outlook- Kazakhstan 21
Domestic Politics 21
Power Assets To Be Bellwether For Privatisation Programme21
TABLE: SAMRUK ENERGY'S PRIORITY LIST: PRIVATISATION OF DISTRIBUTION ASSETS TO SHAPE STRATEGY 21
Long-Term Political Outlook 23
Post-Nazarbayev Era: Managed Transition The Most Likely Scenario23
Chapter 14: Operational Risk - Kazakhstan 27
Operational Risk 27
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK SCORE27
Economic Openness 28
TABLE: TOP 5 IMPORT PRODUCTS and IMPORT PARTNERS, 2010-2014, USDMN 31
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS32
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES 33
Availability Of Labour 35
TABLE: EMERGING EUROPE - AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR RISK35
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR ('000), 2010-201236
TABLE: TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES FOR MIGRANT WORKERS37
Chapter 21: Economic Outlook - Kyrgyzstan 39
Economic Growth Outlook 39
Recovery To Take Place Slowly39
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 40
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS40
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS40
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS40
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS40
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS41
Chapter 22: Political Outlook - Kyrgyzstan 43
Domestic Politics 43
Constitutional Changes Will Not Herald A More Robust Democratic System43
Chapter 31: Economic Outlook - Tajikistan 45
Economic Growth Outlook 45
IMF Deal To Stave Off Crisis, But Economy To Suffer45
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 46
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS46
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS47
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS47
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS47
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS47
Chapter 32: Political Outlook - Tajikistan 49
Domestic Politics 49
Edging Towards A Socio-Economic Collapse49
Chapter 41: Economic Outlook - Turkmenistan 51
Economic Growth Outlook 51
Security Threats Will Hamper Power Export Strategy51
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 52
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS53
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS53
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 53
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS53
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS53
Chapter 42: Political Outlook - Turkmenistan 55
Domestic Politics 55
Rising Risk Of Public Discontent, But Limited Threat To Regime55
Chapter 51: Economic Outlook - Uzbekistan 57
Economic Growth Outlook 57
Economy Struggling To Recover57
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 58
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS58
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS58
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS58
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS 59
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS59
Chapter 52: Political Outlook - Uzbekistan 61
Domestic Politics 61
Cooperation With Russia To Persist, Despite Weakening Economic Ties61
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook 63
Global Macro Outlook 63
Tentative Stability,But New Risks Emerging63
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS63
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %64
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %65
TABLE: KAZAKHSTAN - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS67
TABLE: KYRGYZSTAN - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS67
TABLE: TAJIKISTAN - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS67
TABLE: TURKMENISTAN - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS67
TABLE: UZBEKISTAN - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS67

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