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Kosovo and Montenegro Country Risk Report Q3 2015

  • May 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 51 pages

Core Views
Although challenges in both the domestic and foreign policy arena will continue to test the unity of Kosovo's grand coalition, we expect the partnership to endure and remain in power for the duration of its term ending in 2018. W e remain sceptical that the new coalition government's plans to reorient the economy from a consumption-driven model towards an investment-focused one will bear fruit any time soon. We expect the fragile political stability outlook for the country to keep investors at
bay, hampering foreign direct investment inflows into Kosovo.

Core Views
M ontenegro will continue to make slow but steady progress towards EU membership despite significant challenges related to organised crime and corruption. There is a strong political will in the establishment and growing public consensus towards integration with the West. The outlook for the Montenegrin economy is bleak due to tepid
external demand, which will weigh on the tourism sector and agricultural exports. Meanwhile, tight credit markets will prevent a full recovery in domestic demand.

Table Of Contents

Kosovo and Montenegro Country Risk Report Q3 2015
Executive Summary - Kosovo. 7
Core Views ..7
Key Risks To Outlook 7
Chapter 1.1: Political Outlook - Kosovo. 9
SWOT Analysis.. 9
BMI Political Risk Index 9
Domestic Politics. 10
Despite Challenges, Coalition Partnership To Endure..10
Although challenges in both the domestic and foreign policy arena will continue to test the unity of Kosovo's grand coalition, we expect
the partnership to endure and remain in power for the duration of its term ending in 2018.
Long-Term Political Outlook .. 11
Political Future Far From Certain Despite Serb Agreement..11
Kosovo's long-term political future is far from assured, with a host of structural economic inefficiencies, weak institutions and societal
schisms weighing on the country's outlook through to 2024.
Tab le: Kosovo - Politica l Over vie w .13
Chapter 1.2: Economic Outlook - Kosovo 15
SWOT Analysis.15
BMI Economic Risk Index15
Economic Activity 16
Political Instability To Hamper Investment Plans..16
We remain sceptical that plans by Kosovo's new coalition government to reorient the economy from a consumption-driven model
towards an investment-focused one will bear fruit any time soon.
Tab le: Kosovo - GDP By Expe nditure 16
Chapter 1.3: 10-Year Forecast - Kosovo.. 19
The Kosovan Economy To 2024. 19
Economy To Remain Least Developed In Region..19
Kosovo's economy will remain the least developed in the Western Balkan region through to 2024 as underdeveloped road and energy
infrastructure act as a clear check on growth potential over the long term.
Tab le: Kosovo - Long-Ter m Macr oec onomic Forecasts ..19
Executive Summary - Montenegro 21
Core Views.21
Key Risks To Outlook...21
Chapter 2.1: Political Outlook - Montenegro 23
SWOT Analysis 23
BMI Political Risk Index...23
Domestic Politics. 24
Path To EU Membership Firmly In Place.24
Montenegro will continue to make slow but steady progress towards EU membership despite significant challenges relating to fighting
organised crime and corruption.
Long-Term Political Outlook .. 25
Converging Towards The EU...25
Over our forecast period to 2024, we expect Montenegro to experience a sanguine domestic policy environment while gradually
converging with Western European norms and gaining eventual entry into the EU.
Chapter 2.2: Economic Outlook - Montenegro 29
SWOT Analysis.29
BMI Economic Risk Index... 29
Economic Activity 30
Macro Outlook Remains Bleak.30
The outlook for the Montenegrin economy is bleak due to tepid external demand, which will weigh on the tourism sector and agricultural
exports. Meanwhile, tight credit markets will prevent a full recovery in domestic demand.
Tab le: Monte negr o - GDP By Expe nditure ..30
Chapter 2.3: 10-Year Forecast - Montenegro... 33
The Montenegrin Economy To 2024... 33
Reforms Crucial For Convergence..33
We hold a relatively bullish outlook on Montenegro's long-term convergence prospects and forecast real GDP to expand by an average
of 3.0% between 2014 and 2024.
Tab le: Monte negr o - Long-Ter m Macr oec onomic Forecasts ...33
Chapter 2.4: Operational Risk - Montenegro... 35
SWOT Analysis.35
BMI Operational Risk Index 35
Operational Risk... 36
Tab le: Sout h East Eur ope - Lab our Market Risk .36
Tab le: Sout h East Eur ope - Logistics Risk 40
Tab le: Sout h East Eur ope - Cri me And Securit y Risk 43
Tab le: Sout h East Eur ope - Trade And Invest ment Risk ...45
Tab le: Mai n Import Products , 2012.47
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook... 49
Global Outlook.. 49
EMs Still Slowing...49
Tab le: Globa l Assu mpti ons..49
Tab le: Developed States , Rea l GDP GrowtH , %50
Tab le: BMI VERSUS BLOOM BERG CON SENSUS REAL GDP GROW TH FORECASTS, %. 50
Tab le: Emergi ng Markets , Rea l GDP Growth, %...51

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