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Norway Country Risk Report Q3 2015

  • May 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 29 pages

Core Views
A sharp slowdown in hydrocarbons sector investment amid a collapse in global oil prices will weigh on Norwegian GDP growth in 2015 and beyond. The policy response will be crucial. The government has the option of expanding fiscal policy by dipping into the country's USD890bn sovereign wealth fund, and the central bank may ease policy more
aggressively. The residential housing market has been a major contributor to overall real GDP growth for most of the past decade, but is set to cool over the next few years.
W e envisage broad political continuity to the next election in 2017, with the Conservative-Progress minority coalition government achieving modest progress on its reform agenda.

Table Of Contents

Norway Country Risk Report Q3 2015
Executive Summary.. 5
Core Views...5
Key Risks To Outlook.5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook. 7
SWOT Analysis... 7
BMI Political Risk Index. 7
Domestic Politics .. 8
Economy Poses Headwinds To Coalition.8
Since coming to power in 2013, Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg's Conservative Party has managed to pass key policies with
the support of its coalition partner the Progress Party and the cooperation of the smaller Liberal and Christian Democrat parties. But the
government will face significant headwinds for the remainder of the parliamentary term to 2017, with an economic slowdown, municipal
elections looming in September, and a majority in parliament opposed to the government's policy on Syrian refugees.
TABLE: Political Over vie w...8
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 11
SWOT Analysis. 11
BMI Economic Risk Index 11
Economic Activity 12
Painful Post-Oil Boom Adjustment Ahead..12
The next few years will mark a painful transition away from Norway's dependence on the oil sector, with real GDP growth unlikely
to return above 2.0% for several years as the economy adjusts. The government policy response will be crucial to the medium-term
direction, but there are no easy fixes for the deep structural problems in the economy.
TABLE: GDP By Expenditure 12
Monetary Policy ... 15
Norges Bank May Take An Unconventional Route15
Norway's central bank will cut its key policy rate by a further 25 basis points (bps) in 2015 to 1.00%, and remain on hold until late 2017,
due to rising concern over a structural slowdown in growth in the wake of the global oil price collapse. Policymakers are likely to lean
more heavily on unconventional measures as they attempt to keep the exchange rate weak while also preventing household leverage
from rising out of control.
TABLE: Monetar y Polic y.15
TABLE: Long -Term Macroeconomic Forecasts .16
Chapter 3: Operational Risk... 19
SWOT Analysis. 19
Operational Risk Index 19
Chapter 4: Key Sectors... 21
Telecommunications 21
TABLE: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data and Forecasts 21
TABLE: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data and Forecasts 23
Other Key Sectors 25
TABLE: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators ..25
TABLE: Pharma Sector Key Indicators .25
TABLE: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators 26
TABLE: Autos Sector Key Indicators 26
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook... 27
Global Outlook.. 27
Emerging Markets Still Slowing...27
Table : Global Assumptions ..27
Table : Developed States , Real GDP Gro wtH, %28
Table : Emerging Markets , Real GDP Gro wth , %...29

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