1. Market Research
  2. > Energy & Environment
  3. > Energy
  4. > Oil and Gas Energy Market Trends
  5. > Poland Country Risk Report Q3 2016

Poland Country Risk Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 49 pages

Core Views Poland's robust real GDP growth will continue throughout 2016 and 2017, driven mainly by household consumption and fixed investment. The sharp drop in oil prices has led to a positive adjustment in Poland's external accounts, although growing domestic demand will cause the current account deficit to widen in 2016. The right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) government will continue to slightly widen the fiscal deficit, but we expect Poland not to breach the 3.0% of GDP Maastricht criteria threshold.

Table Of Contents

Poland Country Risk Report Q3 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Economy Powering Through Political Uncertainty8
Household consumption and fixed investment will continue be the joint engines for economic growth in the years ahead Mounting
political uncertainty due to right-wing Law and Justice party policies will not significantly undermine Poland's strong macroeconomic
fundamentals
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook 11
Solid Fiscal Profile Despite Populist Government11
Poland's budget deficit will not exceed 30% of GDP in the years ahead, under pinned by a strong macroeconomic and government
revenue backdrop Financial market instabilities and relatively high borrowing costs will mainly be due to investor uncertainty over the
new populist government's policies
Structural Fiscal Position 12
TABLE: MAIN EXPENDITURE and REVENUE CATEGORIES12
External Trade And Investment Outlook 13
C/A Deficit Will Widen Amid Strong Economy13
Import growth will accelerate on the back of solid consumer demand and wage growth in Poland in 2016 and 2017 This will partly offset
low oil prices and strong export growth, and lead to a widening of the current account deficit
Outlook On External Position 15
TABLE: CAPITAL and FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS 16
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS 16
Monetary Policy 17
Inflation To Make Comeback By End-201617
A strong macroeconomic backdrop and tight labour market will result in demand-pull inflationary pressures mounting in 2016 In
combination with rising oil and grain prices, we expect headline inflation to turn positive in 2016 and accelerate thereafter
Monetary Policy Framework 18
Currency Forecast 19
PLN: Strong Economy Supporting Zloty19
Over the short term, we forecast the PLN/EUR exchange rate to remain broadly stable Beyond 2016, we expect the zloty to appreciate
against the euro, mainly due to a rising interest rate differential between Poland and the eurozone, underpinned by strong economic
growth in the former
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST19
Regional Economic Outlook 20
Euro Fatigue To Prevail In CEE20
The probability of countries in Central and Eastern Europe joining the eurozone currency union will remain distant in the years ahead
Polish and Czech economic strength and relative resilience to global downturns imply that benefits from euro accession would be
minimal For Hungary and Romania, the euro would lead to more economic and financial stability, but converging with all of the
admission criteria look unlikely for the years to come
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 23
The Polish Economy To 2025 23
Long-Term Future Looks Bright23
We forecast Polish real GDP growth to average 33% between 2016 and 2025, down from 40% between 2001 and 2011 Poland
is well placed to avoid the pitfalls of the middle income trap and continue benefitting from large catch-up growth with the rich EU
economies
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 23
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 25
SWOT Analysis 25
BMI Political Risk Index 25
Domestic Politics 26
Constitutional Crisis: Rift With EU To Widen26
The ruling Law and Justice party will tighten its grip on Poland's institutions, after disabling the constitutional court and passing farreaching
security laws We expect a prolonged clash with the European Union to increase investor uncertainty and hurt economic
growth
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW 26
Long-Term Political Outlook 27
A Maturing Regional Power27
We consider Poland's long-term political risk profile to be on an upward trajectory, reflecting the country's maturing political institutions
and greater confidence in the conduct of external affairs Solid macroeconomic fundamentals underpin our expectation for improvement
over the long run Nevertheless, Poland still faces significant challenges to political stability in its external relations and at home
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 31
SWOT Analysis 31
Operational Risk Index 31
Operational Risk 32
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK 32
Economic Openness 33
TABLE: TOP 5 IMPORT PRODUCTS and IMPORT PARTNERS, 2010-2014, USDMN 33
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS 34
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES 35
Availability Of Labour 38
TABLE: EMERGING EUROPE - AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR RISK 38
TABLE: TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES FOR MIGRANT WORKERS 39
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR ('000), 2008-2012 40
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 45
Global Macro Outlook 45
Tentative Stability, But New Risks Emerging45
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS 45
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 46
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 47
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS 49

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 12000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“Rise in crude oil production worldwide drives the COFI market” The global market size of COFI is estimated to reach USD 1.73 billion by 2021 from 1.32 billion in 2016, at a CAGR of 5.5%. Excessive ...

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

  • $ 7000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Transparency Market Research

The filter bags market report provides an in-depth analysis of the global filter bag market for the period 2014 – 2024, wherein 2015 is the base year and the years from 2016 to 2024 is the forecast period. ...


ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.