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Rwanda Country Risk Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 25 pages

Core Views We maintain an overall positive view for economic growth in Rwanda, forecasting real GDP growth to average 7.1% over the next five years. The government's plans to improve energy and infrastructure will prompt increased levels of fixed investment, underpinning our positive growth outlook. This will follow a weaker growth performance in 2016, as adverse weather conditions weigh on the agricultural sector. Rwanda's budget deficit will remain fairly wide in 2016 as the government boosts spending on further improving the country's business environment. This spending plan is sustainable despite a fall in grants, as government debt remains at manageable levels and real GDP growth will be robust. Rwanda will face continued cross-border violence in the coming quarters given the country's porous borders and a high level of instability within the Great Lakes region. That said, regional unrest will not pose a substantial threat to Rwanda's stability. President Kagame running for a third term will spook foreign aid donors, despite overwhelming support for the decision in a December 2015 referendum, which could lead to a faster-than-expected decline in grants.

Table Of Contents

Rwanda Country Risk Report Q3 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Fixed Investment Growth Underpins Positive GDP Outlook8
We maintain an overall positive view for economic growth in Rwanda, forecasting real GDP growth to average 71% over the next five
years The government's plans to improve energy and infrastructure will prompt increased levels of fixed investment, underpinning our
positive growth outlook This will follow a weaker growth performance in 2016, as adverse weather conditions weigh on the agricultural
sector
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook 11
Manageable Debt Levels Support Expansionary Budget11
Rwanda's budget deficit will remain fairly wide in 2016 as the government boosts spending on further improving the country's business
environment This spending plan is sustainable despite a fall in grants, as government debt remains at manageable levels and real GDP
growth will be robust
Structural Fiscal Position 12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES12
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 15
The Rwandan Economy To 2025 15
A Bright Spark In Sub-Saharan Africa15
Rwanda has several structural strengths that will work in its favour over the coming decade, including sustainable drivers of real GDP
growth, a strong commitment to reform and supportive business environment, rising productivity and services diversification
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS15
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 17
SWOT Analysis 17
BMI Political Risk Index 17
Domestic Politics 18
Regional Unrest Will Not Threaten Stability18
Rwanda will face continued cross- border violence in the coming quarters given the country's porous borders and a high level of
instability within the Great Lakes region That said, regional unrest will not pose a substantial threat to Rwanda's stability
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook 21
Global Macro Outlook 21
Tentative Stability, But New Risks Emerging21
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS21
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %22
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %23
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS25

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