1. Market Research
  2. > Energy & Environment
  3. > Energy
  4. > Oil and Gas Energy Market Trends
  5. > Spain Country Risk Report Q3 2016

Spain Country Risk Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 49 pages

Core Views Spanish economic growth has peaked and will slow again in 2016. This will reflect the combined impact of political uncertainty, softer external trade volumes and more sluggish improvements to the county's labour market. Unless some form of eurozone-wide debt haircuts are eventually agreed, Spain's fiscal position will pose systemic risks to the economy once monetary policy normalises from 2018. Although Spain's current account surplus will gradually shrink, its external imbalances will pose much less of a threat to wider financial stability than in years gone by. Opinion polls in Spain have barely moved since the inconclusive December 2015 election, implying a second election will leave Spain with a similarly fragmented parliament. A ‘grand coalition' between the centre-right People's Party (PP), centre-left Socialists (PSOE) and centrist Citizens (C's) party is the most likely outcome, but a strong showing from the far left Podemos could tip the balance of favour of a leftist coalition.

Table Of Contents

Spain Country Risk Report Q3 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Multiple Challenges To Growth8
Spanish real GDP growth will outperform peers in the eurozone periphery over the next decade, but will remain sluggish by historical
standards A deteriorating demographic profile and sluggish productivity gains will be long-term headwinds for growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 10
TABLE: REAL GDP FORECASTS10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS11
TABLE: GOVERMENT EXPENDITURE FORECASTS11
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS11
TABLE: NET EXPORT FORECASTS12
External Trade And Investment Outlook 12
Fewer Threats To External Stability12
Spain's current account surplus will gradually shrink over the next few years, due to recovering imports and sluggish global trade
volumes Spain's external imbalances will remain much smaller than in years gone by, when its massive current account deficits were a
reflection of unsustainable leverage in the economy
Outlook On External Position 14
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 201414
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 201414
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook 16
Debt Restructuring Will Be Needed16
While aggressive monetary easing will mask underlying threats to Spain's economy from its credit risk profile, this will not last Unless
some form of eurozone-wide debt haircuts are eventually agreed between members of the currency union, Spain's fiscal position will
pose systemic risks to the economy once monetary policy normalises from 2018
Structural Fiscal Position 17
TABLE: FISCAL POSITION18
TABLE: GOVERNMENT DEBT18
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE SOURCES19
Monetary Policy Outlook 20
Deflationary Spiral To End In Q41620
Aggressive monetary easing is unlikely to stimulate significant Spanish inflation in either 2016 or 2017 Instead, a rebound in global oil
prices from H216 will gradually push up headline price growth figures
Regional Monetary Policy 21
ECB Corporate Bonds Quantitative Easing QandA21
TABLE: BMI ASSESSMENT OF 20 LARGEST BONDS ELIGIBLE FOR ECB CORPORATE SECTOR PURCHASE PROGRAMME
(SECONDARY MARKET)22
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 25
The Spanish Economy To 2025 25
Slow, But Steady Growth Ahead25
In order to correct for the massive imbalances built up during Spain's decade-long economic boom, the economy is now coming through
a period of rebalancing that will result in a lower long-run growth potential
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS25
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 27
SWOT Analysis 27
BMI Political Risk Index 27
Domestic Politics 28
Second Election Will Lead To Similar Impasse28
Spain's political impasse has months more to run, with the June 26 election result set to be as inconclusive as the December 2015
vote Although we expect some form of coalition government to be formed eventually, there is scope for months more uncertainty as
different parties attempt to form a government
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW28
Long-Term Political Outlook 30
Political Challenges Beyond The Recession30
Spain's economic malaise has put several structural political issues into the spotlight Challenges over the next decade will include
unemployment, demographic changes and constitutional questions
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 33
SWOT Analysis 33
Operational Risk Index 33
Operational Risk 34
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LABOUR MARKET RISK34
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LOGISTICS RISK38
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - CRIME AND SECURITY RISK41
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK43
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 45
Global Macro Outlook 45
Tentative Stability, But New Risks Emerging45
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS45
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 46
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 47
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS49

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 12000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“Rise in crude oil production worldwide drives the COFI market” The global market size of COFI is estimated to reach USD 1.73 billion by 2021 from 1.32 billion in 2016, at a CAGR of 5.5%. Excessive ...

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

  • $ 7000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Transparency Market Research

The filter bags market report provides an in-depth analysis of the global filter bag market for the period 2014 – 2024, wherein 2015 is the base year and the years from 2016 to 2024 is the forecast period. ...


ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.