1. Market Research
  2. > Energy & Environment
  3. > Energy
  4. > Oil and Gas Energy Market Trends
  5. > Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report Q3 2016

Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 39 pages

Core Views

Tight fiscal and monetary policy stance have brought a degree ofstability to the Sudanese economy following the painful split fromSouth Sudan. That said, we believe the economy will continue to feelthe lasting effects of this painful adjustment for the foreseeable futureas the country’s hostile political and investment climate preclude ameaningful economic revival.South Sudan’s August peace deal continues to hold, and was mostrecently reaffirmed with the April 29 formation of a unity government.However, the political scene will remain highly unstable, owing todisagreements over the formation of new states, continued instancesof violence and severe economic challenges, not least skyrocketinginflation.Despite a tentative improvement on the political front, South Sudan’seconomic crisis continues to deepen. The devaluation of the SouthSudanese pound in late 2015 will likely keep inflation in or close totriple figures for most of 2016, heaping further pain on the war-torn,import reliant economy.Major Forecast ChangesNo major forecast changes

Table Of Contents

Sudan and South Sudan Country Risk Report Q3 2016
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risks5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Sudan Economic Growth Outlook 8
Weak Operating Environment Will Keep Growth Subdued8
Sudan's economic activity will remain subdued in the coming years While moderating inflation will bolster growth in the coming quarters,
the weak security environment and US-led sanctions will act as a continued obstacle to much-needed investment
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS10
South Sudan Economic Growth Outlook 10
Unity Government No Panacea For Economic Woes10
Triple digit inflation and sluggish crude production will see the South Sudanese economy contract for a second year in 2016 While the
country will return to positive growth in 2017, structural obstacles, including continued political uncertainty and poor infrastructure, will
undermine a rapid economic turn-around
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 12
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS 12
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 12
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 12
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS 12
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS13
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast 15
The Sudanese Economy To 2025 15
Subdued Long-Term Growth Outlook15
Sudan faces persistent sluggish growth in the years ahead Structural obstacles following the secession of South Sudan coupled with
the impact of Western-led economic sanctions will keep growth well below capacity
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS15
The South Sudanese Economy To 2025 16
A Potential Unrealised16
The South Sudanese economy has significant potential due to its huge oil reserves, expanding population, large amount of arable land,
and proposed integration with East African nations However, it faces serious challenges in order to fulfil this potential, including security
concerns with its neighbour to the north and among rival ethnic groups, a gaping infrastructure deficit, and a lack of human or physical
capital
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS 16
Chapter 3: Political Outlook 19
SWOT Analysis 19
BMI Political Risk Index 19
Sudan Domestic Politics 20
Despite Unity Government, Political Risks Will Remain High20
The formation of a new unity government between President Salva Kiir and Vice-President Riek Machar is a tentative positive step
for South Sudan However, the political scene will remain highly unstable, owing to disagreements over the formation of new states,
skyrocketing inflation, and Machar's continued presidential ambitions
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 23
SWOT Analysis 23
Operational Risk Index 23
Operational Risk 24
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK 24
Economic Openness 25
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS 25
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES 26
Availability of Labour 28
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR RISK 29
TABLE: TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES FOR MIGRANTS30
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 35
Global Macro Outlook 35
Summer Of Risk35
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS35
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 36
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 37
TABLE: SUDAN - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS39
TABLE: SOUTH SUDAN - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS39

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 12000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“Rise in crude oil production worldwide drives the COFI market” The global market size of COFI is estimated to reach USD 1.73 billion by 2021 from 1.32 billion in 2016, at a CAGR of 5.5%. Excessive ...

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

  • $ 7000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Transparency Market Research

The filter bags market report provides an in-depth analysis of the global filter bag market for the period 2014 – 2024, wherein 2015 is the base year and the years from 2016 to 2024 is the forecast period. ...


ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.