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  5. > New Zealand Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

New Zealand Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 64 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Falling production and steady gains in consumption will maintain New Zealand's status as anet importer of both crude oil and refined fuels over our forecast period to 2025. Low crude prices willallow the country to diversify its crude options and ease its heavy dependence on the Middle East. Gasimports remain unlikely, as a small consumer market and limited potential for large-scale consumptiongrowth deter international investment.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

- Additional gas from the Mangahewa and the Pohokura fields will support natural gas production toincrease through to 2020, though limited scope for significant new discoveries to offset natural declineswill take its toll on overall output from 2021 and thereafter.

- The country's small domestic consumer base means that major consumption growth is unlikely. Thisposes a major headwind to attracting greater foreign investment in its downstream, as well as in largescaleinfrastructure projects.

- Despite improving utilisation rates at the country's refinery, New Zealand will depend on imports fromregional suppliers to meet rising fuels demand. Favourable prices will allow New Zealand to diversify itscrude sources, benefitting the likes of Qatar, Brunei and Russia.

- New Zealand's lack of an LNG import or export infrastructure means that its gas consumption remainscapped by domestic gas production. The country's small domestic market and largely stagnantconsumption growth outlook renders expensive LNG terminal projects infeasible.

Table Of Contents

New Zealand Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (New Zealand 2014-2020) 7
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts 7
SWOT 8
Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Upstream Exploration 9
Latest Updates 9
Structural Trends 9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (New Zealand 2014-2019) 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (New Zealand 2020-2025) 11
Upstream Projects 13
Table: New Zealand - Key Upstream Projects 13
Upstream Production - Oil 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Oil Production (New Zealand 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (New Zealand 2020-2025) 18
Upstream Production - Gas 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Gas Production (New Zealand 2014-2019) 19
Table: Gas Production (New Zealand 2020-2025) 20
Refining 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (New Zealand 2014-2019) 22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (New Zealand 2020-2025) 23
Refined Fuels Consumption 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Refined Products Consumption (2014-2019) 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (New Zealand 2020-2025) 25
Gas Consumption 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Gas Consumption (New Zealand 2014-2019) 29
Table: Gas Consumption (New Zealand 2020-2025) 29
Trade - Oil 30
Crude Oil Forecasts 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (New Zealand 2014-2019) 32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (New Zealand 2020-2025) 32
Fuels Trade Forecasts 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (New Zealand 2014-2019) 33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (New Zealand 2020-2025) 34
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 35
Latest Updates 35
Structural Trends 35
Table: Gas Net Exports (New Zealand 2014-2019) 35
Table: Gas Net Exports (New Zealand 2020-2025) 36
Industry Risk Reward Index 37
Asia - Risk/Reward Index 37
Table: Asia's Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 38
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Production Cuts Reinforce Bearish Outlook 39
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 40
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Refinery Developments Lift Scores For Malaysia And The Philippines 41
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 42
New Zealand - Risk/Reward Index 43
Upstream Index - Overview 43
Upstream Index - Rewards 43
Upstream Index - Risks 43
Downstream Index - Overview 43
Market Overview 44
New Zealand Energy Market Overview 44
Regulatory Structure 44
Table: 2013 Permit Duration Changes 44
Fiscal Regime 45
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators 45
Licensing Rounds 45
Table: 2015 Block Offer Winners 46
Table: 2016 Block Offer Release Areas 46
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 47
Oil Refineries 47
Table: Oil Refineries 47
Oil Trade And Storage Facilities 47
Oil And Gas Pipelines 47
Gas Storage Facilities 47
Regional Overview 49
Asia Regional Overview 49
Glossary 57
Table: Glossary Of Terms 57
Methodology 59
Industry Forecast Methodology 59
Source 61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 61
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 63
Table: Weighting 64

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