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Ghana Power Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 53 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Underperforming hydropower and gas feedstock irregularities will keep Ghana's powergeneration subdued over our 10-year forecast period. An annual average growth rate of 2.2% is forecast,driven mostly by new gas-fired capacity and the commissioning of the Ayitepa wind farm. Significantpotential for thermal power investment remains, provided gas exploration obstacles are overcome.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- The second phase of the Asogli gas-fired power plant has been commissioned, adding 180 megawatts(MW) of capacity to the power grid. Another 180MW is due to be added. Due to erratic gas-feedstock,we still forecast total gas-fired generation to be below potential.

- Construction of a 2,000MW coal-fired power plant will reportedly start in mid-2016, which will involvethe Volta River Authority (VRA) and the Chinese Shenzhen Energy Corporation (SEC). The coal for theproject will reportedly be imported from South Africa and Colombia. We await further concrete updatesbefore including the project in our forecasts.

- Our hydropower forecasts remain unchanged since last quarter, although hydropower will now generateless than 70% of total electricity by 2025 due to new thermal capacity being forecast to come online.

- We have included the 225MW Ayitepa wind farm in our forecasts and expect it to be fully online by2018. The wind farm will be deployed in two phases, with the first phase having capacity of 150MW,while phase 2 will be the final 75MW.

- As a result of the Ayitepa wind farm being included, our forecasts are non-hydropower renewablesgeneration will increase from 0.01 terawatt hour (TWh) in 2016to 0.65TWh in 2025.

- The Volta River Authority reportedly owes the Ghana National Gas Company (GNGC) USD103.6mn.

- We forecast transmission and distribution losses will decrease from 26.5% of total output in 2016 to18.1% in 2025 as upgrades and extensions to the existing grid network are implemented.

Table Of Contents

Ghana Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Ghana 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Ghana Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Ghana 2015-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Ghana 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Ghana Power Forecast Scenario 11
Thermal Power Generation And Capacity Forecast 11
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 12
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 14
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2014-2019) 15
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2020-2025) 16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2014-2019) 16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2020-2025) 17
Electricity Consumption 17
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2014-2019) 18
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2020-2025) 18
Transmission And Distribution, Imports and Exports 18
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2014-2019) 20
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2020-2025) 20
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2014-2019) 20
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2020-2025) 20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 21
SSA Power RRI: Shifting Scores Amid A Deteriorating Outlook 21
Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 27
Ghana Power Risk/Reward Index 28
Rewards 28
Risks 28
Market Overview 30
Key Policies And Market Structure 30
Regulation And Competition 30
Pricing 30
SSA Key Policies/Market Structure 31
Competitive Landscape 34
Competitive Landscape 34
Regional Overview 39
Middle East And Africa - Regional Overview 39
Glossary 47
Table: Glossary Of Terms 47
Methodology 48
Methodology And Sources 48
Industry Forecast Methodology 48
Sources 51
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 51
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 53

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