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Poland Infrastructure Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 65 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Poland's construction industry is poised for growth over the first half of our forecast period,driven primarily by investment into transport infrastructure, the largest sector in nominal value terms andmain beneficiary of EU funding. We also anticipate robust growth in residential construction - already thelargest residential market in the CEE region - on the back of a series of housing programmes focusing onaffordable housing. A major downside risk to our forecast is the government's escalating feud with theEU, with the potential to jeopardise future funding, on which Poland's construction sector is heavily reliantfor key projects.

Forecast & Industry Developments

- Growth in Poland's construction sector in 2016 will slow to 4.3% in real terms as the EU temporarilyslows the disbursement of funding for new member states. As funding for Poland is expected to pick upover the remainder of the EU's 2014-2020 budgetary cycle, we expect the construction sector to resumeits growth pattern of the last two years, leaving intact our forecast for annual average growth of 3.8% inreal terms over the first half of our forecast period up to 2020.

- The rail and road sectors will emerge as growth outperformers, expected to post annual real growthaverages of 5.3% and 4.3% respectively over the next five years. Key projects in these areas include thenewly announced Talinn-Warsaw railway line and the EU-funded 330km highway, announced in March2016.

- The governing Law & Justice Party's commitment to retaining the dominance of coal in the domesticpower generation mix was further demonstrated in April, when it bailed out Poland's largest coal minerKW at the expense of private shareholders.

Table Of Contents

Poland Infrastructure Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Five Year Forecast Scenario (Poland 2016-2020) 7
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index (Poland) 8
SWOT 9
Infrastructure SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Poland 2015-2025) 11
Structural Trends 12
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook and Overview 16
Latest Updates 16
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Poland 2015-2025) 16
Structural Trends 17
Table: Poland Key Transport Projects 25
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook and Overview 26
Latest Updates 26
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Poland 2015-2025) 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Key Energy and Utilities Projects 34
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook and Overview 35
Latest Updates 35
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Poland 2015-2025) 35
Structural Trends 35
Table: Key Residential And Non-Residential Projects 39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 40
Poland - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 40
Rewards 40
Risks 41
CEE Infrastructure RRI: EU Funding Essential As Risks Deter Private Investors 42
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 46
Market Overview 48
Competitive Landscape 48
Table: Key Company Financial Data 48
Company Profile 51
Budimex 51
Table: Budimex Key Financial Statistics (EURmn) 54
Skanska Poland 55
Table: Skanska Key Financial Statistics (SEK M) 57
Methodology 58
Industry Forecast Methodology 58
Sector-Specific Methodology 59
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 63
Sector-Specific Methodology 64
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 65

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