India Power Market Outlook & Forecast 2014

• Publication date: September 2010

Power sector is one of the crucial inputs to the growth of other industrial sectors and overall economic growth of India. It has been rightly awarded the status of infrastructure sector which enables tax holiday and priority status in bank lending. India has fourth largest installed generating capacity in world but the per capita consumption of electricity is very low owing to a huge gap between demand and supply of power. Traditionally ...

Power sector is one of the crucial inputs to the growth of other industrial sectors and overall economic growth of India. It has been rightly awarded the status of infrastructure sector which enables tax holiday and priority status in bank lending.

India has fourth largest installed generating capacity in world but the per capita consumption of electricity is very low owing to a huge gap between demand and supply of power. Traditionally the power sector was dominated by public sector but has been opened for competition from private and foreign players by government sector.

The power sector is highly regulated by the government and is dependent on the policies framed regarding bidding for power projects, regulations regarding transmission of the power between states and pricing for power supply to consumers is also decided by the government.

While other infrastructure sectors such as telecom, roads, and airports have seen much progress in last few years as India embarked on a fast growth track, power sector has lagged behind with not much progress.

“India Power Market Forecast 2014” report discusses around the following areas-
• Present Installed capacity and plans for future
• Demand and supply scenario
• Rural electrification market
• Ultra Mega Power Projects in India
• Power equipment market
• Sector Trends
• Smart Grid Infrastructure
• Government, Policy and Regulations in power industry
• Competitive landscape

“India Power Market Forecast 2014” has covered all the aspects of power market such as generation, transmission and distribution. This study gives unprejudiced view on various aspects of power market and helps reader to get complete overview on latest trends, market potential, infrastructure and investments related to the industry. This study will help investors, infrastructure developers, business professionals to identify the market opportunities in the kingdom and will help them in market centric decision making process.

Energy Industry in India

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary 7
2. Indian Power Sector Overview 8
3. Indian Power Sector Performance: Current & Future Scenario 11
3.1 Installation Capacity by Fuel 11
3.1.1 Thermal 13
3.1.2 Hydro Power 17
3.1.3 Nuclear 19
3.1.4 Wind 24
3.1.5 Solar 26
3.1.6 Biomass 29
3.2 Installation Capacity by Sector 30
3.2.1 Central Government 31
3.2.2 State Government 33
3.2.3 Private Sector 33
3.2.4 Power Capacity Forecast 34
3.3 Power Generation 35
3.4 Demand-Supply Scenario 36
3.4.1 Power Demand Forecast 2014 41
3.5 Distribution 41
3.6 Transmission 42
4. Rural Electrification 44
5. Ultra Mega Power Projects 47
5.1 Regulation of UMPP 51
5.2 The Bidding Process 52
6. Power Equipment Market 54
6.1 Transmission Lines 55
6.2 Transformers 56
6.3 Switchgears 56
6.4 Energy Meters 57
7. Sector Trends 59
7.1 Rising Investment 59
7.2 Power Sector Reform 60
7.3 Focus on Renewable Energy 67
8. Opportunity for Smart Grid Infrastructure 74
9. Policy & Regulatory Framework 77
9.1 Electricity Act, 2003 78
9.2 Central Electricity Authority 80
9.3 Central Electricity Regulatory Commission 83
9.4 FDI Policy 87
9.5 Incentives/ Benefits 87
10. Competitive Landscape 89
10.1 NTPC 89
10.2 NHPC 92
10.3 Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd 95
10.4 Rural Electrification Corporation Ltd 97
10.5 Reliance Power 99
10.6 Adani Power Limited 100
10.7 Tata Power 102
10.8 Suzlon Energy 104
10.9 GVK Power & Infrastructure 106




List of Figures
Figure 2 1: India Installed Power Capacity (MW), FY’07-FY’10 8
Figure 2 2: Power Demand (Million Units), FY’07-FY’10 9
Figure 2 3: Per Capita Power Consumption (kWh), FY’03-FY’08 9
Figure 3 1: Installed Capacity by Fuel (%), 2009 & 2010 11
Figure 3 2: Installed Thermal Capacity (MW), FY’07-FY’11* 13
Figure 3 3: Thermal Power Installed Capacity by Fuel (%), FY’11* 13
Figure 3 4: Thermal Power Installed Capacity by Region (%), FY’11* 14
Figure 3 5: Thermal Power Generation Plant Load Factor by Fuel (%),2008 and 2009 16
Figure 3 6: Plant Load Factor of Thermal Power Stations (%), FY’05 to FY’10 16
Figure 3 7: Hydro Power Installed Capacity (MW), FY’07- FY’11* 18
Figure 3 8: Hydro Power Installed capacity by Region (%), FY’11 19
Figure 3 9: Hydro Power Plants Plant Load Factor (%), FY’05-FY’08 19
Figure 3 10: Nuclear Power Generation (Million Units), FY’07-FY’11 20
Figure 3 11: Nuclear Power Installed Capacity by Region (%), FY’11 20
Figure 3 12: Map of Atomic Energy Establishments in India 22
Figure 3 13: Installed Wind Power Capacity (MW), FY’07-FY’10 24
Figure 3 14: India Solar Radiation Map 27
Figure 3 15: Installed Power Capacity by Central, State & Private Sector (MW), January 2010 31
Figure 3 16: Power Plant Operating Availability by Sector (%), FY’08 31
Figure 3 17: Central Government Power Capacity Addition (MW), FY’05-FY’10 32
Figure 3 18: Central Government Power Capacity Addition by fuel (MW), FY’10 32
Figure 3 19: State Government Power Capacity (MW), FY’05-FY’10 33
Figure 3 20: State Government Power Capacity Addition by Fuel (MW), FY’10 33
Figure 3 21: Private Sector Power Capacity (MW), FY’05-FY’10 34
Figure 3 22: Private Sector Power Capacity by Fuel (MW), FY’10 34
Figure 3 23: Forecast of power installed capacity (in MW) from FY’11 to FY’14 35
Figure 3 24: Power Generation (Billion Units), FY’04-FY’10 35
Figure 3 25: Hydro power Generation (MW) FY’01 to FY’08 (MW) 36
Figure 3 26: Power Demand, Supply and Shortage Scenario (Million Unit), FY’05-FY’10 37
Figure 3 28: Forecast of power demand (in MU) from FY’11 to FY’14 41
Figure 3 29: All India Transformation, T&D and AT&C losses (%), FY’05-FY’08 42
Figure 6 1: Composition of Electric Power Equipment Market (%), FY’10 55
Figure 6 2: Size of Indian Transmission Llines Market (Rs. Crore), FY’05-FY’10 55
Figure 6 3: Size of Indian Transformer Market from FY’05-FY’10 ( Rs. Crore) 56
Figure 6 4: Switchgear Market (Rs. Crore), FY’05-FY’10 57
Figure 6 5: Energy Meters Market (Rs. Crore), FY’05-FY’10 58
Figure 7 1: FDI in Power Sector (US$ Million), FY’09-FY’11 59
Figure 7 2: Funds release and utilized under APDP from FY’03 to FY’08 (in Rs. Crore) 65
Figure 7 3: Funds released under incentive component of APDP (Rs. Crore) 66
Figure 7 4: Sourcesa / Systems Estimated Mid-Term (2032) Potential (in MW) 70
Figure 9 1: Structure of Power regulation in India


Companies mentioned

1. National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC)
2. National Hydro Power Corporation (NHPC)
3. Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd
4. Rural Electrification Corporation Ltd
5. Reliance Power
6. Adani Power Ltd
7. Tata Power
8. Suzlon Energy
9. GVK Power & Infrastructure