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Rapidly Evolving Defence Markets, Part 1

  • June 2015
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 130 pages

Summary

Table of Contents

Combat Readiness Plans Win Over Indigenization Targets

In this 2015 edition, 10 new countries with rapidly evolving defence spending have been selected. This study comprises a thorough market assessment for 2015-2025 of Colombia, Kuwait, Malaysia, Morocco, and Singapore, including projected defence spending by appropriation: procurement (equipment), personnel, operations and maintenance, infrastructure, and research and development. Each chapter includes a country outlook and overviews of the military environment, domestic programmes, key local participants, capability gaps that should be closely monitored, and evolution of the local supply chain. The other 5 countries (Angola, Azerbaijan, Peru, Qatar, and South Korea) are assessed in the Rapidly Evolving Defence Markets, Part 2 study.

Key Findings
- Following years of continued economic and military growth, the selected rapidly evolving countries will steadily increase military spending as each confronts the challenges of deterring external threats, addressing modernisation requirements, and supporting the local industrial base.
- The 5 selected countries—Colombia, Kuwait, Malaysia, Morocco, and Singapore—are expected to spend a total of $ billion on defence between 2015 and 2025.
Forecast military expenditures are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of % from 2015 to 2025.
- In each country, military personnel expenditures remain the most significant despite personnel reduction planning (in Malaysia) or advised decreases (Colombia, Morocco) to relieve budget pressure.
- Operations and maintenance (O&M) spending will grow at a fast pace, with more than $ billion to be spent annually by the countries to maintain ageing fleets and
prepare armed forces for rising external threats.
- New equipment funding will be more measured, with an average of $ billion to be spent annually by the 5 countries, but this figure does not include foreign financial aid
and loans, which could be significant in the case of Morocco or Malaysia.
- Colombia will remain the biggest spender, accounting for % of total spending. Its defence budget is expected to reach at least $ billion in 2025. Singapore is the
second biggest spender, representing % of total spending; it is forecast to grow at a CAGR of % over the next years.
- Morocco is expected to register the highest CAGR amongst the selected countries—5.8% over the forecast period, yet with a budget far less than the biggest spenders. Its
budget will grow $ billion between 2015 and 2025.
- Kuwait’s expected CAGR of % through 2025 translates into a relatively small budget increase of $ billion. Financial difficulties in Malaysia are directly hindering its military
spending and its ability to acquire new equipment.
- A common aspiration among these countries is further developing a domestic defence industry in order to decrease reliance on foreign equipment and enhance local expertise.
However, the highly competitive global marketplace hinders such attempts; market prospects remain mostly limited to the local base with the exception of Singapore, which
is increasingly eying export markets due to its advanced industrial base.

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