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Germany Retail Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 65 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: A favourable macroeconomic environment, characterised by robust economic growth, risingconsumer confidence levels, improving labour market situation as well as attractive crediting conditions,bodes well for the country's large and well-developed retail sector. We believe that the brighteningeconomic outlook will support sustained spending growth in the retail sector, which we expect to accelerateboth in 2016 and 2017. That said, we note that the downturn in the broader economic environment,following the Brexit referendum in late June 2016, could have a negative effect on the country'sperformance and its retail sector.Key Views & Developments

- According to Germany's national statistics office Destatis, the country's total retail trade value hasincreased by 1.9% (y-o-y) in real terms during the first four months in 2016. In April, retail turnover roseby 2.3% (y-o-y) in real terms.

- We forecast headline retail spending to average 5.2% growth per annum (in USD terms) over during2016-2020. Coming from a very low base, education spending is set to record the strongest expansion, averaging 5.8% annually during our forecast period. In the meantime, the largest expenditure category -housing & utilities - will see its share increasing to 26% in the overall household spending pie.

Table Of Contents

Germany Retail Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Headline Retail Forecast 11
Table: Total Household Spending (Germany 2013-2020) 13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Germany 2013-2020) 14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Germany 2013-2020) 15
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Germany 2013-2020) 16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Germany 2013-2020) 17
Retail Sector Forecast 19
Food, Drink and Tobacco 20
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (Germany 2013-2020) 20
Clothing and Footwear 21
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Germany 2013-2020) 21
Household Goods 22
Table: Household Goods Spending (Germany 2013-2020) 22
Personal Care 23
Table: Personal Care Spending (Germany 2013-2020) 24
Household Numbers And Income Forecast 25
Table: Household Income Data (Germany 2013-2020) 27
Table: Labour Market Data (Germany 2013-2020) 28
Demographic Forecast 29
Table: Total Population (Germany 2013-2020) 31
Table: Population: Babies (Germany 2013-2020) 31
Table: Population: Young Children (Germany 2013-2020) 31
Table: Population: Children (Germany 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Germany 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Young People (Germany 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Germany 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Germany 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Young Adults (Germany 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Germany 2013-2020) 34
Table: Population: Urban (Germany 2013-2020) 34
Industry Risk/Reward Index 35
Developed States Risk/Reward Index 35
Table: Developed States Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q416 35
Industry Risk/Reward Index 36
Rewards 36
Risks 37
Market Overview 39
Competitive Landscape 46
Clothing and Footwear 46
Table: Selected Clothing And Footwear Retailers 46
Household Goods 47
Table: Selected Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement Retailers 47
Electronics 48
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers 48
Department Stores 49
Table: Selected Department Stores Retailers 49
E-Commerce 50
Table: Selected E-commerce Companies And Online Marketplaces 50
Pharmacies 51
Table: Selected Drugstores And Pharmacies 51
Glossary 52
Methodology 59
Industry Forecast Methodology 59
Sources 62
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 62
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 65

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