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Belgium Country Risk Report Q4 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 23 pages

Core Views

Belgium's economy will expand at a steady pace over the coming years, marginally lagging behind average eurozone real GDP growth rates. This relatively poor outlook is a reflection of the likely impact of government fiscal austerity measures and the short-term negative impacts of structural labour market reforms. These same reforms will ensure that Belgium makes up some competiveness gains against regional peers over the long-term, which will be good for inward investment and the country's growth outlook to 2025.The centre-right government of Charles Michel is unlikely to regainpopular support lost to rivals in recent quarters, as it struggles todevelop coherent responses to the elevated terrorist threat andunrest caused by its labour market reforms.

Table Of Contents

Belgium Country Risk Report Q4 2016
Executive Summary. 5
Core Views5
Key Risks..5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis.. 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook. 8
Tepid Outlook Compared To Eurozone Peers8
Belgian real GDP growth will lag eurozone averages in the coming decade, amidst the government's ongoing fiscal austerity drive and a
challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Structural reforms being implemented by the current administration will ensure that growth picks
up more substantially beyond 2020.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS.. 10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS.. 10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS 10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS. 10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS.. 10
Chapter 2: Political Outlook. 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Political Risk Index. 13
Domestic Politics.. 14
Security And Austerity To Conspire Against Government.14
Support for the Belgian government will decline further in the coming months. This will be due to the administration's perceived
mishandling of security issues, as well as its ongoing push to tackle labour market competitiveness issues and the country's high public
debt load.
TABLE: POLITICAL RISK OVERVIEW..14
Long-Term Political Outlook.. 16
Unity To Prevail..16
Flemish separatism, though less significant than in previous years, will remain a political risk facing Belgium over the coming decade,
spurred by economic, cultural and linguistic divisions. An outright dissolution of the state is unlikely given the still sizeable proportion of
the population that supports union. Moreover, threats of terrorism will be an even more prominent issue in Belgium than in many other
European countries.
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook 19
Global Macro Outlook. 19
Brexit Risk Casts A Long Shadow..19
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS..19
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % 20
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %.. 21
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS. 23

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