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Cameroon Country Risk Report Q4 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 39 pages

Core Views

Cameroon's real GDP growth will be robust in 2016 and 2017, onthe back of rising fixed investment and improved trade dynamics.Over the long term, the country remains one of our favourites in theSub-Saharan Africa region, with improving logistics infrastructureset to buoy investor sentiment export and bolster fixed investment,while continued gains in natural gas and coca production boostexport growth.Cameroon's budget deficit will fall further into the red in 2016 as thegovernment continues with its ambitious infrastructure investmentpipeline and low oil prices weigh on revenues despite increasingproduction. Strong GDP growth and the development of non-oilsectors will see this deficit narrow from 2017, keeping the fiscalposition stable.Cameroon's current account deficit will deepen in 2016 as stronginvestment into the country's infrastructure network increases theshortfall in domestic savings. The shortfall will be reflected in thegrowing trade deficit, as capital goods are imported to facilitate newprojects and exports remain stagnant amid a climate of prolongedcommodity weakness.

Table Of Contents

Cameroon Country Risk Report Q4 2016
Executive Summary. 5
Core Views5
Key Risks..5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis.. 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook. 8
Fixed Investment And Stronger Exports To Buoy Growth.8
Cameroon's real GDP growth will be robust in 2016 and 2017, on the back of rising fixed investment and improved trade dynamics.
Over the long term, the country remains one of our favourites in the Sub-Saharan Africa region, with improving logistics infrastructure
set to buoy investor sentiment export and bolster fixed investment, while continued gains in natural gas and coca production boost
export growth.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS.9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS.9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS.10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS..10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook 11
Stable Fiscal Position Despite Higher Expenditure.11
Despite the significant increase in the public debt burden seen over 2014/2015, Cameroon's fiscal position looks stable over our longterm
outlook.
TABLE: FISCAL AND GOVERNMENT DEBT FORECASTS.11
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES..11
Outlook On External Position. 12
TABLE: CAPITAL and FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE..12
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT FORECASTS12
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 201413
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014..13
Monetary Policy Framework 14
TABLE: LONG TERM MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS 14
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast. 17
The Cameroon Economy To 2025 17
Growth Outlook Stable As Infrastructure Pipeline Pays Off..17
High levels of investment into Cameroon's infrastructure and a gradual recovery in commodity prices will yield strong real GDP growth
over the next 10 years. While economic growth will help sustain the country's growing debt burden, this outlook is threatened by
mounting political risk.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS.17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook. 21
SWOT Analysis 21
BMI Political Risk Index. 21
Domestic Politics . 22
Calls For Early Elections Highlight Succession Risk.22
Recent calls by Cameroon's ruling party for presidential elections to be brought forward to Q117 instead of 2018 will exacerbate political
tensions and draw attention to the uncertainty surrounding President Paul Biya's eventual succession. Meanwhile, attacks by Boko
Haram will pose an ongoing foreign threat.
Long-Term Political Outlook.. 23
Stability Threatened
Both At Home And Abroad..23
Cameroon's position as an island of relative political stability in a tumultuous region will be tried and tested over the next 10 years, as
the inevitability of regime change comes to bear. The lack of democratic institutions and a hostile neighbourhood will pose the biggest
challenges to Cameroon's long-term political outlook.
Chapter 4: Operational Risk. 25
SWOT Analysis 25
Operational Risk Index.. 25
Operational Risk. 26
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK26
Market Size and Utilities Analysis.. 27
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - MARKET SIZE AND UTILITIES RISK 28
Labour Costs 31
TABLE: REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE..32
Chapter 5:BMI Global Macro Outlook. 35
Global Macro Outlook. 35
Brexit Risk Casts A Long Shadow..35
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS.. 35
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %36
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %..37
MACROECONOMIC FORECAST.39
TABLE: CAMEROON - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS39

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