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Cote d’Ivoire Country Risk Report Q4 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 43 pages

Core Views

The Ivoirien economy will continue to fire on all cylinders in 2016,as strong macroeconomic fundamentals and a reduction in politicalrisk following the 2015 presidential elections encourage inwardinvestment, and we forecast a real GDP expansion of 9.6%.We maintain our view that Côte d'Ivoire's budget deficit will remainwide in 2016 and 2017 as the government invests in a series ofkey infrastructure projects, before beginning to decrease from 2018onwards. With the eurobond issuance we had previously anticipatedlooking less likely, we believe that Côte d'Ivoire will make use of concessionaland semi-concessional lending in order to fund its plans.Côte d'Ivoire's current account deficit will enjoy a recovery from2017 onwards following its sharp deterioration in 2016. This will bedriven by a recovery in its key commodity exports of cocoa and oil,albeit weighed down by falling tourism receipts and high growth incapital imports.The Banque Centrale des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest will holdrates firm over the next 18 months as the West African franc's pegto the euro and benign external pressure keep price growth low. Thestable environment will encourage ongoing investment into the eightcountries of the Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine.Policy formation in Côte d'Ivoire will slow in President AlassaneOuattara's second term as attentions turn to who will succeed himin 2020. The risk of conflict will rise as the elections near, and thecountry scores lower on our long-term political risk scores than onthe short-term.

Table Of Contents

Cote d’Ivoire Country Risk Report Q4 2016
Executive Summary. 5
Core Views5
Key Risks..5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis.. 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook. 8
Sub-Saharan African Growth Outperformer8
Growth will remain strong in Côte d'Ivoire in 2016, driven by investor interest and abating political risk. It will fall in the years thereafter
due to base effects, Brexit contagion and a renewal in political risk in the run-up to 2020 elections, although it will remain a regional
outperformer.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS.9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS.9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS.10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS..10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook 11
Concessionary Borrowing Will Fund Expansionary Budget..11
Côte d'Ivoire's budget deficit will remain wide in 2016 and 2017 as the government invests in a series of key infrastructure projects,
before beginning to decrease from 2018 onwards. With the eurobond issuance looking less likely, Côte d'Ivoire will make use of
concessional and semi-concessional lending in order to fund its plans.
Structural Fiscal Position. 12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES..13
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS..13
External Trade And Investment Outlook. 14
Current Account Will Improve From 2017..14
Côte d'Ivoire's current account deficit will enjoy a recovery from 2017 onwards following its sharp deterioration in 2016. This will be
driven by a recovery in its key commodity exports of cocoa and oil, albeit weighed down by falling tourism receipts and high growth in
capital imports.
Outlook On External Position. 16
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT16
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS 17
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014.. 17
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 201418
Monetary Policy.. 18
Stable Monetary Policy Will Encourage Investment18
The Banque Centrale des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest will hold rates firm over the next 18 months as the West African franc's peg to
the euro and benign external pressure keep price growth low. The stable environment will encourage ongoing investment into the eight
countries of the Union Economique et Monetaire Ouest Africaine.
Monetary Policy Framework 19
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS.20
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast. 21
The Ivorian Economy To 2025 21
A Bright Decade Ahead, But Fragilities To Persist..21
While growth over the next 10 years is expected to improve on the last decade, political uncertainty continues to exert a downward pull
on the country's potential. In our view, high poverty levels and a frail business environment will represent the main obstacles to growth
over the longer term.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS.21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook. 23
SWOT Analysis 23
BMI Political Risk Index. 23
Domestic Politics.. 24
Policy Formation Will Slow In Ouattara's Second Term24
Policy formation in Côte d'Ivoire will slow in President Alassane Ouattara's second term as attentions turn to who will succeed him in
2020. The risk of conflict will rise as the elections near, and the country scores lower on our long-term political risk scores than on the
short-term.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW..24
Long-Term Political Outlook.. 25
Post-Conflict Challenges To Linger25
While the establishment of a cohesive national government has set the stage for an impressive economic recovery in Côte d'Ivoire, the
country's political system remains brittle and ethnic tensions are easily inflamed. In our core scenario, Alassane Ouattara's government
will be only partially successful in addressing the country's political, security, and social challenges and that tensions will remain high
over the coming years. A more stable outcome is possible, though highly unlikely, while we ascribe a 10-20% probability to a repeat of
the 2010-2011 political crisis between now and 2020.
Chapter 4: Operational Risk. 29
SWOT Analysis 29
Operational Risk Index.. 29
Operational Risk. 30
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK30
Market Size And Utilities 31
TABLE: SSA - MARKET SIZE AND UTILITIES RISK32
Labour Costs 35
TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE.. 35
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 39
Global Macro Outlook. 39
Brexit Risk Casts A Long Shadow..39
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS..39
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %40
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %..41
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS.43

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