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Finland Country Risk Report Q4 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 23 pages

Core Views

Finland's economy looks set to remain on a sluggish growth trajectoryin the years ahead.The country will lag behind both eurozone and Scandinavian peersin real GDP terms, as reforms aimed at tackling structural economicissues dampen short-term growth.These same reforms, which aim to boost labour market flexibilityand cost competitiveness, will also be insufficient alone to boostlong-term growth.Finland will struggle to recover robustly from the decline of the paper,telecoms and shipbuilding industries.Economic problems will weigh on support for the coalition government,implying that coalition unity will be hard to maintain.Major Forecast ChangesNo major forecast changes this quarter.

Table Of Contents

Finland Country Risk Report Q4 2016
Executive Summary. 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes..5
Key Risks..5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis.. 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook. 8
Years Of Sluggish Growth Lie Ahead..8
Finland is set for years of economic stagnation and will be one of the worst-performing eurozone economies in growth terms. Structural
reforms being implemented by the government will be insufficient to offset the decline of key industries, an uncompetitive export base
and labour market rigidities.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS..10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS..10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS.10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS..10
Chapter 3: Political Outlook. 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Political Risk Index. 13
Domestic Politics.. 14
Economy, Reforms To Dampen Government Unity.14
The Finnish government will struggle to retain popular support in 2016 and 2017, as the country's economic malaise continues. Any
potential benefits of structural reforms aimed at tackling its uncompetitive labour force and large budget deficit are unlikely to materialise
early enough improve this outlook.
TABLE: BMI POLITICS TABLE..14
Long-Term Political Outlook.. 16
Economic Woes Pose Significant Political Challenges.16
Broad and stable coalition governments will maintain policy continuity in Finland over the next decade while protecting individual
freedoms. Nevertheless, a structural economic malaise could see social tensions rise in line with unemployment, while relations with
neighbouring Russia could deteriorate further.
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 19
Global Macro Outlook. 19
Brexit Risk Casts A Long Shadow..19
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS..19
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %20
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %..21
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS.23

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