1. Market Research
  2. > Energy & Environment
  3. > Energy
  4. > Oil and Gas Energy Market Trends
  5. > Namibia Country Risk Report Q4 2016

Namibia Country Risk Report Q4 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 43 pages

Core Views

Namibia's economic growth outlook over the next 10 years will beunderpinned by key sectors such as manufacturing, tourism andconstruction, which will be supported by the government. We notethat utility shortages will continue to weigh on business operations,especially in the mining industry.Fiscal revenues will remain under strain over the next three yearsowing to subdued trade receipts. This will prompt a modest cutbackin government expenditure over the same period, but this will onlygradually ease the country's sizable fiscal deficits in the years ahead.The Bank of Namibia (BoN) will continue hiking the repo rate in themonths ahead in a bid to combat elevated food and utilities pricegrowth, and keep its monetary policy trajectory aligned with theSouth African Reserve Bank. The BoN will hit the top of its hikingcycle by end-2016, and keep the benchmark policy rate on hold at7.50% through 2017 as inflation begins to cool.Namibia's current account deficit will widen to 13.0% of GDP in2016 due to deterioration in the trade balance. From 2017 onwards,external dynamics will improve, driven by foreign direct investmentand a recovery in prices of the country's mined commodities.The Namibian government's inefficient allocation of public fundsduring a period when the country is struggling against inadequatehousing, water, and employment provision will add to the growingtensions between elements of the population and the government.However, with one of the most stable histories in Sub-Saharan Africa,we do not believe this will escalate to the point where social unrestweighs on the economy.Major Forecast ChangesWe have revised real GDP growth for 2015 from 3.9% to 5.7% afterlatest data was released. As a result, we have made minor adjustmentsto real GDP forecasts over the next 10 years.

Table Of Contents

Namibia Country Risk Report Q4 2016
Executive Summary. 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes..5
Key Risks..5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis.. 7
BMI Economic Risk Index 7
Economic Growth Outlook. 8
Key Sectors Driving
Positive Growth Outlook..8
Namibia is poised for strong economic growth over the next decade, supported by expanding manufacturing, tourism and construction
sector activity. Faltering diamond output and electricity shortages will temper mining sector activity in the next few years. However,
towards the latter part of our 10-year forecast period, rising uranium production will see the mining sector begin to regain traction, further
bolstering the Namibian economy.
TABLE: MANUFACTURING FORECASTS.8
TABLE: CONSTRUCTION FORECASTS8
TABLE: TOURISM FORECASTS.9
TABLE: MINING FORECASTS.9
GDP By Expenditure Outlook. 10
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS..10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS..11
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS11
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS.11
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS..11
Fiscal Policy And
Public Debt Outlook. 12
Modest Consolidation
Will Narrow Fiscal Deficit Gradually..12
Fiscal revenues will remain under strain over the next three years owing to subdued trade receipts. This will prompt a modest cutback in
government expenditure over the same period, but this will only gradually ease the country's sizable fiscal deficits in the years ahead.
Structural Fiscal Position. 13
MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES13
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS..14
External Trade And
Investment Outlook.. 15
Current Account Deficit Will Gradually Narrow As Terms Of Trade Improve.15
Namibia's current account deficit will widen to 13.0% of GDP in 2016 due to deterioration in the trade balance. From 2017 onwards,
external dynamics will improve, driven by foreign direct investment and a recovery in prices of the country's mined commodities.
Outlook On External Position. 16
TABLE: CAPITAL and FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE.. 16
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS 16
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2015.. 17
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2015 17
Monetary Policy.. 18
Elevated Inflation Will
Prompt Further Hikes In H21618
The Bank of Namibia (BoN) will continue hiking the repo rate in the months ahead in a bid to combat elevated inflation and keep its
monetary policy trajectory aligned with the South African Reserve Bank. Thereafter, the bank will keep the benchmark policy rate on
hold at 7.50% through out 2017 as inflation begins to cool.
Monetary Policy Framework 20
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS. 20
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast. 21
The Namibian Economy To 2025. 21
Resource Powered Growth.21
Thanks to the country's strong primary sector, we expect growth to prove relatively robust in th e long run, averaging around 5.0
%annually from 2016 to 2025. With a stable political environment, the main risks are the limited size of the domestic market, rising income
inequality and depressed global demand for the country's primary export - diamonds.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS. 21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook. 23
SWOT Analysis 23
BMI Political Risk Index. 23
Domestic Politics.. 24
Tensions To Increase In
Response To Government Failures24
The Namibian government's inefficient allocation of public funds during a period when the country is struggling against inadequate
housing, water, and employment provision will add to the growing tensions between elements of the population and the government.
However, with one of the most stable histories in Sub-Saharan Africa, we do not believe this will escalate to the point where social
unrest weighs on the economy.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW . 24
Long-Term Political Outlook.. 25
Stability Likely To
Prevail Over The Coming Decade25
While Namibia's enormous income inequality poses some risks to political stability, we believe the population is likely to continue
supporting the South West Africa People's Organization (SWAPO) government for the next 10 years, ensuring broad political stability
and continuity.
Chapter 4: Operational Risk. 29
SWOT Analysis 29
Operational Risk Index.. 29
Operational Risk 30
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK30
Market Size And Utilities 31
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - MARKET SIZE AND UTILITIES RISK 32
Labour Costs 34
TABLE: NAMIBIA LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE .. 35
Chapter 5:BMI Global Macro Outlook. 39
Global Macro Outlook. 39
Brexit Risk Casts A Long Shadow..39
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS..39
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %40
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %..41
MACROECONOMIC FORECAST.43
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS.43

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Ahmad

+1 718 618 4302

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 12000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“Rise in crude oil production worldwide drives the COFI market” The global market size of COFI is estimated to reach USD 1.73 billion by 2021 from 1.32 billion in 2016, at a CAGR of 5.5%. Excessive ...

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

  • $ 7000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Transparency Market Research

The filter bags market report provides an in-depth analysis of the global filter bag market for the period 2014 – 2024, wherein 2015 is the base year and the years from 2016 to 2024 is the forecast period. ...


ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.