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Senegal & Gambia Country Risk Report Q4 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 47 pages

Core Views

Real GDP growth in The Gambia will remain fairly weak in 2016,coming in at 3.2%, according to our forecasts, broadly flat comparedwith 2015's estimated 3.3% expansion. Growth will be constrained bythe effects of a border dispute with neighbouring Senegal on trade,and the residual effects of the West African Ebola crisis on tourism.We project that growth will accelerate to 4.9% in 2017, driven bya pickup in visitor numbers and in part by the disbursement of aidpromised by the EU in a bid to slow the flood of migrants from TheGambia crossing the Mediterranean. However, the unpredictabilityof President Yahya Jammeh, whose autocratic style of governmentrisks further alienating investors and donors, and the Brexit scenario,which would hold back the recovery in tourism, are two major risksto our expectation for stronger 2017 growth.President Jammeh will remain in power in The Gambia throughDecember's presidential elections and beyond, despite the countryhaving recently seen the largest opposition protests since 2000.The recent political unrest will not escalate to the degree that majorconcessions are made by President Jammeh, let alone that he willstep down from power.Agriculture will remain the dominant industry in The Gambia, thoughinvestment into other sectors such as tourism will help to drive realGDP growth.The country will remain reliant on foreign grants in order to meetits fiscal obligations, although these are under threat given politicaldevelopments. The Gambia is looking increasingly to Arab Gulfstates for funding.

Core Views

Senegal continues to make great strides in boosting its economic development, and we expect that the 6.5% real GDP growth achieved in 2015 – which represented the strongest growth rate in 12 years – will be exceeded in 2016, when we project an expansion of 6.7%. In 2017 we forecast a further acceleration to 7.2%. This growth will not be fuelled by a resource boom with a sudden ramp-up in investment into any particular extractive industry or massive increase in exports – although offshore oil development will play its part. Rather, the growth will be driven by public and private investment into infrastructure projects, greater agricultural production and an improved business environment encouraging an increase in private sector activity. President Macky Sall's victory in the Senegalese constitutional referendum held in March paves the way for his second presidential term. We believe that the result is a good indicator of general support for the president, and that a second term will be a positive for policy continuity and economic growth. Inflationary pressure will be benign, in part thanks to the XOF franc's peg to the euro.

Table Of Contents

Senegal and Gambia Country Risk Report Q4 2016
Brief Methodology 5
BMI Index - The Gambia..6
BMI Index - Senegal7
BMI Index League Tables9
Executive Summary - The Gambia..11
Core Views.11
Key Risks11
Chapter 1.1: Economic Outlook - The Gambia 13
SWOT Analysis 13
Economic Growth Outlook.. 14
Growth Will Strengthen In 201714
Real GDP growth in the Gambia will remain weak in 2016 before rising in 2017 on the back of greater visitor numbers and donor
funds. However, both of these positives are subject to sizeable risk from the Brexit scenario and the actions of President Yahya
Jammeh.
Chapter 1.2: 10-Year Forecast - The Gambia 17
The Gambian Economy To 2025.. 17
Robust Growth Outlook Susceptible To External Shocks..17
Real GDP growth in Gambia will be robust over the coming 10 years, hovering around 5.0% per annum. This will be driven by growth in
the agriculture and tourism industries, though growth will be constrained by poor infrastructure. As a small, open economy, the country
is also susceptible to external shocks, whether from weather events or global economic headwinds.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS.17
Chapter 1.3: Political Outlook - The Gambia. 21
SWOT Analysis 21
Domestic Politics.. 22
Protests Will Not Stop Jammeh Electoral Victory.22
President Yahya Jammeh will remain in power in the Gambia through the December presidential elections and beyond, despite the
country having recently seen the largest opposition protests since 2000. The recent political unrest will not escalate to the degree that
major concessions are made by President Jammeh, let alone that he will step down from power.
Long-Term Political Outlook.. 23
President Jammeh To Shape Next Decade23
The Gambia's political landscape will continue to be shaped by President Yahya Jammeh over the next decade, as political and press
freedoms will continue to be reduced. A change in government will only come about through either a military coup or revolution. 23
Chapter 1.4: Operational Risk - The Gambia 25
SWOT Analysis 25
Executive Summary - Senegal27
Core Views.27
Key Risks27
Chapter 2.1: Economic Outlook - Senegal. 29
SWOT Analysis 29
Economic Growth Outlook.. 30
Strongest Growth In Decades Ahead30
Senegal will continue to enjoy its strongest growth in more than a decade in the coming years. This will be driven by investment
into major projects and an improving business environment that will encourage private enterprise. Both of these are underpinned by
President Macky Sall's development plan, the Plan Émergent Senegal.
Chapter 2.2: 10-Year Forecast - Senegal. 33
The Senegalese Economy To 2025. 33
Growth To Outpace Previous Decade..33
Senegal will enjoy strong real GDP growth over the next decade, averaging 6.5% annually, an improvement on the 3.8% recorded
over the previous 10 years. Growth will be driven by private consumption, though the country's poor infrastructure will impede
development.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS.33
Chapter 2.3: Political Outlook - Senegal. 37
SWOT Analysis 37
Domestic Politics.. 38
Referendum Victory Paves Way for Second Sall Term.38
President Macky Sall's victory in the Senegalese constitutional referendum held in March paves the way for his second presidential
term. We believe that the result is a good indicator of general support for the president, and that a second term will be positive for policy
continuity and economic growth.
Long-Term Political Outlook.. 39
Bastion Of Regional Stability To Flourish Politically..39
Senegal will continue to develop politically over the next decade, cementing its reputation as one of the most stable democracies in
Africa. There are challenges to this stability, not least from poverty and unemployment, but we believe that accelerating economic
development will help Senegal overcome these.
Chapter 2.4: Operational Risk - Senegal. 41
SWOT Analysis 41
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook 43
Global Macro Outlook. 43
Brexit Risk Casts A Long Shadow..43
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS..43
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %44
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %..45
TABLE: THE GAMBIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS..47
TABLE: SENEGAL - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS.47

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