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Strategic Overview of the Passenger Vehicle Market in Iran

  • July 2015
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 48 pages

Segment-A Emerges and Total Sales Top 2.0 Million by 2022

The aim of this study is to analyze developments in the Iranian passenger vehicle (PV) market in light of the impact of the Iranian Nuclear Agreement that will remove economic sanctions imposed on the country. The analysis highlights business opportunities and challenges across the Iranian PV market and provides a strategic overview of key market participants, opportunities, challenges, import duty structure, and forecasts. In addition, the research captures scenarios involving the economic sanctions easing, the resulting impact on the automotive industry, and expected changes in the regulatory framework that would affect the Iranian automotive industry. The study period runs 2014 (base year) to 2022.

Key Findings
Iran offers great opportunity to carmakers and parts manufacturers, but the status quo has changed over the past 4–5 years with Iranian OEMs empowered by high levels of localization.
Passenger Vehicle (PV) Market: Executive Summary, Iran, 2015
1 A nuclear agreement finalized in 2015 will make Iran a 2.4 million unit automotive market by 2022, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of % (2014–2022).
2 By 2022, B segment vehicles with % market share will be the most preferred segment followed by C segment vehicles at %.
3 Chinese automotive OEMs’ market share is expected to rise to % by 2022 from % in 2014 as they gain a foothold by swiftly filling the void left by the European OEMs.
4 It is estimated that the time from lifting of sanctions to regaining business normalcy could take about 6 months, while the automotive industry will take months to regain momentum.
5 Localisation of the Iranian automotive supply chain in the past years has become high but at the cost of reliability and quality. International suppliers, technology, and finance are the need of the hour.
6 European and Japanese automotive OEMs such as Renault and Mazda in the short term (up to 4 years) will import completely knocked down (CKDs) and semi-knocked down (SKDs) kits in the mid segment and completely built units (CBUs) in the premium segment to gain presence in Iran.
7 Iranian regulations are expected to mandate the need for greater localisation among OEMs in the production stages by 2016 to boost the local economy and help increase employment.
8 The top new vehicle purchase parameters are price and quality for the urban middle class (average annual income of $ ).

Table Of Contents

Strategic Overview of the Passenger Vehicle Market in Iran
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive Summary
Key Findings
Country Profile
Political and Economic Landscape
SWOT Analysis of Iranian Automotive Industry
Iran's Automotive Industry—2014 Outlook
2. RESEARCH SCOPE AND SEGMENTATION

Research Scope and Segmentation
Research Scope
Research Aims and Objectives
Vehicle Segmentation
3. IRAN'S AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

Iran's Automotive Industry Analysis
Iran's Automotive Industry 2015
Emission Regulations
Free Trade Zones
Top Selling Models
Iran's Automotive Industry 2014—Chinese Invasion
4. FORECAST, SALES, AND SEGMENTS

Forecast, Sales, and Segments
Passenger Vehicle Sales Forecast
Passenger Vehicle Segment Analysis
Passenger Vehicle Segment Analysis (continued)
5. IMPORT DUTIES AND PROCEDURE ON AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

Import Duties and Procedure on Automotive Industry
Customs' Duty Slabs on Automotive Imports
Customs' Duty Slabs on Automotive Parts
Customs' Import Procedure for Foreign OEMs and Suppliers
6. IRANIAN AUTOMOTIVE OEM ANALYSIS

Iranian Automotive OEM Analysis
OEM Distribution Network
OEM Competitive Analysis
Exhibit 1: Iran—Khodro Company (IKCO)
IKCO Product Range
Exhibit 2: Societe Anonyme Iranienne de Production Automobile-SAIPA
SAIPA Product Line
7. IMPACT OF P5+1 NUCLEAR AGREEMENT ON IRANIAN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

Impact of P5+1 Nuclear Agreement on Iranian Automotive Industry
Impact of P5+1-Iran Nuclear Agreement
Scenarios of the P5+1-Iran Nuclear Agreement
Partnership and Market Composition Explained
Supply Chain and Import Trade Explained
Route to Market and Key Focus Explained
Iranian Regulatory Framework
Opportunities in Iran
8. CONCLUSIONS

Conclusions
Conclusions
The Last Word—3 Big Predictions
Legal Disclaimer
9. APPENDIX

Appendix
List of Acronyms/Abbreviations
Market Engineering Methodology

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