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UHDTV - HTS and LEO constellations - Inflight Connectivity

The space industry seems confident in the future of the sector, especially according to manufacturers' forecasts, which show that about 20 telecommunications satellite orders per year are anticipated until 2020.

This study aims to analyse the growth potential of three market segments that seem particularly promising sources of innovation and growth: UHDTV, inflight broadband Internet connectivity and inflight mobile communications.
For each of these market segments, the report seeks an understanding of what trade-offs exist in terms of range of services, player strategies, business models and technology solutions.
The expected impact of these market segments on the space industry is also evaluated and illustrated as market forecasts for 2020.

This study aims to answer the following questions in particular:

- Will Ultra HD drive the future of satellite TV broadcasting?
- Will LEO constellation projects bear fruit and will they revolutionise the broadband satellite market?
- Does the inflight connectivity market represent a real growth driver for satellite or is it to suffer from competition from terrestrial solutions, particularly LTE?

Table Of Contents

Satellite’s Growth Engines - UHDTV - HTS and LEO constellations - Inflight Connectivity
Contents
1 Executive Summary 8
11 Ultra HD, a new growth driver for satellite TV broadcasting 8
12 Satellite broadband Internet benefiting from HTS technology and challenged by LEO constellations
projects 10
13 Rapid development of the inflight connectivity market 13
2 Methodology and definitions 15
21 General methodology of IDATE's reports 15
22 Methodology specific to this report and forecasting methodology 16
221 Note regarding the methodology for forecasting the satellite broadband market 16
222 Note regarding the methodology for forecasting the inflight connectivity market 16
223 Note regarding the methodology for forecasting the Ultra HD TV market 16
3 Ultra HD, breathing new life into the satellite TV broadcast market 17
31 Developments in TV technologies 17
311 UHD and related technologies 17
312 Quantum Dot (QDots) technology 21
313 OLED technology 21
314 TVs, primary driver of market growth in a diverse technological context 23
315 UHD, a growth driver for the TV set market 25
32 Player strategies 29
321 Audiovisual industry more confident about the future of UHD 29
322 OTT video services are driving the 4K content distribution market, especially on TVs 30
323 Manufacturers looking to partner with content producers and video service publishers to promote their UHD
TVs 32
324 Could 4K Blu-ray help push UHD for the movie industry? 32
325 First announcements of UHD channels from secondary players 32
326 Major FTA players continuing tests but not considering commercial launch before moving to 8K? 33
327 Distributors also actively testing 33
328 Signs that the market is structuring around players that complement each other 36
33 Satellite positioned well for distributing UHD 37
331 Satellite networks provide high quality distribution of video content 37
332 Growth drivers and barriers to UHD development 38
333 Ultra HD, a growth driver for satellite operators: market forecasts for 2020 39
4 New market opportunities for satellite broadband access services 42
41 Broadband Internet benefiting from HTS technology 43
411 The new generation of HTS satellite systems 44
412 North America the primary market driver, but Europe taking off 46
413 Good market potential, but challenges remain 47
42 Will LEO constellations disrupt the sector? 54
421 Projects designed to complement global Internet coverage 54
422 Considerable challenges for these new constellations 57
43 Growth of satellite broadband: Market forecasts for 2020 60
Satellite's Growth Engines: UHDTV - HTS and LEO constellations - Inflight Connectivity

5 The flourishing market of inflight mobile communications 61
51 State of the market: services and business models 61
511 Rapid growth of services 61
512 Slower uptake of new usages 62
513 Differentiated business practices and models 62
52 Player strategies and technology choices 64
521 Satellite, the traditional technology 64
522 The use of terrestrial technologies: Air-to-ground and LTE 66
523 What about hybrid satellite and LTE solutions? 73
53 The growing market of inflight connectivity: Market forecasts for 2020 75


Tables and Figures

Table 1: The three main LEO constellation projects 12
Table 2: UHD TV sales, 2015-2019 27
Table 3: Satellite compatibility with UHD using HEVC (36 MHz equivalent transponder) 37
Table 4: Positioning comparison between different broadcast networks 38
Table 5: Advances in satellite broadband technology 48
Table 6: Broadband coverage by speed in a selection of European countries, 2013 50
Table 7: Features of Verizon's LTE fixed access plans 51
Table 8: Features of Vodafone Germany's LTE fixed access plans 51
Table 9: Key triple play marketing practices on satellite 52
Table 10: The three main LEO constellation projects 54
Table 11: Comparison of inflight connectivity offerings from various airline companies 63

Figure 1: UHD TV penetration rates 9
Figure 2: Number of transponders used for broadcasting UHD TV services and UHD market valuation, in Europe
and the United States, 2014-2020 10
Figure 3: Capacity of various Ka-band satellites 11
Figure 4: Forecasts for satellite broadband subscribers in Europe and the United States, 2014-2018 13
Figure 5: Number of broadband-connected commercial airlines, 2014-2020 14
Figure 6: Resolution comparison for different generations 18
Figure 7: UHD TV deployment phases 19
Figure 8: Calendar for adoption of the HEVC codec 20
Figure 9: Future TV technology roadmap 22
Figure 10: TV sales by region, 2015-2019 26
Figure 11: Connectable and non-connectable TVs sold worldwide 26
Figure 12: Share of connectable and non-connectable TVs sold worldwide, by region, 2015 27
Figure 13: Distribution of Ultra HD TV sales worldwide by geographical region in 2019 28
Figure 14: UHD TV installed base 28
Figure 15: UHD TV penetration rates 29
Figure 16: The impact of HDR on perceived image quality 30
Figure 17: DishTV's new 4K Joey STB 34
Figure 18: Number of UHD channels broadcast by satellite in Europe and the United States, 2014-2020 40
Figure 19: Number of transponders used for broadcasting UHDTV services and UHD market valuation, Europe and
the United States, 2014-2020 40
Figure 20: Triple play satellite architecture 42
Figure 21: Capacity of various Ka-band satellites 43
Figure 22: Coverage of the Epic platform 45
Figure 23: Satellite broadband offered by Viasat: WildBlue subscriptions in Texas 46
Figure 24: Tooway satellite broadband subscription plans 47
Figure 25: Hourly download speed performance as % of theoretical speed advertised by ISPs, September 2013 48
Figure 26: Broadband coverage in Europe (EU28) by technology, 2012 and 2013 49
Figure 27: Broadband coverage in Europe (EU28) by technology in rural areas, 2012 and 2013 50
Figure 28: Residential LTE vs satellite price positioning in Germany, August 2014 53
Figure 29: SES's installation Guide for the 'Point and Play' modem 53
Figure 30: Illustration of the LeoSat constellation 55
Figure 31: Illustration of a OneWeb satellite 56
Figure 32: OneWeb's user terminal 56

Figure 33: Satellite broadband subscribers' forecasts, in North America and in Europe, 2014-2018 60
Figure 34: Satellite and latency 64
Figure 35: Gimballed antenna vs phased array antenna 65
Figure 36: Difference between wide and spot beams 65
Figure 37: Coverage of Gogo's ATG network 67
Figure 38: Summary of the ATG proposal made by Qualcomm 68
Figure 39: Bands identified by Alcatel-Lucent in 2012 69
Figure 40: Solution tested by Deutsche Telekom with Airbus and Alcatel-Lucent 71
Figure 41: Prototype of an LTE antenna mounted on the aircraft and used for the trial flight 71
Figure 42: Arguments put forward by Deutsche Telekom for LTE 72
Figure 43: Huawei's eWBB solution 72
Figure 44: Evolution of technologies used by Gogo and proposed connectivity performance 73
Figure 45: Frequency, speeds and coverage of Gogo's ATG4 technology 74
Figure 46: 2Ku system with two antennas 74
Figure 47: Number of broadband-connected commercial airlines, 2014-2020 75

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