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Markets at December 2015 & Forecasts to 2020

Markets - Players - Technologies - CapEx - Pricing

The bundle World LTE markets – 5G initiatives & MBB spectrum includes two deliverables dealing with both LTE and spectrum issues:

1. A database (updated half-yearly): quantitative & qualitative data for 46 countries, 6 zones & world consolidated - 76 LTE operator sheets are also available. It gathers information about spectrum issues, technologies, revenue & subscriber data & forecasts up to 2020. It presents the current status of the main mobile broadband frequency bands and results of auction processes including allocation modes, prices paid by each licensee, quantity of spectrum acquired by player, technology, price paid per MHz per PoP for 10 years and detailed information on the regulatory status.

2. A report (updated half-yearly) providing you with the state-of-the-art regarding LTE: overview of dynamics in LTE markets up to 2020 by geographical area and by technology. It also provides you with analyses of the worldwide LTE market status, LTE pricing, new services, technological issues, recent pieces of news on spectrum allocations, spectrum prices comparison, roaming, chipsets and devices.
With regards to spectrum, latest developments in the field are highlighted. Information include the main evolutions of the regulatory framework, spectrum sharing issues and new radio technologies, 5G developments, mobile spectrum in Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia Pacific, North and South America, and Africa Middle East, and spectrum valuation.

Database trackers
Operators
- Technology: LTE FDD, TD-LTE, LTE-Advanced, Mobile WiMAX, and version (such as MIMO 4×2)
- Deployment: description of coverage plans or obligation
- Spectrum: quantity, frequency band, type (FDD, TDD)
- Technical Data and main vendors: core network providers (+IMS), Radio Access Network (RAN) providers, maximum data rates (UL/DL), average data rates (UL/DL), devices
- Outsourcing and sharing contracts
- Capex
- Services and tariffs: data package issues (such as monthly volume, associated data rates and restrictions), data M2M, voice
- Subscribers and ARPU (historical data)

Countries
- Background information: operators, LTE framework
- Regulation: spectrum auctions, refarming

Type of data
- Historical data 2010-2014
- Estimates for 2015
- Forecasts 2016-2020

Geographical coverage
The global market for telecom services has been divided into five main zones: Europe, North America, Latin America, Asia-Pacific and Middle East and Africa.
The countries below are detailed within each zone.

Asia-Pacific
- Australia*
- China*
- Hong Kong*
- India*
- Indonesia
- Japan*
- Malaysia
- New Zealand
- Philippines
- Singapore
- South Korea*
- Taiwan
- Uzbekistan
- Vietnam
- Rest of AP

Western Europe
- Austria
- Belgium*
- Denmark*
- Finland*
- France*
- Germany*
- Greece
- Ireland
- Italy*
- Luxembourg
- Netherlands*
- Norway*
- Portugal*
- Spain*
- Sweden*
- Switzerland*
- UK*
- Rest of WE

Central & Eastern Europe
- Czech Republic
- Hungary
- Poland
- Russia*
- Turkey*
- Rest of CEE

Latin America
- Argentina
- Brazil*
- Chile*
- Mexico
- Rest of Latam

North America
- Canada*
- USA*

Middle East-Africa
- Bahrain
- Morocco
- Saudi Arabia
- UAE
- Rest of MEA

*Country sheet for spectrum available

Table Of Contents

World LTE markets - data and forecasts up to 2020
1. Executive summary
Key Trends

2. Methodology
2.1. List of indicators by operator and country
2.2. Methodology

3. World LTE market
3.1. Main LTE markets
3.2. Main LTE markets (December 2015 figures)
3.3. LTE worldwide market: Top Ten countries
3.4. LTE worldwide market
3.5. LTE deployment roadmap: No more European players in the top 10
3.6. Outdoor LTE coverage
3.7. LTE coverage
3.8. LTE speeds
3.9. LTE capex picked up in 2014-2015, efforts focused on last hard-to-reach % of outdoor coverage and started to consider indoor coverage
3.10. LTE capex - Focus on NTT DOCOMO Xi/LTE capex and coverage
3.11. LTE capex - Focus on China Mobile LTE capex and coverage
3.12. LTE subscription forecasts by region
3.13. LTE revenues forecasts by region
3.14. LTE revenues forecasts by region

4. LTE Market in Europe
4.1. LTE European market
4.2. European market - Main trends
4.3. LTE subscription forecasts in Western Europe
4.4. LTE subscription forecasts in Central and Eastern Europe

5. LTE Market in the Americas
5.1. LTE American market
5.2. American market - Main trends
5.3. LTE subscription forecasts in North America
5.4. LTE subscription forecasts in Latin America

6. LTE Market in Asia-Pacific
6.1. LTE market in Asia-Pacific
6.2. Asian-Pacific market - Main trends
6.3. LTE subscription forecasts in Asia-Pacific

7. LTE Market in Middle East and Africa
7.1. LTE Middle East and African market
7.2. Middle East and African market - Main trends
7.3. LTE subscription forecasts in Middle East and Africa

8. LTE spectrum
8.1. Main radio spectrum "trends" - 2014-2015
8.2. Outcomes from WRC-15: 700 MHz globally allocated for IMT in Region 1
8.3. Main LTE frequency bands: FDD and TDD
8.4. The 700 MHz band
8.5. 4G licences/spectrum price: 600, 800 MHz, 900 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2.1 GHz, AWS, PCS
8.6. 4G licences/spectrum price in 700 MHz frequencies
8.7. 4G spectrum in 700 MHz frequencies
8.8. The 600 MHz broadcast spectrum auction in the USA
8.9. 4G licences/spectrum price: 1800 MHz band
8.10. 4G licences/spectrum price: higher frequency bands

9. Technology update: LTE-Advanced, VoLTE and 5G
9.1. Carrier aggregation usage continues to grow throughout the world
9.2. 2x20 MHz carrier aggregation widely adopted. 3 and 4 CA on the starting block
9.3. The upcoming of LTE-Advanced Pro /4.5G
9.4. After repeated delays, Voice over LTE momentum is building
9.5. VoLTE deployments and launches around the world are accelerating
9.6. TD-LTE is still a nascent but growing system
9.7. Defining 5G performance requirements before standardizing
9.8. Work around 5G has already begun
9.9. It is a long road to 5G: research has started

10. LTE pricing
10.1. LTE pricing - LTE pricing strategies: tiered pricing versus unlimited
10.2. LTE pricing - Volume-based tiered pricing, the most common strategy
10.3. LTE pricing: players continue to look for ways to monetize data

Figures

1. Executive summary
Figure 1: Share of LTE subscriptions (Q4 2014- Q4 2015)
Figure 2: LTE subscription estimates and forecasts (2013-2020)

3. World LTE market
Figure 3: Share of LTE subscriptions in three lead countries (2011-2020)
Figure 4: LTE subscription by region (Q4 2014 - Q4 2015)
Figure 5: Breakdown of mobile customers by country and technology, end-2015
Figure 6: 3G and 4G average download speed in the UK (Q4 2014)
Figure 7: Domestic wireless capex (2011-2015)
Figure 8: Domestic LTE capex (2011-2016 budget)
Figure 9: NTT DOCOMO quarterly LTE capex (June 2012-Dec. 2015)
Figure 10: Number of premium 4G base stations and LTE coverage
Figure 11: Domestic wireless capex and coverage
Figure 12: LTE capex and LTE coverage
Figure 13: Number of 4G base stations and LTE coverage
Figure 14: LTE subscription estimates and forecasts by region, 2015-2020
Figure 15: Share of total LTE subscriptions by region, 2013-2020
Figure 16: LTE revenue estimates and forecasts, 2015-2020
Figure 17: LTE revenue distribution by region in 2015

4. LTE Market in Europe
Figure 18: LTE subscriptions in Europe
Figure 19: LTE subscription forecasts in Western Europe
Figure 20: LTE subscription forecasts in Central and Eastern Europe

5. LTE Market in the Americas
Figure 21: LTE subscriptions in the Americas
Figure 22: LTE subscription forecasts in North America
Figure 23: LTE subscription forecasts in Latin America

6. LTE Market in Asia-Pacific
Figure 24: LTE subscriptions in Asia-Pacific
Figure 25: LTE subscription forecast in Asia-Pacific

7. LTE Market in Middle East and Africa
Figure 26: LTE subscriptions in Middle East and Africa
Figure 27: LTE subscription forecast in Middle East and Africa

8. LTE spectrum
Figure 28: The APT band plan
Figure 29: Price of premium licences/spectrum (eurocents) per MHz per pop. (for 10 years)
Figure 30: Price of 700 MHz licences/spectrum (eurocents) per MHz per pop. (for 10 years)
Figure 31: Price of 1800 MHz licences/spectrum (eurocents) per MHz per pop. (for 10 years)
Figure 32: Price of 2.6 GHz licences/spectrum (eurocents) per MHz per pop. (for 10 years)

9. Technology update: LTE-Advanced, VoLTE and 5G
Figure 33: A la carte deployment should enable quicker deployment of Rel 13 than initially expected in this roadmap from 2014
Figure 34: Number of TD-LTE network launched by frequency bands
Figure 35: Number of TD-LTE devices by form factor
Figure 36: Performance objectives for 5G and associated use cases
Figure 37: 5G roadmap
Figure 38: LTE-U and LWA roadmaps

Tables

3. World LTE market
Table 1: Ranking of countries by number of LTE mobile subscribers and proportion of the total LTE user base, end-2015
Table 2: LTE Worldwide Market : Top Ten countries
Table 3: LTE operators, Q4 2013, Q4 2014 and Q4 2015
Table 4: LTE coverage for the Top Ten countries

4. LTE Market in Europe
Table 5: LTE European market: Top 5 countries, at end 2013, 2014 and 2015

5. LTE Market in the Americas
Table 6: LTE American market: Top 5 countries, at Q4 2015

6. LTE Market in Asia-Pacific
Table 7: LTE Asian-Pacific market: Top 5 countries, at Q4 2015

7. LTE Market in Middle East and Africa
Table 8: LTE Middle East and African market: Top 4 countries at Q4 2015

8. LTE spectrum
Table 9: FDD bands worldwide
Table 10: TDD bands worldwide
Table 11: Status of the 700 MHz band
Table 12: 12 LTE700 #28 services available, according to GSA

9. Technology update: LTE-Advanced, VoLTE and 5G
Table 13: 300 Mbps commercial deployments in 2015-2016
Table 14: 2015-2016 VoLTE deployments
Table 15: WiFi Calling deployments

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