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Revenue in the Western European telecoms market will continue to contract as competitive pressures outweigh the trends towards better-quality products and data-rich bundles. This report examines the impact of these trends in eight countries in Western Europe and the region as a whole.

Table Of Contents

The Western Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts (8 countries) 2015-2020

Table of contents


andnbsp;


8.Executive summary


9.The Western European telecoms market will decline from EUR252 billion in 2014 to EUR231 billion in 2020


10.Traditional telecoms revenue streams will suffer further heavy losses, outweighing growth in the mobile and fixed data markets


11.Fixed and mobile revenue will decline in most countries and regulatory interventions will reduce the revenue boost brought by consolidation


12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets


13.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators


14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison


15.Geographical coverage: Next-generation services will dominate the mobile and fixed broadband markets of Western Europe by 2020


16.Market context: The Western European telecoms market accounts for an average of 1.9% of GDP, with monthly retail spend of EUR42.7 per capita


17.Revenue and ARPU: Telecoms revenue will continue to decline slowly, driven by market maturity and declining ARPU


18.Mobile penetration: Total penetration will not grow in most countries, but significant numbers of users will migrate from prepaid to contract plans


19.Mobile connections: LTE will rapidly become the dominant mobile technology, boosted by the launch of VoLTE services


20.Smartphones and LTE: Smartphones will become the default handset type, with penetration exceeding 100% of population


21.Mobile ARPU: Declining prices and competition from OTT services will cause ARPU to continue to fall during the forecast period


22.Fixed services: The technology mix is evolving rapidly as customers look for faster broadband and operators seek to cut costs


23.Fixed broadband: Growth is a common factor, but varies by country according to the prevailing market characteristics


24.Key drivers at a glance for each Western European market


25.Individual country forecasts


26.France: Market consolidation should bring stability to telecoms revenue


27.France - mobile: More smartphones and LTE in the customer base will offset the impact of converged bundles on ARPU


28.France - fixed: Bundled offers are a key strategy for reducing churn, but broadband ARPU will decline as a result


29.Germany: Total telecoms service revenue will continue to decrease, driven by a decline in mobile and fixed voice revenue


30.Germany - mobile: Quadruple-play offers will put pressure on handset ARPU, and drive users from prepaid to contract deals


31.Germany - fixed: Bundling will reduce broadband ARPU, but the decline will be limited by operators competing on network quality


32.Italy: Telecoms service revenue will continue to decline albeit
at a slower rate than previously


33.Italy - mobile: LTE gained strength in 1Q 2015 and the potential merger of 3 Italia and Wind may ease price competitionandnbsp;


34.Italy - fixed: Pay-TV content agreements and NGA may make the broadband market more dynamic, but penetration will lag behind


35.Spain: Telecoms revenue will decline more slowly than in the past as in-market consolidation, LTE and fibre will ease ARPU pressure


36.Spain - mobile: ARPU will be more resilient as LTE gains momentum and fixed-mobile bundles may reduce churn


37.Spain - fixed: In-market consolidation, fibre deployment and fixed-mobile bundles will make the fixed market very dynamic


38.Sweden: Despite a strong performance in 2014, total revenue
will decline slowly from 2015 as new service growth slows


39.Sweden - mobile: ARPU grew in 2014 because many customers upgraded to contract plans, but this effect will decline from 2015


40.Sweden - fixed: FTTH/B will account for more than half of fixed broadband households, but ASPU will continue to be eroded


41.UK: Total revenue will continue to decline slowly because growth from new services will be undermined by bundling discounts


42.UK - mobile: The pending mergers of BT and EE, and Three and O2, will alter the competitive landscape significantly


43.UK - fixed: Investments in NGA infrastructure will drive take-up of fixed broadband, but bundling will put pressure on ASPU


44.About the authors and Analysys Mason


45.About the authors


46.About Analysys Mason


47.Research from Analysys Mason


48.Consulting from Analysys Mason


List of figures


Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Western Europe, 2014-2020


Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by country, Western Europe


Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Western Europe


Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, Western Europe, 2020


Figure 6: Metrics for eight of the countries modelled individually in Western Europe, 2014


Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014-2020


Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014-2020


Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Western Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2014 and 2020


Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Western Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Western Europe, 2010-2020


Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by country, Western Europe, 2015-2020


Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), France, 2010-2020


Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, France, 2014-2020


Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, France, 2014-2020


Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, France, 2010-2020


Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, France, 2010-2020


Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, France


Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, France, 2010-2020


Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, France, 2010-2020


Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, France


Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Germany, 2010-2020


Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Germany, 2014-2020


Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, Germany, 2014-2020andnbsp;


Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Germany, 2010-2020


Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Germany, 2010-2020


Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Germany


Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Germany, 2010-2020


Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, Germany, 2010-2020


Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Germany


Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Italy, 2010-2020


Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Italy, 2014-2020


Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, Italy, 2014-2020


Figure 38: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Italy, 2010-2020


Figure 39: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Italy, 2010-2020


Figure 40: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Italy


Figure 41: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Italy, 2010-2020


Figure 42: Fixed ASPU by service type, Italy, 2010-2020


Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Italy


Figure 44: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Spain, 2010-2020


Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Spain, 2014-2020andnbsp;


Figure 46: Connections by type, and growth rates, Spain, 2014-2020


Figure 47: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Spain, 2010-2020


Figure 48: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Spain, 2010-2020


Figure 49: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Spain


Figure 50: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Spain, 2010-2020


Figure 51: Fixed ASPU by service type, Spain, 2010-2020


Figure 52: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Spain


Figure 53: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sweden, 2010-2020


Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sweden, 2014-2020


Figure 55: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sweden, 2014-2020


Figure 56: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Sweden, 2010-2020


Figure 57: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Sweden, 2010-2020


Figure 58: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Sweden


Figure 59: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Sweden, 2010-2020


Figure 60: Fixed ASPU by service type, Sweden, 2010-2020


Figure 61: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Sweden


Figure 62: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), UK, 2010-2020


Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, UK, 2014-2020


Figure 64: Connections by type, and growth rates, UK, 2014-2020


Figure 65: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, UK, 2010-2020


Figure 66: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, UK, 2010-2020


Figure 67: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, UK


Figure 68: Fixed penetration rates by service type, UK, 2010-2020


Figure 69: Fixed ASPU by service type, UK, 2010-2020


Figure 70: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, UK

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