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EpiCast Report: Genital Herpes - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023

Summary

Genital herpes is a chronic, sexually transmitted infection caused by the herpes simplex virus (HSV) and is the primary cause of genital ulcers. Genital herpes can also be vertically transmitted from a mother to her newborn during birth, leading to a high risk of mortality in infants. HSV has two forms: HSV-1 and HSV-2. The majority of genital herpes cases globally are caused by HSV-2, although approximately half of all new cases in developed countries are caused by HSV-1. Most cases of genital herpes are asymptomatic, leading to the diagnosed prevalence being substantially lower than that of the total prevalence. The symptomatic cases of genital herpes are typically characterized by painful blisters on the genitals and surrounding areas, which normally present between four and seven days after sexual contact with another infected individual.

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast an increase in the diagnosed incident cases of genital herpes in the 7MM from 405,319 in 2013 to 448,525 diagnosed incident cases in 2023, at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 1.07% during the forecast period. The distribution of diagnosed incident cases of genital herpes in the 7MM was lower in men (153,129 cases, 37.78% in 2013) than it was in women (252,190 cases, 62.22% in 2013). The diagnosed prevalent cases of HSV-1 only genital herpes, HSV-2 only genital herpes, and HSV-1 and HSV-2 co-infection genital herpes increased from 2013 to 2023 in the 7MM, with respective AGRs of 0.53%, 0.71%, and 0.74%. In all the markets, the diagnosed prevalent cases of genital herpes increased with age, which is reflective of the lifetime infection characteristic of the disease.

GlobalData’s epidemiological forecasts for the diagnosed incident cases and diagnosed prevalent cases of genital herpes are supported by age- and sex-specific data obtained from country-specific studies published in peer-reviewed journals, in which the study populations were representative of the general population in the respective markets. The forecast provides the sex-specific diagnosed incident cases of genital herpes in each of the 7MM and the diagnosed prevalent cases of genital herpes segmented by strain type (HSV-1, HSV-2, and the co-infection of HSV-1 and HSV-2), which facilitate an in-depth understanding of the epidemiological trends and informs strategies to improve the management of the disease.

Scope

- The Genital Herpes EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and global trends for genital herpes in the seven major markets (7MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident cases of genital herpes, segmented by strain (HSV-1 and HSV-2) for ages =18 years, and the diagnosed prevalent cases of HSV-1 only genital herpes, HSV-2 only genital herpes, and genital herpes caused by the co-infection of both HSV-1 and HSV-2, segmented by sex for ages =18 years.
- The Genital Herpes epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 7MM.

Reasons to buy

The Genital Herpes EpiCast series will allow you to -
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global genital herpes market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global genital herpes market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the sex and age groups that present the best opportunities for genital herpes therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Table Of Contents

EpiCast Report: Genital Herpes - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023
1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 5
1.2 List of Figures 7
2 Introduction 8
2.1 Catalyst 8
2.2 Related Reports 8
2.3 Upcoming Related Reports 9
3 Epidemiology 10
3.1 Disease Background 10
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 11
3.3 Global Trends 13
3.4 Forecast Methodology 14
3.4.1 Sources Used 15
3.4.2 Sources Not Used 22
3.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 23
3.5 Epidemiological Forecast of Genital Herpes (2013-2023) 34
3.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Genital Herpes 34
3.5.2 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Genital Herpes Segmented by Strain 36
3.5.3 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Genital Herpes Segmented by Sex 37
3.5.4 Number of Persons Diagnosed with HSV-1 Genital Herpes Experiencing Recurrences During the First Year of Diagnosis 39
3.5.5 Number of Persons Diagnosed with HSV-2 Genital Herpes Experiencing Recurrences During the First Year of Diagnosis 40
3.5.6 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HSV-1 Only Genital Herpes 41
3.5.7 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HSV-2 Only Genital Herpes 43
3.5.8 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HSV-1 and HSV-2 Co-infection Genital Herpes 44
3.6 Discussion 46
3.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 46
3.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 47
3.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 48
4 Appendix 49
4.1 Bibliography 49
4.2 About the Authors 53
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 53
4.2.2 Reviewers 53
4.2.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology Director of Epidemiology 54
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 55
4.3 About GlobalData 56
4.4 About EpiCast 56
4.5 Disclaimer 57

1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Genital Herpes 12
Table 2: Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for the Forecast of the Diagnosed Incident Cases of Genital Herpes in the 7MM 15
Table 3: Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for the Forecast of the Total Prevalent Cases of HSV-1 Infections in the 7MM 16
Table 4: Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for the Forecast of the Total Prevalent Cases of HSV-2 Genital Herpes in the 7MM 17
Table 5: Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for the Forecast of the Total Prevalent Cases of HSV-1 and HSV-2 Co-infections in the 7MM 17
Table 6: Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for the Forecast of the Diagnosis Rate of HSV-1 Only Genital Herpes in the 7MM 18
Table 7: Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for the Forecast of the Diagnosis Rate of HSV-2 Only Genital Herpes in the 7MM 18
Table 8: Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for the Forecast of the Diagnosis Rate of HSV-1 and HSV-2 Co-infection Genital Herpes in the 7MM 19
Table 9: 7MM, Sources Not Used in the Epidemiological Analysis of Genital Herpes 23
Table 10: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Genital Herpes, Both Sexes, Ages ?18 Years, Select Years 2013-2023 35
Table 11: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Genital Herpes Segmented by Strain, Both Sexes, Ages ?18 Years, 2013 36
Table 12: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Genital Herpes Segmented by Sex, Ages ?18 Years, N (Row %)2013 38
Table 13: 7MM, Number of Persons Diagnosed with HSV-1 Experiencing Recurrences during the First Year of Diagnosis, Both Sexes, Ages ?18 Years, 2013 40
Table 14: 7MM, Number of Persons Diagnosed with HSV-2 Experiencing Recurrences During the First Year of Diagnosis, Both Sexes, Ages ?18 Years, 2013 41
Table 15: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HSV-1 Only Genital Herpes, Both Sexes, Ages ?18 Years, N, Select Years, 2013-2023 42
Table 16: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HSV-2 Only Genital Herpes, Both Sexes, Ages ?18 Years, N, Select Years, 2013-2023 43
Table 17: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HSV-1 and HSV-2 Co-infection Genital Herpes, Both Sexes, Ages ?18 Years, Select Years, 2013-2023 45

1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Genital Herpes, Both Sexes, Ages ?18 Years, Select Years, 2013-2023 35
Figure 2: Diagnosed incident Cases of Genital Herpes Segmented by Strain, Both Sexes, Ages ?18 Years, 2013 37
Figure 3: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Genital Herpes Segmented by Sex, Ages ?18 Years, 2013 39
Figure 4: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HSV-1 Only Genital Herpes, Both Sexes, Ages ?18 Years, N, 2013-2023 42
Figure 5: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HSV-2 Only Genital Herpes, Both Sexes, Ages ?18 Years, N, 2013-2023 44
Figure 6: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HSV-1 and HSV-2 Co-infection Genital Herpes, Both Sexes, Ages ?18 Years, Select Years, 2013-2023 45

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