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  5. > Chad Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Chad Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 64 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The ramping up of production from Glencore and China National Petroleum Corporation's newfields will support production increases in 2016 and 2017. Post-2017 there will be a gradual decline inoutput as a poor project pipeline is unable to offset the falling production rates at the mature Doba field.Despite large proven reserves and pipeline infrastructure in place, BMI believes that the poor businessenvironment and extraction problems that the consortium is facing will discourage further foreigninvestment in Chad. Throughout our forecast period, Chad will remain a net exporter of refined fuels andcrude oil. The non-existent gas infrastructure gives us reason to believe that there will be no natural gasproduction in our forecast period.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

- Consumption for refined fuels is set to increase throughout our forecast period at an average annual rateof 4% y-o-y. Chad's refined fuel consumption starts from a low base, with the majority of demandcoming from the electricity sector.

- Despite the last couple of years providing positive drilling results, exploration prospects are weak inChad throughout the forecast period. Capex cuts across all companies operating in Chad will limitexploration activity. Simba Energy has ambitious exploration plans in Chad, covering the Erdis BlockIII and the Chari Sud Blocks I and II. The exploratory programs include a range of surveys andexploration drilling.

- Glencore maintains its position regarding a limited drilling campaign, waiting for a more favourableprice environment to maximise the commercial potential of its resource base.

- We expect oil production to rise in 2016 and 2017 as output ramps up from the fields that were broughtonline in 2015. However the long term trend is downwards as decline rates at mature areas acceleratewith no new projects in the pipeline to offset the declines.

Table Of Contents

Chad Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Chad 2014-2020) 7
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 12
Table: Upstream Projects - Chad 12
Upstream Production - Oil 13
Latest Updates 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Oil Production (Chad 2014-2019) 15
Table: Oil Production (Chad 2020-2025) 16
Refining 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Chad 2014-2019) 18
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Chad 2020-2025) 19
Refined Fuels Consumption 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Chad 2014-2019) 21
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Chad 2020-2025) 21
Trade - Oil 22
Latest Updates 22
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Chad 2014-2020) 23
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Chad 2020-2025) 24
Fuels Trade Forecasts 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Chad 2014-2019) 25
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (2019-2025) 26
Industry Risk Reward Index 27
Africa - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 27
Table: BMI Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 27
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 30
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 30
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 33
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 33
Chad - Risk/Reward Index 35
Upstream Index 35
Upstream Index - Rewards 35
Upstream Index - Risks 36
Downstream Index 36
Market Overview 37
Chad Energy Market Overview 37
Regulatory Structure 37
Fiscal Regime 38
Table: Chad - Upstream Tax Regime 38
Licensing Regime 39
Table: Chad - Contracts And Licensing Regime 39
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 39
Table: Oil Refineries In Chad 39
Table: Oil Pipelines In Chad 40
Competitive Landscape 41
Company Profile 43
ExxonMobil 43
Table: Key Assets 43
Table: Key Financials 44
Glencore 45
Table: Main Assets 45
Table: Key Financial Data 46
Regional Overview 47
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 47
Table: Africa Oil and Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 56
Glossary 57
Table: Glossary Of Terms 57
Methodology 59
Industry Forecast Methodology 59
Source 61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 61
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 63
Table: Weighting 64

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