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Montenegro Country Report - June, 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 24 pages

This report covers the key macroeconomic and financial releases as well as the political events from Montenegro for the period of June 6-July 5, 2016.

The World Bank said in the June edition of its Global Economic Prospects report that Montenegro's GDP is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2016, accelerating from an estimated 3.4% rise in 2015.

414 former employees of Montenegro's aluminium smelter KAP have filed a claim against Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic, Economy Minister Vladimir Kavaric and former Finance Minister Radoje Zugic over unpaid severance. Meanwhile, the London Court of International Arbitration (LCIA) has dismissed arbitration on the claim filed by Russia's VTB Bank against KAP.

Montenegro's parliament approved the nominations for new agriculture minister from the opposition's quota, as well as new deputy prime minister, also from the opposition. Azra Jasavic, the deputy leader of the opposition Pozitivna Crna Gora, will become a Deputy Prime Minister, while Budimir Mugosa will head the agriculture ministry.

Italy's A2A has agreed to participate jointly with Montenegro's government in the construction of a second unit at the Pljevlja thermal power plant, according to the Deputy Prime Minister Vujica Lazovic.

Montenegro's parliament approved on June 28 an agreement with a consortium between Italy's Eni and Russia's Novatek on offshore oil and gas exploration.



Key points:



o The consumer prices declined by 1% y/y in May

o The number of foreign tourists visiting Montenegro increased by 8.1% y/y to 94,297 in May

o Industrial output increased by 9.1% in May

o Bank assets rose 7.9% y/y to EUR3.48bn as of the end of May

Table Of Contents

Montenegro Country Report - June, 2016
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY4

REAL SECTOR5

1.GDP5

Montenegro's GDP growth slows to 1.1% y/y in Q15

World Bank improves Montenegro's 2016 GDP growth forecast to 3.7%5

2.Inflation5

Montenegro reports HICP deflation of 0.3% y/y in May5

Montenegro's PPI swings to 0.2% y/y fall in May6

Montenegro's consumer prices fall further y/y in May6

3.Industry and Trade6

Montenegro's retail sales grow by 2.8% y/y in May6

Montenegro's industrial sales decline further in May7

Montenegro's industrial output resumes growth in May7

Montenegro's retail sales grow by 2.4% y/y in April8

4.Labour Market8

Montenegro's unemployment rate declines to 17.25% on July 48

Montenegro's monthly average net wage grows 4.2% y/y in May8

Montenegro's unemployment rate rises to 19.1% in Q1, Labour Force Survey shows9

Montenegro's unemployment rate declines to 17.32% on June 69

5.Tourism10

Foreign tourist arrivals in Montenegro rise 8.1% y/y in April10

FISCAL SECTOR10

Montenegro's public debt reaches 59.7% of GDP at end-March10

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION11

IMF warns Montenegrin banks of inadequate loan-loss provisioning11

Average lending interest rate in Montenegro falls to 7.75% in May11

Montenegro's bank deposits growth eases to 10.4% y/y in May12

Montenegro's bank assets growth slows further in May12

EXTERNAL SECTOR13

Montenegro's 5-mo trade gap widens 18.7% y/y13

Montenegro's Jan-Apr net FDI shrinks to EUR26.5mn13

STRUCTURAL REFORMS AND CORPORATE NEWS14

Montenegro's economy ministry says law on repayment of KAP obligations to workers unconstitutional14

Montenegro to invest EUR268.5mn in modernising industrial sector in 201614

Italy's A2A vies to build second unit at TE Pljevlja, Montenegro's Deputy PM Lazovic says15

Montenegro's parliament approves offshore oil, gas exploration deal15

Montenegro's power monopoly separates transmission unit16

Montenegro's economy committee head seeks information on media's tax debt16

Montenegro's MANS files claim against sale of land in Buljarica for tourist resort17

Montenegro plans construction of 46 hotels at Durmitor mountain17

Montenegro's tax authority initiates forced tax collection against several private media17

World Bank to lend up to $300mn to Montenegro in 2016-202018

Azerbaijani-owned Azmont Banka starts operating in Montenegro18

Former workers of Montenegro's KAP file claim against PM Djukanovic over unpaid severance19

London court dismisses request for arbitration on VTB's claim against Montenegro's KAP19

Lustica Development to spend EUR90mn on infrastructure at luxury marina in Montenegro20

EBRD to focus on tourism, agriculture, energy, infrastructure projects in Montenegro20

POLITICS20

Montenegro forms team to ensure fair and transparent electionst20

EU, Montenegro open chapters on food safety, fisheries in accession talks21

Brexit could have only an indirect effect on Montenegro's economy, central bank says21

Montenegro's parliament approves new deputy PM, agriculture minister22

Support for Montenegro's ruling DPS party declines, new poll suggests22

Former president Marovic resigns from post in Montenegro's ruling DPS23

Montenegro's newly-elected agriculture minister to resign24

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