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"The telecoms service market in the Middle East and North Africa will grow at a CAGR of 1.3% between 2015 and 2021 to USD77.6 billion."

We forecast that 67% of total telecoms service revenue in 2021 in the Middle East and North Africa will come from mobile services. Smartphone adoption has been strong and LTE is gaining momentum across the region, creating opportunities for operators to monetise the huge consumer appetite for data.

THIS REPORT AND ASSOCIATED DATA ANNEX PROVIDE:

a 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for the Middle East and North Africa region and for twelve key countries
an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
data for Iran, which has been added to the forecast coverage
an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences through a cross-country comparison
a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverage

Key performance indicators
Regions modelled
Middle East and North Africa

Countries modelled individually
Algeria
Egypt
Iran*
Iraq
Israel
Kuwait
Morocco
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Tunisia
United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Countries not modelled individually, but modelled as part of the region as a whole
Bahrain
Jordan
Lebanon
Libya
Palestine
Syria
Yemen

Connections
Mobile
Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
Prepaid, contract
2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
Smartphone,
non-smartphone

Fixed
Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
Narrowband voice, VoBB
DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other
Fixed and mobile voice traffic
Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue
Mobile
Service, retail
Prepaid, contract
Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed
Service, retail
Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other
Mobile ARPU
SIMs, handset
Prepaid, contract
Handset voice, data

Table Of Contents

The Middle East and North Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016-2021
11. Executive summary
12. The telecoms service market in MENA will grow to USD77.5 billion in 2021,
against the backdrop of a weaker macroeconomic outlook
13. Telecoms retail revenue will increase by USD6.2 billion between 2015 and
2021, driven by mobile handset data and fixed broadband services
14. Fixed or mobile revenue will grow in most countries, but competition,
market saturation and lack of investment will have an impact on some
15. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
16. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
17. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
18. Geographical coverage: We model twelve telecoms markets, which will
account for 90.7% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2021
19. Market context: The twelve modelled countries account for 83.3% of total
population and 92.4% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2015
20. Revenue and ARPU: Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue
growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate
21. Mobile penetration: Maturing markets and enforced SIM registration have
already led to a slow down in the number of new mobile connections
22. Mobile connections: 44.2% of all connections will be 3G by 2021, while LTE
will account for nearly a quarter of mobile SIMs (excluding M2M)
23. Smartphones and 4G/5G: Israel will have the highest smartphone
penetration and UAE will lead 4G/5G take-up rates over the next 5 years
24. Mobile ARPU: Growth in data will offset the decline from voice and
messaging, thereby lessening the rate of decline of ARPU
25. Fixed services: Broadband market will grow in most countries, driven by
upgrades to access technology and greenfield infrastructure deployment
26. Fixed broadband: Household penetration will grow in all markets, driven by
market competition and supported by national broadband plans
27. Key drivers at a glance for each Middle East and North Africa market
28. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
29. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
30. Individual country forecasts
31. Algeria: Retail revenue will grow at a CAGR of 0.6% during 2015-2021,
driven by demand for mobile and fixed broadband services
32. Algeria - mobile: 3G and the upcoming 4G launch will provide the
momentum to drive demand for mobile data services
33. Algeria - fixed: DSL and fixed LTE have great potential for growth, but lack
of investment will be a significant obstacle
34. Egypt: Service revenue will grow at a CAGR of 0.9% to 2021, driven by
demand for fixed broadband and handset data
35. Egypt - mobile: Service revenue is set to decline at a CAGR of -1.1% over
2016-2021, giving a weakened market outlook
36. Egypt - fixed: Strong growth in broadband connections, while price
adjustments and business lines will help slow voice erosion
37. Iran: Lifting of sanctions will improve GDP and encourage investment, while
data services will bolster the mobile segment
38. Iran - mobile: Increased access to 3G and 4G services and the prospect of
new market entrants will underpin future growth
39. Iran - fixed: Market development will depend on investment in
infrastructure, amidst competition from mobile to voice services
40. Iraq: The challenging economic and volatile security situations will take
their toll on consumer demand in the short term
41. Iraq - mobile: Political instability and low oil prices will impact the economy,
but data offer some potential for revenue growth
42. Iraq - fixed: Poor fixed line infrastructure and persistent civil war will
contribute to the under-development of the sector
43. Israel: Competition and price erosion will continue to impact mobile
revenue; fixed market liberalisation will spur competition
44. Israel - mobile: Intense competition will result in significant revenue
decline, while 3G share will start to fall from 2016
45. Israel - fixed: Speed upgrades and the introduction of fibre in 2016 will
spur further growth in broadband market revenue
46. Kuwait: Mobile market dynamism and growth are contrasted with a fixed
market that lacks competition and investment
47. Kuwait - mobile: LTE will be central to mobile market competition as
operators aim to increase data usage to stabilise ARPU
48. Kuwait - fixed: Planned privatisation of fixed infrastructure and fixed-
mobile partnerships could unlock broadband potential
49. Morocco: Voice revenue will decline, but still dominate the market, while
mobile handset data will be the fastest-growing sector
50. Morocco - mobile: Strong growth of data revenue will be insufficient to
offset rapidly declining voice revenue
51. Morocco - fixed: Fixed voice market will remain largely resilient, while
broadband adoption will be driven by business and dual-play
52. Oman: Service revenue growth will maintain its rapid rise, driven by very
strong demand for fixed and mobile data
53. Oman - mobile: Very strong data revenue outlook, while a new third entrant
could pose a risk of ARPU and market value erosion
54. Oman - fixed: Fixed voice revenue will decline from 2015, while fibre
competition increases due to ambitious roll-out plans
55. Qatar: Strong economic and population growth will help telecoms services
to generate QAR10 billion in retail revenue by 2021
56. Qatar - mobile: Demand from migrants will sustain growth in connections,
while 4G competition will be based on technology
57. Qatar - fixed: Quasi-ubiquity of fibre creates opportunities for upselling of
TV services, but these will be limited to Ooredoo
58. Saudi Arabia: Broadband data services will drive retail revenue growth, but
competition will reduce short-term market growth
59. Saudi Arabia - mobile: MVNOs will drive subscriber growth in the short
term, while data will capture half of retail revenue by 2021
60. Saudi Arabia - fixed: Voice market recovered in 2015 thanks to the
business segment while broadband outlook appears strong
61. Tunisia: Infrastructure investments and competition will help stimulate
growth amidst political and economic challenges
62. Tunisia - mobile: Steady growth of subscribers from Lycamobile launch,
while demand for data will be key to revenue growth
63. Tunisia - fixed: The broadband market will grow slowly due to competition
from mobile, while the telephony market will contract
64. UAE: Economic diversification and population growth will help increase
telecoms retail revenue to AED42.9 billion by 2021
65. UAE - mobile: Increasing contributions from postpaid and data users
should help to drive revenue growth and slow ARPU erosion
66. UAE - fixed: Infrastructure sharing will stimulate competition and
encourage operators to invest in the sector to maintain growth
67. About the author and Analysys Mason
68. About the author
69. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
70. Research from Analysys Mason
71. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Middle East and North
Africa, 2015-2021
Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2015-2021) and total
retail revenue (2021) by country, Middle East and North Africa
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for the Middle East
and North Africa
Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA penetration of
fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2021
Figure 6: Metrics for the twelve countries modelled individually in the Middle
East and North Africa, 2015
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed
broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2015-2021
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa,
2015-2021
Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Middle
East and North Africa, 2011-2021
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and
3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-
2021
6
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G share of total
connections (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2015 and 2021
Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and
mobile broadband connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Middle East
and North Africa, 2011-2021
Figure 16: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2015) and future trajectory
(2016-2021) by country, Middle East and North Africa
Figure 17: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers
table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Algeria, 2011-2021
Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Algeria, 2015-2021
Figure 20: Connections by type, and growth rates, Algeria, 2015-2021
Figure 21: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Algeria, 2011-
2021
Figure 22: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Algeria, 2011-2021
Figure 23: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Algeria
Figure 24: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Algeria, 2011-2021
Figure 25: Fixed ASPU by service type, Algeria, 2011-2021
Figure 26: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Algeria
Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Egypt, 2011-2021
Figure 28: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Egypt, 2015-2021
Figure 29: Connections by type, and growth rates, Egypt, 2015-2021
Figure 30: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Egypt, 2011-
2021
Figure 31: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Egypt, 2011-2021
Figure 32: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Egypt
Figure 33: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Egypt, 2011-2021
Figure 34: Fixed ASPU by service type, Egypt, 2011-2021
Figure 35: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Egypt
Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Iran, 2011-2021
Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Iran, 2015-2021
Figure 38: Connections by type, and growth rates, Iran, 2015-2021
Figure 39: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Iran, 2011-2021
7
Figure 40: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Iran, 2011-2021
Figure 41: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Iran
Figure 42: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Iran, 2011-2021
Figure 43: Fixed ASPU by service type, Iran, 2011-2021
Figure 44: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Iran
Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Iraq, 2011-2021
Figure 46: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Iraq, 2015-2021
Figure 47: Connections by type, and growth rates, Iraq, 2015-2021
Figure 48: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Iraq, 2011-2021
Figure 49: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Iraq, 2011-2021
Figure 50: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Iraq
Figure 51: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Iraq, 2011-2021
Figure 52: Fixed ASPU by service type, Iraq, 2011-2021
Figure 53: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Iraq
Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Israel, 2011-2021
Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Israel, 2015-2021
Figure 56: Connections by type, and growth rates, Israel, 2015-2021
Figure 57: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Israel, 2011-
2021
Figure 58: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Israel, 2011-2021
Figure 59: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Israel
Figure 60: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Israel, 2011-2021
Figure 61: Fixed ASPU by service type, Israel, 2011-2021
Figure 62: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Israel
Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Kuwait, 2011-2021
Figure 64: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Kuwait, 2015-2021
Figure 65: Connections by type, and growth rates, Kuwait, 2015-2021
Figure 66: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Kuwait, 2011-
2021
Figure 67: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Kuwait, 2011-2021
Figure 68: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Kuwait
Figure 69: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Kuwait, 2011-2021
Figure 70: Fixed ASPU by service type, Kuwait, 2011-2021
Figure 71: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Kuwait
8
Figure 72: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Morocco, 2011-2021
Figure 73: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Morocco, 2015-2021
Figure 74: Connections by type, and growth rates, Morocco, 2015-2021
Figure 75: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Morocco, 2011-
2021
Figure 76: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Morocco, 2011-2021
Figure 77: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Morocco
Figure 78: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Morocco, 2011-2021
Figure 79: Fixed ASPU by service type, Morocco, 2011-2021
Figure 80: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Morocco
Figure 81: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Oman, 2011-2021
Figure 82: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Oman, 2015-2021
Figure 83: Connections by type, and growth rates, Oman, 2015-2021
Figure 84: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Oman, 2011-
2021
Figure 85: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Oman, 2011-2021
Figure 86: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Oman
Figure 87: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Oman, 2011-2021
Figure 88: Fixed ASPU by service type, Oman, 2011-2021
Figure 89: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Oman
Figure 90: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Qatar, 2011-2021
Figure 91: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Qatar, 2015-2021
Figure 92: Connections by type, and growth rates, Qatar, 2015-2021
Figure 93: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Qatar, 2011-
2021
Figure 94: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Qatar, 2011-2021
Figure 95: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Qatar
Figure 96: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Qatar, 2011-2021
Figure 97: Fixed ASPU by service type, Qatar, 2011-2021
Figure 98: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Qatar
Figure 99: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Saudi Arabia, 2011-2021
Figure 100: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2015-2021
Figure 101: Connections by type, and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2015-2021
Figure 102: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Saudi Arabia
2011-2021
Figure 103: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Saudi Arabia, 2011-2021
9
Figure 104: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Saudi
Arabia
Figure 105: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2011-2021
Figure 106: Fixed ASPU by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2011-2021
Figure 107: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Saudi
Arabia
Figure 108: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), Tunisia, 2011-2021
Figure 109: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, Tunisia, 2015-2021
Figure 110: Connections by type, and growth rates, Tunisia, 2015-2021
Figure 111: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Tunisia, 2011-
2021
Figure 112: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Tunisia, 2011-2021
Figure 113: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Tunisia
Figure 114: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Tunisia, 2011-2021
Figure 115: Fixed ASPU by service type, Tunisia, 2011-2021
Figure 116: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Tunisia
Figure 117: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue
(retail and wholesale), UAE, 2011-2021
Figure 118: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and
growth rates, UAE, 2015-2021

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