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Global Nuclear Energy Outlook

  • March 2015
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan

Key Findings

Global nuclear installed capacity will increase from GW in 2012 to GW in 2030. While this is lower than all the other major fuels, apart from oil, the high operational efficiency of nuclear means it will increase its share of global electricity generated by % ( % to %).
China is the most important market for new investment, accounting for % of global capacity additions.
From 2012 to 2030, North American installed capacity will increase by approximately %, as gas and renewable energy are the investment priorities. South America and Europe are facing similar situations, wherein installed capacity will decline by %, mainly because of the nuclear closures in Germany.
As of December 2014, all of Japan’s reactors were offline. From 2015 to 2017, Frost & Sullivan forecasts approximately to come online, particularly given the recent election victory of the pro-nuclear government, led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Of the x countries where nuclear accounts for more than x % of the total electricity generated, 8 are European.
Civilian nuclear power generation is big business, with countries keen to promote their technology abroad to win high-value contracts. Russian, French, Japanese, Chinese, and South Korean manufacturers are competing to win orders.
Kazakhstan, Canada, and Australia are the most important uranium suppliers, with the United States, France, and China being the major customers. As of January 26th, 2015, uranium was priced at $ per lb. As global supply exceeds capacity, price is forecast to remain below $ per lb until 2020.
Molten salt reactors, thorium reactors, nuclear fusion reactors, and small nuclear reactors are attracting the most R&D and media attention; however, none is likely to have a significant impact on the industry for a minimum of years.

CEO’s Perspective

Nuclear will remain an important element in the global fuel mix because it can supply reliable, carbon-free electricity.
The high capital costs and the lingering public opposition are major restraints; however, the predictable long-term revenue stream is attractive for some investors, particularly those in regulated electricity markets.
From the perspective of nuclear plant equipment supply, experience and track record are vital, making the market a difficult one to enter.
Given that China and South Korea are dominated by local contractors, the best project potential can be found in South Asia and the Middle East.
Given previous disappointments, investing in future technologies and fuels is a high-risk venture and tends to be dominated by wealthy corporations or U.S. billionaires.

Table Of Contents

Global Nuclear Energy Outlook
Executive Summary 3
Market Overview 11
Drivers and Restraints 17
Nuclear Investment Trends 24
The Geopolitics of Nuclear Energy 32
Fuel Consumption and Price Trends 36
Future Technology and Fuels 39
Competitive Landscape 46
Nuclear Country Profiles 50
The Last Word 75
Appendix: Global Nuclear Investment Trends 78
The Frost and Sullivan Story 82

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