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Telecoms revenue in North America will grow between 2016 and 2021 (despite intensifying competition in the US mobile market), due to growth in fixed broadband spending driven by NGA roll-out. This report explains the drivers and assumptions behind the forecast trends.

"Growth in fixed broadband prices will mitigate the competition-induced decline in mobile revenue."

The fixed broadband market will be the major source of revenue growth in North America, as lack of competition and growing coverage of high-speed (up to gigabit) FTTH and cable networks allows operators to charge more for more-advanced services. However, mobile service revenue will decline due to growing competition in the USA, brought on by the competitive pricing and promotional strategies of T-Mobile.

THIS REPORT AND ASSOCIATED DATA ANNEX PROVIDE:

- a 5-year forecast of more than 170 mobile and fixed KPIs for North America, as a whole and 2 key countries
- an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
- an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
- a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Regions modelled
North America

Countries modelled individually
Canada
USA

Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile
- Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
- Prepaid, contract
- 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
- Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed
- Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
- Narrowband voice, VoBB
- DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic
- Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile
- Service, retail
- Prepaid, contract
- Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
- Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed
- Service, retail
- Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
- DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU
- SIMs, handset
- Prepaid, contract
- Handset voice, data

Table Of Contents

The North America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016-2021
7. Executive summary
8. Telecoms retail revenue in North America will grow marginally between 2015 and 2021
9. Spending on both fixed and mobile data will drive revenue growth
10. Regional trends follow the USA, but revenue in Canada will grow more strongly
11. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
12. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
13. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
14. Geographical coverage: The USA contributes over 90% of the region's revenue
15. Market context: Higher dependency on the resource extraction sector and unfavourable exchange rate movements affect Canada's economy
16. Revenue and ARPU: Increasing data spending will drive revenue growth
17. Mobile penetration: A growing population, lower prices and increasing sales of connected devices will drive up mobile penetration in the USA
18. Mobile connections: Even low-end connections will be 4G by 2021
19. Smartphones and LTE: Smartphones will be near-universal by 2021
20. Mobile broadband: Almost all mobile broadband connections in the region will be LTE-based by 2018
21. Mobile ARPU: Service revenue in Canada is growing, but competition and the elimination of device subsidies is driving it down in the USA
22. Data and revenue by generation: Nearly all mobile revenue will come from 4G by 2019
23. Fixed services: Cable will continue to dominate the broadband market, but FTTP will grow strongly
24. Fixed broadband: Revenue growth will have to come from price increases as the potential for further user base growth diminishes
25. Key drivers at a glance for each North America market
26. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
27. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
28. Individual country forecasts
29. Canada: Retail revenue will peak in 2018, due to declining voice revenues and a saturated fixed broadband user base
30. Canada - mobile: Growing take-up of more expensive services and lack of price competition will drive revenue growth
31. Canada - fixed: Gigabit access rollout and limited regional competition will support broadband revenue growth
32. USA: Fixed broadband will be the main source of revenue growth
33. USA - mobile: Competition and the decoupling of service and device contracts is driving down service revenue
34. USA - fixed: Consolidation will have a limited effect on consumers, due to regionalised operator footprints

List of figures

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), North America, 2011-2021
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, North America, 2015- 2021
Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2015-2021), by country, North America
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for North America
Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, North America, 2021
Figure 6: Metrics for the two countries modelled individually in North America, 2015
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, North America, 2011-2021
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, North America, 2015-2021
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, North America, 2015-2021
Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), North America, 2011-2021
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G/5G's share of connections, North America, 2011-2021
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), North America, 2015 and 2021
Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, North America, 2011-2021
Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, North America, 2011-2021
Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, North America, 2011-2021
Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, North America, 2011-2021
Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, North America, 2011-2021
Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, North America, 2011-2021
Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2015) and future trajectory (2016-2021), by country, North America
Figure 20: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Canada, 2011-2021
Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Canada, 2015-2021
Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Canada, 2015-2021
Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Canada, 2011-2021
Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Canada, 2011-2021
Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Canada
Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Canada, 2011-2021
Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, Canada, 2011-2021
Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Canada
Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), USA, 2011-2021
Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, USA, 2015-2021
Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, USA, 2015-2021
Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, USA, 2011-2021
Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, USA, 2011-2021
Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, USA
Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, USA, 2011-2021
Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, USA, 2011-2021
Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, USA

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