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Albania Country Risk Report Q4 2015

  • August 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 41 pages

Core Views

Albania will remain attached to a relatively low growth trajectory over the coming years, amid weak private consumption and government
fiscal consolidation efforts
M ore efforts need to be made to implement structural reforms aimed at tackling corruption and improving labour market flexibility if Albania is to have any hope of converging with historically more developed regional peers

Albania's large and entrenched trade balance shortfall will ensure that the country's current account remains firmly in deficit over the coming years
Uncertainty in neighbouring Greece throughout the country's 2015 debt crisis will increase the scope for regional instability It will also weigh on demand for Albanian exports to Greece and remittances inflows from Albanian workers based in Greece

Table Of Contents

Albania Country Risk Report Q4 2015
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Key Risks To Outlook5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Index 7
Domestic Politics 8
EU Convergence Story On Hold8
Although Albania stands to benefit from Greece remaining in the eurozone, the political outlook for the country will remain challenging
in 2015 Progress on EU accession will be limited, relations with Serbia will remain strained, and domestic economic conditions will not
improve enough to materially boost living standards
TABLE: Political Overview8
Long-Term Political Outlook 9
Stumbling Towards The EU9
We expect Albania to continue progressing towards EU membership over the next decade, though caution that forward momentum will
be sluggish Lack of institutional development and endemic corruption remain key challenges to stability over the long term This will
diminish efforts to address systemic problems regarding weak governance Key risks through 2024 will largely revolve around the EU
accession progress, and we also highlight a possible deterioration in regional relations over the 'Kosovo Issue' as a particular flashpoint
of instability
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Index 13
Economic Activity 14
Economic Convergence Story Losing Steam14
Slow rates of real GDP growth will ensure that Albania remains among the poorest countries in Europe over the next decade An
overreliance on private consumption is sub-optimal given the Albanian consumer sector's nascent level of development, while slow
progress implementing structural reforms will dampen the country's long-term economic outlook
TABLE: Economic Activity14
Balance Of Payments 16
Sustained External Financing Pressures16
Albania's current account deficit will remain wide for the foreseeable future While a large external funding requirement will pose
moderate risks to financial stability in the years ahead, Albania's healthy stock of FDI and international reserves imply limited risks of a
full blown balance of payments crisis emerging anytime soon
TABLE: Balance Of Payments16
Monetary Policy 17
Central Bank To Retain Its Dovish Bias17
Albania's central bank is generally regard as one of the country's more respected institutions, and has had relative success in keeping
inflation within a comfortable range in recent years Despite this, we remain sceptical that the banks increasingly dovish bias will be
sufficient to compensate for weak domestic demand and structural inefficiencies in the economy
TABLE: Monetary Policy18
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 21
The Albanian Economy To 2024 21
Regional Outlook Weighs On Trend Growth21
Though we project real GDP to expand by 35% between 2014 and 2024, we caution that Albania is expected to remain one of the least
developed states in South East Europe While small-scale export-oriented manufacturing will begin to take on a more prominent role
over the next few years, remittance inflows from expatriate migrant workers will remain a key source of foreign capital, underscoring the
relatively nascent stage of economic development in the Western Balkan state
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts21
4 wwwbmiresearchcom Business Monitor International Ltd
Albania Q4 2015
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 23
SWOT Analysis 23
Operational Risk Index 23
Operational Risk 24
TABLE: Sout h East Eur ope - Lab our Market Risk 24
TABLE: Sout h East Eur ope - Logistics Risk 27
TABLE: Sout h East Eur ope - Crime And Securit y Risk 28
TABLE: Sout h East Eur ope - Trade And Investme nt Risk 29
tABLE: Main Import Products, 201230
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook 39
Global Outlook 39
Assessing The Aftermath Of Three Key Events39
Table: Global Assumptions39
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %40
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 40
Table : Emergi ng Markets , Real GDP Growt h, %41

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