1. Market Research
  2. > Energy & Environment
  3. > Energy
  4. > Oil and Gas Energy Market Trends
  5. > Bosnia-Herzegovina Country Risk Report Q4 2016

Bosnia-Herzegovina Country Risk Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 41 pages

Core Views


Partisan manoeuvring, ethnic divisions, and complex governingstructures combine to make Bosnia-Herzegovina’s political systemlargely dysfunctional. With few signs that radical improvements areforthcoming even after the country’s agreement over the EU accessionprocess, we expect the coming years to be tainted by frustratingdelays to badly-needed reforms.After outperforming in 2015, economic growth is set to subsidesomewhat in the coming years due to external headwinds andinternal impediments to economic activity.Budget policy will be anchored by the three-year IMF lending agreement,especially as the entity governments rely on external fundingto cover budget deficits. This should ensure short-term financialstability and fiscal discipline, though has so far done little to addressstructural problems.



Major Forecast Changes

We have revised down our forecast for GDP growth in 2016 and2017 to 2.7% and 2.9%, respectively, due to the anticipated slowdownin export growth amid weaker demand from many EU states,post-Brexit vote.As price pressures fail to materialise so far in 2016, we have loweredour target for full-year average inflation to -0.3%, rising to 1.1%in 2017.

Table Of Contents

Bosnia-Herzegovina Country Risk Report Q4 2016
Executive Summary.. 5
Core Views...5
Major Forecast Changes.5
Key Risks.5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook.. 7
SWOT Analysis... 7
BMI Economic Risk Index.. 7
Economic Growth Outlooks.. 8
Regional Slowdown To Weigh On Export Demand..8
We expect GDP growth in Bosnia-Herzegovina to ease slightly in the coming two years due to the impact of a region-wide slowdown
in trade. Nonetheless, the country's economic outlook is relatively sanguine with improved domestic demand set to support steady
medium-term growth. Deep political and structural problems will remain a drag on growth potential.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS..9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS..10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS...10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS..10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS ...10
Structural Fiscal Position 11
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS...11
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES.11
Outlook On External Position.. 12
TABLE: CAPITAL and FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE.12
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS USD..13
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS EUR..13
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS...14
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS14
Monetary Policy Framework 14
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS..15
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast... 17
The Bosnian Economy To 2025.. 17
Numerous Risks To Undermine Convergence Potential...17
Bosnia's economic and political convergence will continue to be hampered by underlying inter-ethnic tensions in the country. Over the
long term, divisions among the ethnic Serb, Croat and Bosnian political parties will continue to slow progress on a host of EU-related
reforms. That said, while we do not expect Sarajevo to obtain EU membership by 2025, we nevertheless maintain a relatively sanguine
outlook on the country's fundamental growth prospects.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS.17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook... 19
SWOT Analysis. 19
BMI Political Risk Index... 19
Domestic Politics 20
EU Deal Vital, But Will not Address Deep Political Divisions...20
New deals with the EU and IMF represent important breakthroughs for Bosnia-Herzegovina, but we believe further progress will be
bogged down by the country's deep ethnic divisions and unwieldy political system. The EU and IMF are still vital anchors for policy in the
short term, though there is a risk of this fading over time.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW.20
Long-Term Political Outlook... 22
Ethnic Tensions To Dominate Local Politics Over Next Decade..22
Chapter 4: Operational Risk... 27
SWOT Analysis. 27
Operational Risk Index 27
Operational Risk... 28
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK.28
Market Size And Utilities . 29
TABLE: EMERGING EUROPE - MARKET SIZE AND UTILITIES AVAILABILITY RISK 29
Labour Costs ... 33
TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE... 33
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook... 37
Global Macro Outlook.. 37
Brexit To Hit Global Growth.37
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS..37
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %38
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %...39
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS..41

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 12000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“Rise in crude oil production worldwide drives the COFI market” The global market size of COFI is estimated to reach USD 1.73 billion by 2021 from 1.32 billion in 2016, at a CAGR of 5.5%. Excessive ...

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

  • $ 7000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Transparency Market Research

The filter bags market report provides an in-depth analysis of the global filter bag market for the period 2014 – 2024, wherein 2015 is the base year and the years from 2016 to 2024 is the forecast period. ...


ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.