1. Market Research
  2. > Energy & Environment
  3. > Energy
  4. > Oil and Gas Energy Market Trends
  5. > Denmark Country Risk Report Q4 2016

Denmark Country Risk Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 25 pages

Core Views


Real GDP growth in Denmark will continue to be driven by domesticconsumption, which will offset external headwinds to a large degree.However, the large debt burden of the private sector will restraingrowth over a multi-year horizon.We retain the view that the government will remain unstable. Theone-party Liberal minority government will have a difficult time passinglegislation, making it likely that the government will be oustedbefore its term ends in 2019.There is a high probability that Denmark will seek a renegotiationwith the European Union over its terms of membership in the blocfollowing the UK's vote in June 2016 to leave the union. In any event,eurosceptic parties will continue to press for reform, increasingpolitical instability.



Major Forecast Changes

We have downgraded our 2016 real GDP growth forecast to 0.8%from 1.0% previously, and 2017 to 1.0% from 1.2% previously. Thisis on account of external factors dampening economic activity inDenmark between now and 2018, including the impact of 'Brexit'.We now see central bank policy interest rate hikes beginning in2020, a year later than we had previously expected.

Table Of Contents

Denmark Country Risk Report Q4 2016
Executive Summary.. 5
Core Views...5
Major Forecast Changes.5
Key Risks.5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook.. 7
SWOT Analysis... 7
BMI Economic Risk Index.. 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
External Headwinds To Hit Growth8
Danish economic activity will decelerate considerably in H216 and early 2017, with private consumption slowing down and exports
remaining sluggish amid a weak external environment. Residential construction will be a bright spot, helping offset weakness in
business investment.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS..9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS...10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS..10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS10
Monetary Policy 11
Rates Lower For Longer On ECB, Brexit11
Danish policy rates will remain unchanged until 2020, reflecting sustained loose monetary policy by the European Central Bank as
it attempts to underpin a slow and risk-fraught eurozone economic recovery. The krone-euro peg will remain firmly intact, though a
eurozone systemic crisis could put the peg under upside pressure, potentially necessitating rate cuts.
Monetary Policy Framework 12
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS..12
Chapter 2: Political Outlook... 15
SWOT Analysis. 15
BMI Political Risk Index... 15
Domestic Politics. 16
Government Instability To Rise Post-Brexit...16
The likelihood of Danish government instability has risen following the UK's 'Brexit' vote, with calls for a renegotiation of Denmark's
relationship with the EU set to mount.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW.16
Long-Term Political Outlook... 17
Welfare Reform, Migration Are Key Long-Term Issues.17
Denmark will experience broad political stability over the coming decade, but changes to the welfare state will see divisions emerge
between left and right, and old and young. Meanwhile, opposition to immigration will increase, and the country's membership of the
EU will come under increasing public scrutiny. The government will continue to face demands from Greenland for full independence,
although this scenario will not play out in our 10-year forecast period to 2025.
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook... 21
Global Macro Outlook.. 21
Brexit To Hit Global Growth.21
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS..21
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %22
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %...23
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS..25

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 12000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“Rise in crude oil production worldwide drives the COFI market” The global market size of COFI is estimated to reach USD 1.73 billion by 2021 from 1.32 billion in 2016, at a CAGR of 5.5%. Excessive ...

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

  • $ 7000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Transparency Market Research

The filter bags market report provides an in-depth analysis of the global filter bag market for the period 2014 – 2024, wherein 2015 is the base year and the years from 2016 to 2024 is the forecast period. ...


ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.