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Gabon & Congo Brazzaville Country Risk Report Q4 2015

  • August 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 45 pages

Core Views

The Republic of Congo (Congo-Brazzaville) is set to be among the fastest-growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the coming five years, expanding at an average annual rate of 60% from 2016 through to 2020 Despite this healthy outlook, the country's dependency on the oil sector, which accounts for around 70% of
budget income and 80% of export revenues, means it cannot escape the negative short-term impact of the recent slump in prices Indeed, we have lowered our forecast for growth in 2015 to 37%, from a previous 53%

The Republic of Congo faces a period of political and social unrest as the debate over constitutional reform that would allow President Denis Sassou-Nguesso to extend his rule to over two decades becomes increasingly polarised Despite the threat of violent protests in the coming months, we believe political instability will not deteriorate
into a full-blown crisis

Core Views

We expect economic growth in Gabon will slow to 41% in 2015, as the slump in oil prices punches a hole in fiscal and export revenues
We expect growth to recover slightly to 49% in 2016, spurred by public works associated with the African Cup of Nations to be held in Gabon in 2017
Gabon faces a key test to political stability in the coming 12 months as the country prepares for elections in mid-2016 There has already been an increase in political tensions in recent months, manifest in a series of strikes and public demonstrations, and we expect the climate to remain uneasy as the ballot draws near Nevertheless,
our core view is unchanged: we expect President Ali Bongo Ondimba to triumph in next year's ballot, overcoming the challenge of a splintered opposition on an electoral playing field that tends to favour the incumbent

Table Of Contents

Gabon and Congo Brazzaville Country Risk Report Q4 2015
Executive Summary - Congo-Brazzaville 11
Core Views11
Chapter 11: Political Outlook - Congo-Brazzaville 13
SWOT Analysis 13
Domestic Politics 14
Sassou-Nguesso To Weather Storm Over Constitutional Reform14
The Republic of Congo faces a period of political and social unr est as the debate over constitutional reform that would allow
President Denis Sassou-Nguesso to extend his rule to over two d ecades becomes increasingly polarised Despite the threat of
violent protests in the coming months, we believe political instability will not deteriorate into a full-blown crisis
Chapter 12: Economic Outlook - Congo-Brazzaville 17
SWOT Analysis 17
Economic Activity 18
Oil Output Spike To Fuel Growth18
We have revised down our target for 2015 real GDP growth to 37%, from a previous 53%, due to the fall in oil prices and fiscal
tightening However, the economic outlook for the Republic of Congo remains sanguine, largely on account of the coming boom in oil
output
Chapter 13: 10-Year Forecast - Congo-Brazzaville 21
The Congo Economy To 2024 21
Growth Boom, Little Economic Development21
An upswing in oil production and the beginning of iron ore exports will boost headline GDP growth in the Republic of the Congo between
2015 and 2018, but economic expansion will subsequently falter Growth will be limited to a few sectors, and progress on addressing
widespread poverty will be slow
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts21
Chapter 14: Operational Risk - Congo-Brazzaville 25
SWOT Analysis 25
Executive Summary - Gabon 27
Core Views27
Chapter 21: Political Outlook - Gabon 29
SWOT Analysis 29
Domestic Politics 30
President Bongo To Overcome Mounting Pressure in Election Year30
Our core political view holds that President Ali Bongo Ondimba will stay in power despite rising dissatisfaction in the run-up to the
2016 elections However, increased political tensions and uncertainty will threaten investor interest at a crucial time for economic
development
Chapter 22: Economic Outlook - Gabon 33
SWOT Analysis 33
Economic Activity 34
Downturn Highlights Need For Diversification34
GDP growth will slow from an estimated 54% in 2014 to 41% in 2015, as the slump in oil prices hits fiscal and export revenues
Growth should recover gradually from 2016, but risks will remain elevated as gaping budget and external defici ts persist
4 wwwbmiresearchcom Business Monitor International Ltd
CONGO-bRAZZAVILLE and GABON Q4 2015
Chapter 23: 10-Year Forecast - Gabon 37
The Gabon Economy To 2024 37
Growth To Continue As Economy Diversifies37
Annual real GDP growth in Gabon will average 49 % between 201 5 and 2024 due to rising consumer spending and high levels of
capital expenditure President Ali Bongo's efforts to reduce the economy's reliance on oil will be moderately successful
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts37
Chapter 24: Operational Risk - Gabon 41
SWOT Analysis 41
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook 43
Global Outlook 43
Assessing The Aftermath Of Three Key Events43
Table: Global Assumptions43
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %44
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 44
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %45

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