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  5. > Norway Country Risk Report Q4 2016

Norway Country Risk Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 25 pages

Core Views


The Norwegian economy will avoid recession in 2016-2017, butlower long-term oil prices will keep investment subdued and domesticconsumption suppressed.The Norwegian government will continue to expand fiscal policy inorder to stimulate demand, but its efforts to improve export competitivenesswill be slow to bear fruit.The residential housing market has been a major contributor tooverall real GDP growth for most of the past decade, but is set tocool over the next few years.The Conservative Party will maintain its minority coalition with thesupport of its partner the Progress Party, and will win re-election inthe September 2017 general elections, albeit falling somewhat shortof a majority government.

Table Of Contents

Norway Country Risk Report Q4 2016
Executive Summary.. 5
Core Views...5
Key Risks.5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook.. 7
SWOT Analysis... 7
BMI Economic Risk Index.. 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Oil Price Relapse Is The Key Risk.8
The Norwegian economy has avoided recession and the worst of the downturn is over. However, the structural downturn in global
energy prices will continue to constrain Norwegian growth, as the non-energy economy adjusts to become more competitive.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS..10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS...10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS..10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS11
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS.11
Currency Forecast 11
NOK: Slow Rebound Ahead Alongside Oil.11
The Norwegian krone is struggling amid a temporary relapse in the oil price recovery, and further downside in crude represents the
most significant downside risk. Nonetheless, we expect modest appreciation over the next two years as oil prices move higher, and the
central bank moves closer to normalising rates, in contrast to the European Central Bank.
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST12
Monetary Policy Framework 13
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS..13
Chapter 3: Political Outlook... 15
SWOT Analysis. 15
BMI Political Risk Index... 15
Domestic Politics. 16
‘Brexit' Presents Long-Term Risks..16
The UK's vote in June to leave the European Union will have limited near-term repercussions for Norway, but it could have a significant
long-term impact. In many plausible scenarios, depending on how 'Brexit' evolves, Norway could end up renegotiating its arrangement
with the rest of Europe, though both EU accession and exiting the European Economic Area are extremely unlikely outcomes.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW.16
Chapter 4: Operational Risk... 19
SWOT Analysis. 19
Operational Risk Index 19
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook... 21
Global Macro Outlook.. 21
Brexit To Hit Global Growth.21
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS..21
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %22
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %...23
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS..25

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