1. Market Research
  2. > Energy & Environment
  3. > Energy
  4. > Oil and Gas Energy Market Trends
  5. > Poland Country Risk Report Q4 2016

Poland Country Risk Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 45 pages

Core Views


Poland’s robust real GDP growth will continue throughout 2016 and2017, driven mainly by household consumption and fixed investment.The sharp drop in oil prices has led to a positive adjustment in Poland’sexternal accounts, although growing domestic demand willlead the current account deficit to widen in 2017.The right-wing Law and Justice government will continue to slightlywiden the fiscal deficit, and now expect Poland to breach the 3.0%of GDP Maastricht criteria threshold in 2017.

Major Forecast Changes
On the back Brexit-induced uncertainty, we have revised our realGDP growth forecasts down. We now forecast Poland’s economyto expand by 3.6% in 2016 (down from 3.7%) and by 3.1% in 2017from the previously forecast 3.5%.In particular, fixed investment and export growth will decline in 2017due to low confidence across the board.

Table Of Contents

Poland Country Risk Report Q4 2016
Executive Summary.. 5
Core Views...5
Major Forecast Changes.5
Key Risks.5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook.. 7
SWOT Analysis... 7
BMI Economic Risk Index.. 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Brexit And PiS Induced Uncertainty To Drag On Growth8
Brexit-induced uncertainty, in combination with increasingly market-hostile government policies, have prompted us to revise down
Poland's economic growth outlook for 2017. Lower investor confidence in Poland's institutions and weaker demand across the eurozone
will be the two main drags on growth. On the upside, strong wage growth and a rapidly falling unemployment rate will continue to prop
up household consumption in the quarters ahead.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook.. 10
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS..10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS...10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS..10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS10
Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Outlook .. 11
Government Spending To Increase Despite Growth Slowdown...11
Slower real GDP growth amid the fallout from the Brexit referendum will result in Poland breaching the Maastricht criteria's 3.0
%of GDP budget deficit threshold in 2017. Instead of fiscal consolidation, the government will continue to roll out populist spending
policies.
Structural Fiscal Position 13
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS...13
TABLE: MAIN EXPENDITURE and REVENUE CATEGORIES..13
External Trade And Investment Outlook ... 14
Brexit And Domestic Demand Widening CA Deficit...14
Poland's export-oriented sectors will benefit from a weak Polish zloty and solid eurozone demand in the months ahead. For 2017,
however, we expect currency strength and surging domestic demand to significantly widen the current account deficit.
Outlook On External Position.. 15
TABLE: CAPITAL and FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE.15
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS...15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS.16
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS..16
Monetary Policy ... 16
Central Bank To Face Dilemma16
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) will continue to be confronted by negative price growth until the end of 2016, by when inflation is set
to turn positive. Brexit infused uncertainty and lower GDP growth in 2017 will prevent the NBP from significantly raising its benchmark
rate in the quarters ahead.
Monetary Policy Framework 18
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS..18
Currency Forecast 19
PLN: Rebound On Its Way19
The Polish zloty will strengthen in the months ahead due to sound macroeconomic fundamentals and a rising real interest rate
differential with the eurozone. Investor risk aversion on the back of a eurozone banking crisis or a widening rift between Brussels and
Warsaw would undermine the zloty over the long term.
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST...19
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast... 21
The Polish Economy To 2025.. 21
Long-Term Future Looks Bright..21
We forecast Polish real GDP growth to average 3.3% between 2016 and 2025, down from 3.8% between 2005 and 2015. Poland
is well placed to avoid the pitfalls of the middle income trap and continue benefitting from large catch-up growth with the rich EU
economies.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS.21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook... 23
SWOT Analysis. 23
BMI Political Risk Index... 23
Domestic Politics 24
EU Warning To Be Ignored...24
Poland's confrontation with the European Union over the constitutional court crisis is set to worsen in the months ahead. Despite
endangering the country's fiscal stability, the populist Law and Justice government will retain strong public support.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW.24
Long-Term Political Outlook... 26
A Maturing Regional Power..26
We consider Poland's long-term political risk profile to be on an upward trajectory, reflecting the country's maturing political institutions
and greater confidence in the conduct of external affairs. Solid macroeconomic fundamentals underpin our expectation for improvement
over the long run. Nevertheless, Poland still faces significant challenges to political stability in its external relations and at home.
Chapter 4: Operational Risk... 31
SWOT Analysis. 31
Operational Risk Index 31
Operational Risk... 32
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK.32
Market Size And Utilities.. 33
TABLE: EMERGING EUROPE - MARKET SIZE AND UTILITIES RISK33
Labour Costs 37
TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE... 38
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook... 41
Global Macro Outlook.. 41
Brexit To Hit Global Growth.41
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS..41
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %42
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %...43
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS..45

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Ahmad

+1 718 618 4302

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 12000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“Rise in crude oil production worldwide drives the COFI market” The global market size of COFI is estimated to reach USD 1.73 billion by 2021 from 1.32 billion in 2016, at a CAGR of 5.5%. Excessive ...

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

  • $ 7000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Transparency Market Research

The filter bags market report provides an in-depth analysis of the global filter bag market for the period 2014 – 2024, wherein 2015 is the base year and the years from 2016 to 2024 is the forecast period. ...


ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.