1. Market Research
  2. > Energy & Environment
  3. > Energy
  4. > Oil and Gas Energy Market Trends
  5. > Singapore Country Risk Report Q4 2016

Singapore Country Risk Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 45 pages

Core Views

The ruling PAP's landslide victory in 2015's elections, along with acomfortable by-election victory in May 2016, supports our assertionthat the party is experiencing a resurgence in popular support.However, we expect it to broadly retain its policy strategy adopted in2011, as its more consultative approach to governance appears tohave paid significant dividends. This entails a continued emphasison restructuring the labour force away from its dependence on foreigners,as well as strategic investments into productivity-enhancingmeasures.Singapore is likely to experience modest real GDP growth through2017 and we maintain our forecast for real GDP growth to comein at 1.7% in 2016 and 2.2% in 2017. Poor external demand andstructural domestic trends will keep headline GDP growth subdued,although we believe that a marked deterioration in the labour marketremains unlikely owing to the city-state's solid economic foundation.

Major Forecast Changes
We have revised our end-2016 forecast for the Singapore dollarupwards to SGD1.3700/USD (versus SGD1.4000/USD previously)as a result of a stronger than expected performance so far this year,as well as a lower likelihood of interest rate hikes from the US FederalReserve in the near future. For 2017, we expect the currencyto appreciate modestly to SGD1.3400/USD by year-end.

Table Of Contents

Singapore Country Risk Report Q4 2016
Executive Summary.. 5
Core Views...5
Major Forecast Changes.5
Key Risks.5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook.. 7
SWOT Analysis... 7
BMI Economic Risk Index.. 7
Economic Growth Outlook 8
Low Growth Environment To Persist Through 20178
Singapore is likely to experience modest real GDP growth through 2017, and we maintain our forecast for real GDP growth to come
in at 1.7% in 2016 and 2.2% in 2017. Poor external demand and structural domestic trends will keep headline GDP growth subdued,
although we believe that a marked deterioration in the labour market remains unlikely owing to the city-state's solid economic
foundation.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook 9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS..10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS...10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS..10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook.. 11
Staid 2016 Budget Looks Past Near-Term Growth Woes..11
The Singapore government's FY2016/17 fiscal programme eschews short-term demand-side stimulus for measures aimed at improving
the structure of the economy over the long run. While we believe that these measures will bear fruit over the coming years, we note that
the near-term impact on economic growth and productivity will be muted.
Structural Fiscal Position 12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES.12
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS...12
External Trade And Investment Outlook ... 13
Trade Malaise Set To Persist13
Singapore's trade malaise is set to continue as a result of structural manufacturing trends, as well as poor external demand dynamics.
As a result, we have downgraded our 2016 nominal export and import forecasts to contractions of 5.4% and 5.2% respectively, from
1.4% and 1.2% contractions previously.
Outlook On External Position.. 14
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF EXPORTS14
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF IMPORTS.14
TABLE: CAPITAL and FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE.15
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS...15
Monetary Policy 16
Modest Inflation Rebound Likely To Keep MAS On Hold..16
We believe Singapore's headline inflation rate will pick up over the coming quarters, but have nevertheless downgraded our end-2016
inflation forecast to 0.0% (from 1.0% previously) as a result of more persistent than expected deflationary pressures. The MAS faces a
dilemma with rising core inflation, a strengthening nominal effective exchange rate and still-weak headline inflation. However, we believe
that the central bank will most likely stand pat at its biannual monetary policy review in October.
Monetary Policy Framework 18
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS..18
Currency Forecast 19
Neutral On SGD As Fed Threat Fades.19
We have revised our end-2016 forecast for the Singapore dollar upwards to SGD1.3700/USD (versus SGD1.4000/USD previously) as
a result of a stronger than expected performance so far this year, as well as a lower likelihood of interest rate hikes from the US Federal
Reserve in the near future. For 2017, we expect the currency to appreciate modestly to SGD1.3400/USD by year-end.
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST19
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast.. 21
The Singapore Economy To 2025... 21
Solid Growth Trajectory21
We are fairly upbeat on Singapore's longer-term growth prospects to 2025 relative to other developed markets, forecasting real GDP to
expand at an average rate of 2.7% per annum. Key supporting factors will be the government's sound economic policy, a highly skilled
workforce, a superior business environment and financial services industry as well as the city-state's strategic location in Asia. Key
constraints include the economy's reliance on the external sector and Singapore's ageing demographic profile.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS.21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook... 25
SWOT Analysis. 25
BMI Political Risk Index... 25
Domestic Politics. 26
US Defence Ties To Remain Despite China Rebuke..26
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's recent state visit to the US is indicative of Singapore's close diplomatic, economic and defence ties
with the superpower. Despite signs of concern from China, Singapore will continue to adeptly balance its ties between the two, and will
likely allow both countries to selectively utilise Singapore as a port of call for military vessels.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW 26
Long-Term Political Outlook... 27
Political Liberalisation Likely To Be Slow Over Next Decade...27
Singapore faces very limited political risks in the near term and we expect the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) to retain its monopoly
on power through the next two election cycles at a minimum. However, over the longer term, the city-state maycome under greater
pressure from its citizens to become a more vibrant democracy and foster credible opposition parties, and for this reason the PAP will
retain its recent shift towards a more consultative policy-making process.
Chapter 4: Operational Risk... 29
SWOT Analysis. 29
Operational Risk Index 29
Operational Risk .. 30
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK.30
Market Size And Utilities.. 31
TABLE: ASIA - MARKET SIZE AND UTILITIES.32
Labour Costs 35
TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE... 38
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook... 41
Global Macro Outlook.. 41
Brexit To Hit Global Growth.41
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS..41
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %42
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %...43
TABLE: SINGAPORE - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS.45

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Ahmad

+1 718 618 4302

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

Crude Oil Flow Improvers Market by Type, Application, Supply Mode - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 12000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“Rise in crude oil production worldwide drives the COFI market” The global market size of COFI is estimated to reach USD 1.73 billion by 2021 from 1.32 billion in 2016, at a CAGR of 5.5%. Excessive ...

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

Filter Bags Market - Global Industry, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2016 - 2024

  • $ 7000
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by Transparency Market Research

The filter bags market report provides an in-depth analysis of the global filter bag market for the period 2014 – 2024, wherein 2015 is the base year and the years from 2016 to 2024 is the forecast period. ...


ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.