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Electricity MeterReport 2015 Ed 2

  • September 2015
  • -
  • Statplan Energy Ltd
  • -
  • 415 pages

Electricity meter sales will top 173 million meters globally in 2015. After four years flatlining the race is on and sales will accelerate in 2016. Global sales excluding China will increase 22% from 2015 to 2020. Twenty years ago 99% of the world’s meter stock was electromechanical, today it is 66% and this will be down to 44% by 2020. 29% of European LV meters were AMI in 2014 and this is predicted to reach 64% by 2020.The United States market has slowed down following the end of the fiscal stimulus. The long awaited smart meter expansion is beginning in Europe and the Middle East. South America will follow with smart meters and prepay-ment meters. In 2015 smart meters amounted for 35.4% of low voltage (LV) meter sales, and this will rise to 45.7% in 2020. The market for smart meters is taking off but some planned schedules may be overly ambitious , while other deployments will be completed before 2020.A new and escalating trend is prepayment metering (PPM), an old technology with a new twist. In 2015 PPM sales were 11.2% of LV meter sales outside China. This will rise to 14.9% in 2020, an increase of one third in five years. PPM provides an intermediate solution to the chronic problem of energy theft in Asia, especially the Indian sub-content, sub-Saharan Africa and South America.Among manufacturers of meters a new trend is increasing. Asian and African companies are buying established European meter companies to spearhead a drive into global markets.

Table Of Contents

Electricity MeterReport 2015 Ed 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .. 31
The global market for meters .. 31
The installed base of meters 31
The Markets . 32
Europe .. 32
CIS 32
Middle East .. 33
North Africa . 34
Sub-Saharan Africa .. 34
South Africa . 35
Asia Pacific ... 35
Australia ... 35
India . 35
Indonesia .. 36
Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand 36
Japan . 36
Korea and Taiwan 37
China 37
North America . 39
Mexico .. 39
South and Central America (LAC) .. 40
Brazil 40
The business case for smart metering 40
Short and medium term 5 year market forecasts and the long term demand cycle . 41
Market drivers .. 41
Demographic trends and increased electrification. 41
The replacement cycle .. 41
Regulatory or government action 41
The increase in renewable and distributed generation .. 41
TandD losses 42
3
New technology in metering ... 42
1. THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR METERS .. 43
1.1 The long term global impact of Chinese demand .. 47
1.2 The business case for smart metering ... 49
2. SHORT and MEDIUM TERM 5 YEAR MARKET FORECASTS AND THE LONG TERM DEMAND CYCLE 50
2.1 The installed base of meters .. 50
2.2 The demand cycle ... 51
2.3 Technology development - electromechanical, basic electronic, smart meters .. 51
2.4 Varying trends ... 53
3. THE MARKET TRENDS - ELECTROMECHNICAL, BASIC ELECTRONIC, PPM, AMR/AMI . 56
3.1 Electromechanical to electronic 56
3.2 Smart meters .. 56
3.3 Prepayment meters (PPM) 57
4.METER FORECASTS and MARKT PROFILES IN EUROPE ... 59
4.1 Smart meters definition . 60
4.2 EGREG recommendations . 60
4.2.1 Data security and integrity .. 60
4.2.2 Customer services ... 60
4.2.3 Costs and benefits 61
4.2.4 Rollout .. 61
4.3 Smart meter progress .. 61
4.4 ANNUAL DEMAND, EUROPE . 62
4.5 LONG TERM DEMAND TREND ... 63
4.6 Meter vendors 64
4.7 AUSTRIA 66
4.7.1 Meter Owners and Operators . 66
4.7.2 Smart meters definition .. 67
4.7.3 Smart meter progress .. 67
4.7.4 Meter vendors . 68
4.7.5 Annual demand ... 68
4.8 BELGIUM 71
4
4.8.1 Meter Owners and Operators .. 71
4.8.2 Smart meters definition .. 72
4.8.3 Smart meter progress .. 72
4.8.4 Meter vendors . 73
4.8.5 Annual demand,.. 73
4.9 BULGARIA . 76
4.9.1 Meter Owners and Operators . 76
4.9.2 Smart meters definition .. 77
4.9.3 Smart meter progress.. 77
4.9.4 Meter vendors . 77
4.9.5 Annual demand .. 77
4.10 CZECH REPUBLIC ... 80
4.10.1 Meter Owners and Operators 80
4.10.2 Smart meters definition . 81
4.10.3 Smart meter progress . 81
4.10.4 Meter vendors 82
4.10.5 Annual demand . 82
4.11 DENMARK 84
4.11.1 Meter Owners and Operators . 84
4.11.2 Greenland ... 85
4.11.3 Smart meter definition ... 85
4.11.4 Smart meter progress . 85
4.11.5 Meter vendors . 85
4.11.6 Annual demand .. 86
4.12 ESTONIA .. 88
4.12.1 Meter Owners and Operators 88
4.12.2 Smart meters definition . 89
4.12.3 Smart meter progress . 89
4.12.4 Meter vendors 89
4.12.5 Annual demand.. 89
4.13 FINLAND .. 92
4.13.1 Meter Owners and Operators 92
5
4.13.2 Smart meters definition . 93
4.13.3 Smart meter progress . 93
4.13.4 Meter vendors 94
4.13.5 Annual demand .. 94
4.14 FRANCE 97
4.14.1 Meter Owners and Operators 97
4.14.2 Smart meters definition 98
4.14.3 Smart meter progress 98
4.14.4 Linky pilot .. 99
4.14.5 Rollout ... 100
4.14.6 Meter vendors ... 100
4.14.7 Annual demand 101
4.15 GERMANY ... 103
4.15.1 Meter Owners and Operators ... 103
4.15.2 Smart meters definition 104
4.15.3 Smart meter progress 104
4.15.4 Pilots and trials . 104
4.15.5 The path to a rollout . 105
4.15.6 Meter vendors ...106
4.15.7 Annual demand. 107
4.16 GREECE ...109
4.16.1 Meter Owners and Operators ...109
4.16.2 Smart meters definition ... 110
4.16.3 Smart meter progress ... 110
4.16.4 Meter vendors ... 110
4.16.5 Annual demand 110
4.17 HUNGARY 113
4.17.1 Meter Owners and Operators 113
4.17.2 Smart meters definition 114
4.16.3 Smart meter progress ... 114
4.17.4 Meter vendors ... 114
4.17.5 Annual demand.. 115
6
4.18 IRELAND .. 117
4.18.1 Meter Owners and Operators 117
4.18.2 Smart meters definition ... 118
4.18.3 Smart meter progress ... 118
4.18.4 Meter vendors ... 118
4.18.5 Annual demand 118
4.19 ITALY 121
4.19.1 Meter Owners and Operators 121
4.19.2 Smart meters definition ... 122
4.19.3 Smart meter progress ... 123
4.19.4 Meter vendors ... 124
4.19.5 Annual demand 124
4.20 LATVIA ... 127
4.20.1 Meter Owners and Operators .. 127
4.20.2 Smart meters definition ... 127
4.209.3 Smart meters progress ... 128
4.20.4 Meter vendors .. 128
4.20.5 Annual demand 128
4.21 LITHUANIA .. 131
4.21.1 Meter Owners and Operators 131
4.21.2 Smart meters definition 132
4.21.3 Smart meters progress .. 132
4.21.4 Meter vendors ... 132
4.21.5 Annual demand. 133
4.22 NETHERLANDS .. 135
4.22.1 Meter Owners and Operators .. 135
4.22.2 Smart meters definition ... 136
4.22.3 Smart meters progress . 136
4.22.4 Meter vendors .. 136
4.22.5 Annual demand 136
4.23 NORWAY 139
4.23.1 Meter Owners and Operators .. 139
7
4.23.2 Smart meters definition ... 140
4.23.3 Smart meters progress . 140 4.23.4 Meter vendors .. 140
4.23.5 Annual demand 141
4.24 POLAND . 143
4.24.1 Meter Owners and Operators .. 143
4.24.2 Smart meters definition ... 144
4.24.4 Meter vendors .. 145
4.24.5 Annual demand 145
4.25 PORTUGAL . 148
4.25.1 Meter Owners and Operators .. 148
4.25.2 Smart meters definition ... 149
4.25.3 Smart meters progress . 149
4.25.4 Meter vendors .. 149
4.25.5 Annual demand 150
4.26 ROMANIA ... 152
4.26.1 Meter Owners and Operators .. 152
4.26.2 Smart meters definition ... 153
4.26.3 Smart meters progress . 153
4.26.4 Meter vendors .. 153
4.26.5 Annual demand 153
4.27 SLOVAKIA .. 156
4.27.1 Meter Owners and Operators .. 156
4.27.2 Smart meters definition ... 157
4.27.3 Smart meters progress . 157
4.27.4 Meter vendors .. 157
4.27.5 Annual demand 157
4.28 SLOVENIA ..160
4.28.1 Meter Owners and Operators ..160
2.28.2 Smart meters definition ... 161
4.28.3 Smart meters progress . 161
4.28.4 Meter vendors .. 161
8
4.28.5 Annual demand 162
4.29 SPAIN .. 164
4.29.1 Meter Owners and Operators .. 165
4.29.2 Smart meters definition ... 165
4.29.3 Smart meters progress .166
4.29.4 Hacking security ..166
2 29.5 Meter vendors .. 167
4.29.6 Annual demand ... 167
4.30 SWEDEN . 170
4.30.1 Meter Owners and Operators .. 170
4.30.2 Smart meters definition 171
4.30.3 Smart meters progress .. 171 4.30.4 Meter vendors ... 171
4.30.5 Annual demand 172
4.31 SWITZERLAND ... 174
4.31.1 Meter Owners and Operators ... 174
4.31.2 Smart meters definition 175
4.31.3 Smart meters progress .. 175
4.31.4 Meter vendors ... 176
4.31.5 Annual demand . 176
4.32 TURKEY... 178
4.32.1 Meter Owners and Operators .. 178
4.32.2 Prepayment meters .. 179
4.32.3 Electricity losses ... 179
4.32.4 Smart meters definition ... 179
4.32.5 Smart meters progress . 180
4.32.6 Meter vendors .. 180
4.32.7 Annual demand 181
4.33 UNITED KINGDOM ... 184
4.33.1 Meter Owners and Operators ... 184
4.33.2 Prepayment meters .. 186
4.33.3 Smart meters definition ... 186
9
4.33.4 Smart grid cost . 187
4.33.5 Smart grid programme . 187
4.33.5.1 Foundation stage 188
4.33.5.2 SMETS 189
4.33.5.3 DCC 189
4.33.5.4 DCC licence ...190
4.33.5.5 Data service provider contract ..190
4.33.5.6 Communications service provider contract for the North region...190
4.33.5.7 Communications service provider contract for the Centre and South ...190
4.33.6 Energy company initiatives .190
4.33.7 Consumer awareness 191
4.33.8 Annual demand 192
5 METER FORECASTS FOR CIS 194
5.1 Meter Owners and Operators ... 194
5.2 Smart meters progress .. 195
5.3 Annual demand . 195
5.4 Long term demand trend . 197
5.5 RUSSIA ..198
5.5.1 Meter Owners and Operators 198
5.5.2 Energy efficiency ... 200
5.5.3 Smart meters definition 200
5.5.4 Smart meters progress .. 200
5.5.5 Meter vendors. 201
5.5.6 Annual demand . 202
5.6 UKRAINE . 204
5.6.1 Meter Owners and Operators ... 204
5.6.2 Smart meters definition 205
5.6.3 Short term demand ... 205
5.6.4 Meter vendors ... 205
5.6.5 Annual demand . 205
6 METER FORECASTS FOR THE MIDDLE EAST ... 208
6.1 MIDDLE EAST .. 208
10
6.1.1 Smart meter progress . 209
6.1.2 Saudi Arabia ... 209
6.1.3 Iran .. 210
6.1.4 United Arab Emirates . 210
6.1.5 Bahrain 210
6.1.6 Qatar ... 210
6.1.7 Kuwait .. 211
6.1.8 Israel . 211
6.1.9 Jordan ... 211
6.1.10 Annual demand .. 211
6.1.11 Long term demand trend ... 213
6.2 IRAN .. 214
6.2.1 Meter Owners and Operators 214
6.2.2 Energy losses .. 215
6.2.3 Smart meter progress - the Faham Project ... 215
6.2.3.1 The eight candidate Iranian EPC companies .. 216
6.2.3.2 The eleven foreign candidate solution providers and meter manufacturers ... 216
6.2.3.3 The winners . 216
6.2.3.4 Roadmap for Faham 216
6.2.4 Meter vendors 216
6.2.5 Annual demand .. 217
7 NORTH AFRICA . 220
7.1 Smart meters progress ... 221
7.1.1 Algeria .. 221
7.1.2 Morocco .. 221
7.1.3 Sudan ... 221
7.2 EGYPT .. 222
7.2.1 Meter Owners and Operators ... 222
7.2.2 Smart meters progress .. 223
7.2.3 Meter vendors 223
7.2.4 Annual demand . 224
8 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 226
11
8.1 Success at Last .. 226
8.2 Electrical growth .. 228
8.3 Annual demand 230
8.4 Long term demand trend 230
8.5 SOUTH AFRICA ... 231
8.5.1 Meter Owners and Operators 231
8.5.2 Prepayment Meters 231
8.5.3 Smart meters progress ...233
8.5.4 Meter vendors 233
8.5.5 Annual demand . 234
8.6 RAPID DEVELOPERS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ... 236
8.6.1 ANGOLA 238
8.6.1.1 Power sector 238
8.6.1.2 Metering .. 239
8.6.2 ETHIOPIA . 240
8.6.2.1 Power sector ... 240
8.6.2.2 Metering .. 241
8.6.2.3 Meter Vendors 242
8.6.3 GHANA . 243
8.6.3.1 Power sector 244
8.6.3.2 Metering . 244
8.6.3.3 Smart meters progress ... 245
8.6.4 KENYA .. 246
8.6.4.1 Power sector ... 246
8.6.4.2 Metering . 247
8.6.5 NIGERIA 247
8.6.5.1 Power sector 248
8.6.5.2 Metering . 250
8.6.5.3 Meter vendors 252
8.6.5.4 Meter licences 253
8.6.6 TANZANIA ... 254
8.6.6.1 Power sector ... 255
12
8.6.6.2 Metering . 255
8.6.6.3 Prepayment meters 256
9 METER FORECASTS FOR ASIA PACIFIC . 257
9.1 Smart grids 258
9.2 Annual demand ... 258
9.3 Long term demand trend 260
9.4 AUSTRALIA .. 261
9.4.1 Meter Owners and Operators 261
9.4.2 Smart meters progress .. 262
9.4.3 Meter vendors ... 264
9.5 INDIA ... 267
9.5.1 Meter Owners and Operators ... 267
9.5.2 Rural electrification .. 269
9.5.3 Losses in the ESI 269
9.5.4 Prepayment meters 271
9.5.5 Smart grid ... 271
9.5.5.1 Smart grid size 272
9.5.5.2 Drivers for the Indian smart grid .. 272
9.5.5.3 Smart meters specification and rollout . 272
9.5.6 Meter vendors ... 273
9.5.7 Annual demand . 274
9.5.8 Prices . 276
9.6 INDONESIA . 277
9.6.1 Meter Owners and Operators ... 277
9.6.2 Prepayment meters ... 279
9.6.3 Meter vendors ... 279
9.6.4 Annual demand 280
9.7 JAPAN .. 283
9.7.1 Meter Owners and Operators ... 283
9.7.2 The existing grid ... 284
9.7.3 Service life of meters . 284
9.7.4 The impact of Fukushima . 284
13
9.7.5 Japanese government and business response .. 285
9.7.6 Smart grid . 286
9.7.7 Leading players in the smart grid space ... 287
9.7.8 Smart meters . 288
9.7.9 Tepco suppliers . 289
9.7.10 Annual demand ... 290
9.8 SOUTH KOREA ... 292
9.8.1 Meter Owners and Operators ... 292
9.8.2 AMR ... 294
9.8.3 Smart grid .. 294
9.8.4 Smart grid investment .. 296
9.8.5 Smart grid test bed project - Jeju Island .. 296
9.8.6 Smart Meters 297
9.8.7 Annual demand 298
9.9 MALAYSIA ... 300
9.9.1 Meter Owners and Operators ... 300
9.9.2 Installed meters - 2013 ... 301
9.9.3 Smart meters . 302
9.9.4 Annual demand 303
9.10 NEW ZEALAND . 305
9.10.1 Meter Owners and Operators .. 305
9.10.2 Smart meters 306
9.10.3 Annual demand ... 306
9.11 PHILIPPINES ... 309
9.11.1 Meter Owners and Operators ... 309
9.11.2 Prepayment meters ... 310
9.11.3 Smart meters ... 311
9.11.4 Annual demand . 312
9.12 TAIWAN .. 314
9.12.1 Meter Owners and Operators ... 314
9.12.2 Prepayment meters ... 315
9.12.3 Smart meters . 315
14
9.12.4 Meter vendors ... 316
9.12.5 Annual demand 317
9.13 THAILAND .. 319
9.13.1 Meter Owners and Operators ... 319
9.13.2 Prepayment meters .. 320
9.13.3 Smart grid . 320
9.13.4 Smart meters . 321
9.13.5 Status of PEA AMR/AMI deployment . 322
9.13.6 Meter vendors .. 322
9.13.7 Annual demand 322
9.14 VIETNAM ... 325
9.14.1 Meter Owners and Operators .. 325
9.14.2 Prepayment meters.. 327
9.14.3 Smart meters 327
9.14.4 Annual demand ... 328
9.15 CHINA 330
9.15. 1 Meter owners and operators ... 330
9.15.2 Total market .. 331
9.15.3 Electricity meters in China ... 333
9.15.4 Service lives of meters . 334
9.15.5 Meter production . 334
9.15.6 Metering coverage ... 334
9.15.7 Tender evaluation and bidding procedure .. 335
9.15.8 Smart grid 336
9.15.8.1 Background 336
9.15.8.2 Smart grid Initiatives and rollout targets .337
9.15.8.3 Targets for smart grid roll-out ..337
9.15.9 Renewables .. 338
9.15.10 Chinese smart grid meters . 338
9.15.11 Smart meter definitions .. 339
9.15.12 Communications 339
9.15.13 Chinese overseas partnerships ... 339
15
9.15.14 Meter vendors . 340
9.15.14.1 Chinese vendors ... 340
9.15.14.2 Foreign vendors 341
9.15.15 Annual demand .. 341
9.15.16 Long term demand trend ... 343
10 NORTH AMERICA 344
10.1 UNITED STATES . 345
10.1.1 Meter Owners and Operators ... 345
10.1.2 Electricity consumers ... 346
10.1.3 Transition from electromechanical meters to electronic meters ... 347
10.1.4 Smart meters 348
10.1.5 Meter vendors ... 348
10.1.6 Annual demand 349
10.1.7 Long term demand trend . 350
10.2 CANADA . 352
10.2.1 Meter Owners and Operators .. 352
10.2.2 Prepayment meters ... 353
10.2.3 Smart meters 354
10.2.4 Annual demand ... 355
10.3 MEXICO .. 357
10.3.1 Meter Owners and Operators .. 357
10.3.2 Prepayment meters .. 358
10.3.3 TandD losses 358
10.3.4 Smart meters 359
10.3.5 Annual demand 359
11 SOUTH AMERICA . 362
11.1 Smart meters 363
11.2 Meter vendors .. 364
11.3 Annual demand ... 364
11.4 Long term demand trend 366
11.5 ARGENTINA 367
11.5.1 Meter Owners and Operators ... 367
16
11.5.2 TandD losses . 368
11.5.3 Prepayment meters ... 368
11.5.4 Smart meter definition . 368
11.5.5 Smart meters progress .. 369
11.5.6 Meter vendors ... 369
11.5.7Annual demand . 369
11.6 BRAZIL 372
11.6.1 Meter Owners and Operators ... 372
11.6.2 TandD losses .373
11.6.3 Smart meters definition ... 374
11.6.4 Smart meters 374
11.6.5 Meter vendors ... 375
11.6.6 Annual demand 376
11.7 CHILE .. 378
11.7.1Meter Owners and Operators 378
11.7.2 TandD losses and energy efficiency . 379
11.7.3 Smart meters definition 379
11.7.4 Smart meters progress .. 379
11.7.5 Meter vendors ... 380
11.7.6 Annual demand 380
12 CENTRAL AMERICA and CARIBBEAN (not including Mexico) 382
12.1 Smart meters progress . 382
12.2 Annual demand .. 383
12.3 Long term demand trend ... 383
13 MARKET DRIVERS ... 384
13.1 Demographic trends 384
13.1.1 Population and Households .. 384
13.1.2 Electrification of households 385
13.2 The replacement cycle 386
13.3 Regulatory and government action 386
13.4 Renewables and the smart grid .. 387
13.5 Reduction of technical losses . 387
17
13.6 New technology of meters .. 388
14 METER PRICE TRENDS AND COST FACTORS .. 389
14.1 Input prices .. 389
14.1 The experience curve .. 389
14.3 Competition 390
14.4 Production capacity 390
15 METER VENDORS AND MARKET SHARES 391
15.1 The addressable market ... 391
15.2 North America 394
15.3 Europe . 394
15.4 CIS ... 399
15.5 MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA . 400
15.6 ASIA-PACIFIC .. 401
15.7 CHINA . 405
15.8 LATIN AMERICA 405
16 MANUFACTURER PROFILES - GLOBAL LEADERS AND RISING STARS ... 407
GLOBAL LEADERS 407
16.1 Landis+Gyr .. 407
16.2 Itron 408
16.3 Elster ... 409
16.4 Sensus .. 410
16.5 GE Digital Energy 410
16.6 Echelon Corporation ... 410
16.7 THE RISING STARS 411
16.7.1 El Sewedy - Electrometer - Iskra - ZPA ... 412
16.7.2 ADD Grup ..... 412
16.7.3 ZIV (CG) 413
16.7.4 Mitsubishi . 413
16.7.5 Osaki . 413
16.8 TECHNOLOGY LEADERS .. 413
16.8.1 Aclara . 414
16.8.2 Silver Spring .. 414
18
12.8.3 Trilliant .. 414

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