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Central America Agribusiness Report Q4 2014

  • October 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 129 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The region is still struggling with disease outbreaks in the coffee sector in 2013/14. We believe the region will continue to suffer as low global coffee prices limit investment potential. Even if prices have rebounded recently, we believe they are overstretched and see them going back towards the USc140-150/lb level in the near term. Central America is generally dependent on imports for corn, and we expect the production deficit to widen over our forecast period. That said, Central America is expected to remain selfsufficient in sugar and even increase its potential for sugar exports. The sugar industry has the potential to attract investment over the medium term.

Key Forecasts

- Coffee production growth to 2017/18: 10.9% to 14.9mn bags. We believe the coffee sector will continue to battle with disease and weather problems, while low global prices will limit investment in the crop, at least in the coming years. We see more potential for the sector in the long term.

Table Of Contents

Central America Agribusiness Report Q4 2014
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Livestock Outlook 11
Table: Select Countries - Beef and Veal Production and Consumption 11
Table: Select Countries - Pork Production and Consumption 12
Table: Select Countries - Poultry Production and Consumption 12
Table: Select Countries - Beef and Veal Production and Consumption 14
Table: Select Countries - Pork Production and Consumption 15
Table: Select Countries - Poultry Production and Consumption 15
Grains Outlook 16
Table: Select Countries - Corn Production and Consumption 17
Table: Select Countries - Corn Production and Consumption 20
Coffee Outlook 22
Table: Select Countries - Coffee Production and Consumption 23
Table: Select Countries - Coffee Production and Consumption 25
Sugar Outlook 26
Table: Select Countries - Sugar Production and Consumption 27
Table: Obesity Rates By Country/Region 31
Table: Select Countries - Sugar Production and Consumption 32
Commodities Price Analysis 33
Monthly Softs Strategy 33
Table: SELECT COMMODITIES - PERFORMANCE and BMI FORECASTS 40
Monthly Grains Strategy 41
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 48
Upstream Analysis 49
Americas GM Outlook 49
Americas Machinery Outlook 56
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 62
Downstream Analysis 67
Food 67
Food Consumption 67
Table: Guatemala - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018 68
Table: Costa Rica - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018 68
Table: El Salvador - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018 69
Table: Honduras - Food Consumption Indicators, 2011-2018 69
Confectionery 69
Meat 70
Table: El Salvador - Meat Volume Sales, Production and Trade, 2011-2018 70
Jams and Jellies 72
Table: El Salvador - Jams and Jellies Volume Sales, Production and Trade, 2011-2018 72
Pasta 72
Table: El Salvador - Pasta Volume Sales, Production and Trade, 2011-2018 73
Prepared Fish 73
Table: El Salvador - Fish Volume Sales, Production and Trade, 2011-2018 74
Table: Costa Rica - Fish Volume Sales, Production and Trade, 2011-2018 74
Oils and Fats 76
Table: Costa Rica - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production and Trade, 2011-2018 77
Table: Guatemala - Soya Bean Oil Volume Sales, Production and Trade, 2011-2018 78
Table: El Salvador - Margarine Volume Sales, Production and Trade, 2011-2018 79
Dairy 79
Table: El Salvador - Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade, 2011-2018 80
Drink 84
Hot Drinks 84
Table: Guatemala Coffee Sales, 2011-2018 85
Table: Costa Rica Coffee Sales, 2011-2018 85
Table: El Salvador Coffee Sales, 2011-2018 85
Table: Honduras Coffee Sales, 2011-2018 85
Alcoholic Drinks 86
Table: Guatemala Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2018 86
Table: Costa Rica Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2018 87
Table: El Salvador Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2011-2018 87
Table: Honduras Alcohol Sales, 2011-2018 87
Soft Drinks 88
Table: Guatemala Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018 88
Table: Costa Rica Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018 89
Table: El Salvador Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018 89
Table: Honduras Soft Drink Sales, 2011-2018 90
Mass Grocery Retail 91
Table: Regional Sales Breakdown By Retail Format, %, 2012-2022 91
Table: Guatemala Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018 92
Table: Costa Rica Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018 92
Table: El Salvador Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018 93
Table: Honduras Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2011-2018 93
Regional Overview 94
Demographic Forecast 100
Belize 100
Table: Belize's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 101
Table: Belize's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 102
Table: Belize's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 103
Table: Belize's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 103
Costa Rica 104
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 105
Table: Costa Rica's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 106
Table: Costa Rica's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 107
Table: Costa Rica's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 107
El Salvador 108
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 109
Table: El Salvador's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 110
Table: El Salvador's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 111
Table: El Salvador's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 111
Guatemala 112
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 113
Table: Guatemala's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 114
Table: Guatemala's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 115
Table: Guatemala's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 115
Honduras 116
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 117
Table: Honduras' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 118
Table: Honduras' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 119
Table: Honduras' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 119
Nicaragua 120
Table: Nicaragua's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 121
Table: Nicaragua's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 122
Table: Nicaragua's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 123
Table: Nicaragua's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 123
Panama 124
Table: Panama's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 125
Table: Panama's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 126
Table: Panama's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 127
Table: Panama's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 127
Methodology 128
Industry Forecast Methodology 128
Sector-Specific Methodology 129

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