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  5. > Central America Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Central America Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 97 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Central America's agribusiness industry will continue to grow - albeit inconsistently across sectors - through to the end of our forecast period in 2019/20. Along the way, the different sectors of the market will be forced to fight against headwinds that will directly impact output growth across some countries in the region. As a result of rising incomes and growing populations, as well as an improving real GDP outlook for the region, demand growth will outstrip supply growth in the livestock and grains sectors over the next five years. Future risks for the agribusiness market include disease (predominantly coffee rust disease, or roya) and the potential impact of La Niña (which has a 50-75% chance of appearing during the remainder of H216 and lingering into H117) on food security in the region.


Key Forecasts

- We have revised downwards our forecasts for both beef production and consumption in Guatemala for 2016 and for each full-year period through to 2020. We now see production closing 2016 at 75,000 tonnes (down by 6% y-o-y), before remaining flat through our forecast period and remaining at a level of 75,000 tonnes in 2020. In addition, we see consumption finishing 2016 at a level of 91,000 tonnes (flat yo- y), and demand reaching a level of 103,000 tonnes by 2010 - an average increase of 3.0% across the forecast period.

Table Of Contents

Central America Agribusiness Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Agribusiness 8
Industry Forecast 10
Livestock Outlook 10
Latest Updates 10
Table: Central America - Livestock Production and Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 11
Structural Trends 12
Table: Selected Countries - Beef and Veal Production and Consumption 13
Table: Select Countries - Pork Production and Consumption 13
Grains Outlook 14
Latest Updates 14
Table: Central America - Corn Production and Consumption Outlook 15
Table: Risks To Outlook 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Select Countries - Corn Production and Consumption 15
Coffee Outlook 17
Latest Updates 17
Table: Central America - Coffee Production and Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Risks To Outlook 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Select Countries - Coffee Production and Consumption 20
Sugar Outlook 20
Latest Updates 20
Table: Central America - Sugar Production and Consumption Outlook 21
Table: Risks To Outlook 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Select Countries - Sugar Production and Consumption 23
Commodities Price Analysis 24
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 24
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 24
Upstream Analysis 26
Americas GM Outlook 26
Americas Machinery Outlook 34
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 37
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 41
Downstream Analysis 48
Central America Agribusiness Report Q4 2016$$
Industry Forecast 48
Latest Updates 48
Structural Trends 49
Table: Latin America Food Forecasts 50
Table: Latin America Non-Alcoholic Drinks Forecasts 52
Table: Latin America Alcoholic Drinks Forecasts 54
Regional Overview 55
Six Key Themes For The Americas Agribusiness 55
Demographic Forecast 61
Demographic Outlook 61
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Belize 1990-2025) 62
Table: Key Population Ratios (Belize 1990-2025) 62
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Belize 1990-2025) 63
Table: Population By Age Group (Belize 1990-2025) 63
Table: Population By Age Group % (Belize 1990-2025) 64
Demographic Outlook 65
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 67
Table: Key Population Ratios (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 67
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 68
Table: Population By Age Group (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 68
Table: Population By Age Group % (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 69
Demographic Outlook 70
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Guatemala 1990-2025) 72
Table: Key Population Ratios (Guatemala 1990-2025) 72
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Guatemala 1990-2025) 73
Table: Population By Age Group (Guatemala 1990-2025) 73
Table: Population By Age Group % (Guatemala 1990-2025) 74
Demographic Outlook 75
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Honduras 1990-2025) 77
Table: Key Population Ratios (Honduras 1990-2025) 77
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Honduras 1990-2025) 78
Table: Population By Age Group (Honduras 1990-2025) 78
Table: Population By Age Group % (Honduras 1990-2025) 79
Demographic Outlook 80
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 82
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 82
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 83
Table: Population By Age Group (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 83
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 84
Demographic Outlook 85
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Panama 1990-2025) 87
Table: Key Population Ratios (Panama 1990-2025) 87
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Panama 1990-2025) 88
Table: Population By Age Group (Panama 1990-2025) 88
Table: Population By Age Group % (Panama 1990-2025) 89
Demographic Outlook 90
Table: Population Headline Indicators (El Salvador 1990-2025) 92
Central America Agribusiness Report Q4 2016$$
Table: Key Population Ratios (El Salvador 1990-2025) 92
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (El Salvador 1990-2025) 93
Table: Population By Age Group (El Salvador 1990-2025) 93
Table: Population By Age Group % (El Salvador 1990-2025) 94
Methodology 96
Industry Forecast Methodology 96
Sector-Specific Methodology 97

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