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Nigeria Power Report Q4 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 68 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

We have maintained our moribund forecast for growth in electricity generation and capacitythis quarter, amid a bleak economic outlook, ongoing disruptions to gas supplies from the Niger Delta andnaira weakness. Our view is Nigeria is set to undergo a painful multi-year adjustment to lower oil priceshas significant implications for investment in the power sector and compounds our negative outlook forcapacity expansion - with private players likely to delay or cancel investment in the power sector until theeconomy stabilises.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends


- This list of broader economic challenges facing Nigeria has compounded our negative outlook for thedomestic power sector and - when economic challenges are viewed in conjunction with sector-specificrisks - there is limited upside to our forecast. Companies in the Nigerian power sector will continue to behit by oil and gas pipeline sabotage, an inability to access the foreign exchange needed to buy equipmentand a lack of liquidity in the distribution segment.

- We maintained our conservative power generation and capacity forecast in light of severe disruptions togas supply to power plants - amid continued violence and attacks on pipeline infrastructure in the NigerDelta. We forecast gas-fired electricity generation will contract by almost 16% in 2016 and note investorshave started to cancel planned gas power projects.

- The gas supply problems have led to an increase in government rhetoric related to energy mixdiversification. The minister for Power, Works and Housing, Babatunde Fashola said in August 2016 coalwould play a bigger role in the country's future electricity mix. NBET is currently working on a tariff forcoal-to-power generation that would underpin future PPAs.

Table Of Contents

Nigeria Power Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Nigeria Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Nigeria 2015-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Nigeria 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Nigeria Power Forecast Scenario 11
Table: APC: Manifesto Needs To Be Fleshed Out 15
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast 17
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecast 21
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast 22
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 23
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 25
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 28
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019) 28
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2020-2025) 29
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019) 30
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2020-2025) 30
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019) 31
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2020-2025) 32
Transmission and Distribution 32
Transmission and Distribution 34
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019) 34
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2020-2025) 34
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 35
SSA Power Risk/Reward Index 35
Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100) 42
Nigeria Power Risk/Reward Index 43
Rewards 43
Risks 43
Market Overview 45
Key Policies/Market Structure 45
Regulation and Competition 45
Table: PHCN Successor Companies 45
Pricing 46
Nigeria Power Projects Database 50
Competitive Landscape 53
Regional Overview 54
MEA: Key Themes 54
Table: UAE - Huge Bid Reductions Cements Outperformer Status 59
Glossary 62
Table: Glossary Of Terms 62
Methodology 63
Methodology And Sources 63
Industry Forecast Methodology 63
Sources 66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 66
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 67
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 68

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