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Benin Country Risk Report 2015

  • August 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 25 pages

Core Views

Annual real GDP growth in Benin will average 5.2% between 2015and 2024 as consumer spending increases and the country's politicalstability engenders elevated levels of fixed investment. Nevertheless,sporadic electricity supply and reliance on cotton productionwill hold back the pace of economic development.Benin's political landscape shows little sign of fragility and will remainone of the most stable, open and accountable in West Africa in theyears ahead, enjoined by a free press and a multitude of politicalparties. Nevertheless, the country faces challenges in the long term,including an overspill of violence from piracy and terrorist activity inthe region, as well as the potential for tribal/ethnic schisms to open.

Table Of Contents

Benin Country Risk Report 2015
Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Key Risks To Outlook5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Index 7
Domestic Politics 8
2016 Election Creates Uncertainty, But Risks Contained8
It now looks highly unlikely that president Thomas Boni Yayi will seek a third term in office, thereby avoiding what would have been a
key source of social tension and political risk
TABLE: Political Overview8
Long-Term Political Outlook 10
A Standard-Bearer For The Region10
Benin's political landscape shows little sign of fragility and will remain one of the most stable, open and accountable in West Africa in the
years ahead, enjoined by a free press and a multitude of political parties
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Index 13
Economic Activity 14
Growth Rate Will Remain Robust On Cotton Expansion14
We have raised our forecast for real GDP growth in Benin to 56% in 2015, from a previous 52%, as the economy benefits from
increased cotton production and public investment While the overall outlook is relatively sanguine, there are downside risks from
increased political uncertainty, deficient energy infrastructure and strengthening external headwinds
Long-Term Economic Outlook 15
Stable Growth, But Cotton Reliance Poses Risks15
Annual real GDP growth in Benin will average 52% between 2015 and 2024 as consumer spending increases and the country's political
stability engenders elevated levels of fixed investment Nevertheless, sporadic electricity supply and reliance on cotton production will
hold back the pace of economic development, impeding efforts to reduce poverty levels amid a growing population
tABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts16
Chapter 3: Demographic Outlook 19
Demographic Outlook 2015 19
table: Population By Age Group (BENIN 1990-2025)20
table: Population By Age Group % (BENIN 1990-2025)20
table: Population Headline Indicators (BENIN 1990-2025)21
table: Key Population Ratios (BENIN 1990-2025)21
table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (BENIN 1990-2025) 21
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook 23
Global Macro Outlook 23
China Crisis To Have Far-Reaching Impact23
Table: Global Assumptions23
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %24
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 24
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %25

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